Posted on 02/10/2003 4:21:44 PM PST by SJackson
US must use its sword, or else...
IF IT turns out the American President is bluffing about 'serious consequences', what will happen the next time the United States makes threats?
When a policy-maker says we should do something 'to maintain our credibility', it conjures up a tragic event - Vietnam. The experts all agree we foolishly bloodied ourselves and slaughtered others just to prove we wouldn't back down.
But with Iraq, the need to maintain resolve seems obvious. I cannot see how America can back down without damaging its, well, credibility.
Imagine the situation. A week from now, pressured by France, Germany and Russia, the US decides to give the United Nations inspectors more time. Though President George W. Bush has said repeatedly he would have 'zero tolerance' for Iraqi deception, he didn't really mean it.
What would happen the next time the US made threats? And what about America's allies? Washington has pushed countries like Kuwait, Qatar and Turkey to stick their necks out and support it in a very dangerous neighbourhood.
European states like Spain, Italy and Poland have dared to break with the Franco-German juggernaut, a move that could cost them dearly within the European Union. British Prime Minister Tony Blair has supported US action despite the fact that a majority of his Cabinet, his party, his Parliament and his country oppose a war. If the US administration were to cut and run now, what would America's reputation be with these leaders?
Think also about the effect it would have on countries such as France and Russia. Would they not decide that undermining American policy works?
And consider the effect on the adversary. Mr Saddam has already made clear what he believes. In his November interview with Egyptian weekly Al Usbou, he said: 'We have to buy some more time, and the American-British coalition will disintegrate because of internal reasons and because of the pressure of public opinion in the American and British street.'
UNDER CLOSE WATCH
AND what will other adversaries think of US threats? At this very moment, the US is trying to persuade another rogue regime not to acquire nuclear weapons. US East Asian expert Thomas Christensen said: 'There's no doubt that North Korea is watching what we do in Iraq very closely. It would be incredibly dangerous to back down now.'
In Vietnam, America could not win against an enemy consumed with nationalist passion and should have realised it more quickly. But even in Vietnam, there was a case for credibility - though it became greatly exaggerated.
In Mr Henry Kissinger's new book, Ending The Vietnam War, he points out that the US could not simply abandon South Vietnam after four presidents of both political parties had declared that its survival was crucial to American national security.
When America did leave, the international climate was affected. As Mr Kissinger notes, within six months of Saigon's fall, a Cuban expeditionary force appeared in Angola. Soviet and Cuban adventurism across the Third World picked up substantially. Three years later, the Shah of Iran was toppled. Then US diplomats were taken hostage in Teheran. Of course, local politics contributed, but Mr Kissinger wonders how much these developments were influenced by the fact that America's enemies were increasingly convinced 'that the wave of history was on their side'.
A senior Asian diplomat told me recently that before this month, he had never fully understood the saying: 'When you have drawn your sword, you must use it.' He added: 'But watching the current confrontation between the US and Iraq, it's clear. You've drawn your sword. Now you must use it.'
Those, btw, are the dominoes the liberals would tell you never fell, across Africa and Central America. Add the ongoing plight of Cambodia and Vietnam to the dominoes as well.
Part of the Franco-Prussian-Flemish plan is to leave the US troops in the ME on standby.
This won't happen. If they don't go into Iraq, they will come home or move closer to NK.
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