Posted on 11/06/2002 9:23:56 AM PST by DWPittelli
The Republicans took back the Senate this year, which is good enough for them in and of itself. The fact that they did this mid-term of the first term of a Republican Presidency is even better. But what’s best of all for the Republicans is the fact that they did this while defending 20 Senate seats this year, while the Democrats were only defending 14 seats (counting Wellstone’s recently emptied seat). Republican success refutes the myth of this being a “50/50 nation” – Republicans would have lost a couple seats in a nation evenly divided between the parties.
But 2002’s Senate races have further meaning. Not only did they mean that Republicans could win this year while running up-hill, defending more seats, the following incumbency figures pretty much guarantee that Republicans will control the Senate for the next 6 years:
How’s that? In 2 years (2004), the Democrats will be defending 19 seats while the Republicans are defending only 15. Now, it’s not impossible that the Dems will pick up seats – since the Republicans did so this year it is possible. But it’s very difficult: the Dems won’t have any mid-term advantage, and could only win if Bush’s presidency is seen as a failure. At any rate, if Bush wins reelection (or even loses closely) he will have a safely Republican Senate. Similarly, in 2006, the Dems will be defending 17 seats – 18 if you count turncoat Jim Jeffords, as you should. And the Republicans will only be defending 14 seats. Again, the Republicans are likely to hold their position or even gain a seat if the country remains anywhere near evenly divided.
The next real danger time for Republicans will be 2008, when Republicans will likely have 22 seats up, while the Dems will have only 12 seats to defend – an even bigger gap than we had yesterday. Most likely the Republicans will give up a few seats. But they will already be up by several seats (and won’t likely have to worry about Lautenberg!) and can afford to lose a few. Control of the Senate will follow the Presidential election (unless the popular vote is within 2%).
I like this scenario. Jeb Bush/Alan Keyes '08.
No one in the Congressional leadership is all that popular, well-known or good on TV. And no other governor is likely to come close to Jeb Bush on these measures either, and Florida is a pretty big state as well, helping Jeb Bush for either President or Vice-President.
Senate Terms Expiring in 2004
DEMOCRATS
1; Bayh, Evan; IN
2; Boxer, Barbara; CA
3; Breaux, John; LA
4; Daschle, Thomas; SD
5; Dodd, Christopher; CT
6; Dorgan, Byron; ND
7; Edwards, John; NC
8; Feingold, Russell; WI
9; Graham, Bob; FL
10; Hollings, Ernest; SC
11; Inouye, Daniel; HI
12; Leahy, Patrick; VT
13; Lincoln, Blanche; AR
14; Mikulski, Barbara; MD
15; Miller, Zell; GA
16; Murray, Patty; WA
17; Reid, Harry; NV
18; Schumer, Charles; NY
19; Wyden, Ron; OR
REPUBLICANS
1; Bennett, Robert; UT
2; Bond, Christopher; MO
3; Brownback, Sam; KS
4; Bunning, Jim; KY
5; Campbell, Ben Nighthorse; CO
6; Crapo, Mike; ID
7; Fitzgerald, Peter; IL
8; Grassley, Chuck; IA
9; Gregg, Judd; NH
10; McCain, John; AZ
11; Murkowski, Frank; AK
12; Nickles, Don; OK
13; Shelby, Richard; AL
14; Specter, Arlen; PA
15; Voinovich, George; OH
Senate Terms Expiring in 2006
DEMOCRATS
1; Akaka, Daniel; HI
2; Bingaman, Jeff; NM
3; Byrd, Robert; WV
4; Cantwell, Maria; WA
5; Carper, Thomas; DE
6; Clinton, Hillary; NY
7; Conrad, Kent ; ND
8; Corzine, Jon; NJ
9; Dayton, Mark ; MN
10; Feinstein, Dianne; CA
11; Kennedy, Edward; MA
12; Kohl, Herb; WI
13; Lieberman, Joseph; CT
14; Nelson, Bill ; FL
15; Nelson, Ben ; NE
16; Sarbanes, Paul ; MD
17; Stabenow, Debbie; MI
INDEPENDENTS
18; Jeffords, James; VT
REPUBLICANS
1; Allen, George; VA
2; Burns, Conrad; MT
3; Chafee, Lincoln; RI
4; DeWine, Mike ; OH
5; Ensign, John; NV
6; Frist, William; TN
7; Hatch, Orrin ; UT
8; Hutchison, Kay Bailey; TX
9; Kyl, Jon; AZ
10; Lott, Trent; MS
11; Lugar, Richard; IN
12; Santorum, Rick; PA
13; Snowe, Olympia; ME
14; Thomas, Craig; WY
I like Alan first of all because he is the best candidate, but also because, as a black man, he will give the Democrats fits.
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