Race Gets Tighter For Md. Gubernatorial Candidates (Ehrlich 47, Kennedy Townsend 46)

NBC$ ^ | Oct. 30, 2002 | Mason Dixon Poll

[jern]

WASHINGTON -- The two gubernatorial candidates in Maryland are working hard to get out the vote just one week before the general elections, NEWS4 reports. The latest NEWS4/Mason-Dixon poll shows Maryland Republican gubernatorial candidate Rep. Bob Ehrlich is once again leading Democrat Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. And, voter turn out could be a key in the campaign's final days, NEWS4 reports.

The NEWS4/Mason-Dixon poll released Wednesday shows Ehrlich taking a one percentage point lead over Townsend. It has been a back-and-forth battle, but Ehrlich currently has 47 percent to Townsend's 46 percent.

Last month, it was Townsend who was ahead by one point. But, with a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points, the race continues to be a dead heat.

Dr. Sandra O'Connor, a professor of government at American University, talked to NEWS4 about the campaign landscape. "Everyone wants to be the person with momentum going into the election the weekend before," she said.

NEWS4 reports Townsend has an overwhelming lead in Baltimore city, and is well ahead of her opponent in the Washington suburbs -- Montgomery and Prince George's counties.

But, Ehrlich is expected to win every other region of the state. The NEWS4/Mason-Dixon poll shows him leading in Baltimore County, the central Maryland suburbs, the eastern shore and western Maryland. (See map, at left.)

Larry Harris, who is with Mason-Dixon polls, spoke with NEWS4 about the campaigns, and how they've progressed.

"He's been running pretty much a mistake-free campaign. He seems to have been able to successfully blunt the charges of being a right-wing Republican, or, the Democratic party would say, he's been able to disguise his record," Harris said.

Ehrlich is leading among males and whites, as seen below.
Male voters

• Ehrlich, 55 percent
• Townsend, 42 percent
  
  White voters
  
• Ehrlich, 58 percent
• Townsend, 34 percent
  
  But, NEWS4 reports Townsend has the overwhelming lead among African-Americans and women, as seen below.
  African-American voters
  
• Townsend, 86 percent
• Ehrlich, 9 percent
  
  Women voters
• Townsend, 51 percent
• Ehrlich, 39 percent
  

  Analysts say voter turnout will be a major factor in determining who will become Maryland's next governor.

  O'Connor told NEWS4 a low turnout could cost Townsend the election.

  "She's got to get voters out in traditionally African-American neighborhoods, she's running very strongly with African-American voters. And, she's running very strongly with women voters. So, she has to make certain that those two groups, and people who are very concerned about gun control, hear her message and get out and vote," she said.

  O'Connor says the weekend before the election is always important, but this year takes on special significance. She says many voters in the Washington-area haven't been tuned into politics because of the sniper killings. She says a lot of decisions could be made this weekend, and both parities are making an extraordinary effort to get out the vote.

  Harris said if Ehrlich can cut into Townsend's base -- just a little -- then he'll be the one headed to Annapolis.

  "He's only gotta make a smidgen of difference. The race is so close at this point, he's doing what he's got to do in this state for a Republican to get elected. And, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend is not doing what a Democrat has to do in Baltimore city, Prince George's County and even in progressive Montgomery County," he said.

  Click here for more politics coverage on NBC4.com.
  
  Stay tuned to NEWS4 and refresh NBC4.com often for up-to-the-minute Decision 2002 team coverage.

  Copyright 2002 by nbc4.com. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

  
  
  
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[OrioleFan]

galore (anagram) al gore

[demkicker]

Please join me in prayer.

Dear Heavenly Father,

Please bless our nation and the Bush administration. If it is your will, dear Lord, please bless the Republican party with bountiful victories which will allow respective winners who love this country, the ability to govern justly.

Amen

[Eva]

Most Blacks that I know, are not interested in politics, at all. They vote the way they are told to vote and believe everything that their Black "leaders" tell them.

[rintense]

Just a bigger challenge to me- a challenge to instruct them in the err of their thinking!

[nononsense]

I am one black who will not vote for that demon KKT. She and other demon have spent this state into an one billion dollar deficit. Every time I breath, I feel like I am being taxed. Its only my faith in God that let's me leave my house. Otherwise, I would be terrified of being robbed or killed because I am not allowed take advantage of 2nd amendment right. Meanwhile, she has state troopers protecting her.

[Loyolas Mattman]

Very, very good.

The worst part is that Ehrlich is exactly the tonic to cure what ails our state. In contrast, I wanted Sauerbrey to win in 94, but somehow, I just didn't see her as governor material.

Ehrlich just looks and sounds the part. He's not as conservative as I would like, but heck, Maryland isn't as conservative as I would like...

[GOPJ]

bump

[dalebert]

You know its bad if the Dems are bringing in Gore to help.

[DC native]

And if you decide to kick that carpetbagger back to Massachusetts, that'd be ok, too.

[verity]

Re your # 10.

We shall need tall fences and razor wire!

[demkicker]

"I am one black who will not vote for that demon KKT. She and other demon have spent this state into an one billion dollar deficit. Every time I breath, I feel like I am being taxed. Its only my faith in God that let's me leave my house. Otherwise, I would be terrified of being robbed or killed because I am not allowed take advantage of 2nd amendment right. Meanwhile, she has state troopers protecting her."

Bless you. Keep spreading the good (conservative) word. Taxachusettes may one day turn around if enough folks wake up. I know, it'd be a miracle, but miracles happen!

[Republic If You Can Keep It]

Excellent post.

KKT is a master of wedge politics. Her specialties are race & class warfare. Her performance at the NAACP debate was despicable......she all but called Ehrlich a racist because he didn't agree with her on AA.

[Republic If You Can Keep It]

Excellent post.

KKT is a master of wedge politics. Her specialties are race & class warfare. Her performance at the NAACP debate was despicable......she all but called Ehrlich a racist because he didn't agree with her on AA.

[speekinout]

I know that for Ehrlich to win, he needs to "lose by less" in PG, Montgomery and Balto. City. But does anyone out there know by how much he needs to close the gap in those three places to win?

I volunteer for Ehrlich in Mont. Co. I have been told that if he wins the "traditional numbers" in PG and Balt, and gets 33% in Mont. he will win.
But I am not so sure. Balt. always seems to manage to have just enough of the dead vote to swing the state.

My opinion is that Ehrlich will win if there is a way to stop the corruption. Maybe poll watchers will make a difference, if the GOP has them in the important places.

[WOSG]

can someone break down the white/black male/female here, and in general for the Demo vs. GOP???

I mean, it says that the Dem candidate leads among blacks and women, and the GOP candidate among men and whites. So of the 4 groups, white/male, white/female, black/male, black/female, how does it break down?

And what about the age brackets? what I am trying to get at is: Which kinds of women are falling for the Dem candidate?

[WOSG]

"nobody will tell them what to do" ... but they are willing to tell others what to do, by denying them the right to own guns, to handle their property without draconian environmental regulations, taking away rights through high taxation, etc.

In other words, a non-hypocritical 'prochoice' person would be for small government and low taxes and liberty in general. BUT THESE PEOPLE ARE NOT. They just want to kill unborn humans at will.

Even ones who havea had kids and know the reality of birth, etc. ... WHY?????

[WOSG]

God Bless you and good luck in overcoming KKT and the Dems. I hope all the Republicans do well and hope you spread the word.

Former resident of Baltimore, now in Texas. Cheers!

[Republic If You Can Keep It]

The Md. electorate is 25% black. They usually vote 90%+ Dem.

[sweetliberty]

This is great news. Townsend deserves to be beat. She is without a doubt one of the most offensive individuals I have seen in any political debate. Her shrill, shrieking verbal barrage borders on public indecency and certainly an abusive assault on the ears of those who listen to her.