[TheConservator]

Comments?

[JennysCool]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/879568/posts

[Argus]

Only one comment. I hope you are 100% correct.

[Arkinsaw]

I've been saying it for days. Hope it comes true. I saw a report about what division was unloading up there and it was a very interesting number.

[pgyanke]

I don't think speculation like this does anything more than fuel our vanity while ensuring our enemies consider every possibility.

That said, I've had the same thought. I don't believe we've seen "shock and awe" yet...

[Dog Gone]

Well, if it's not happening, it certainly seems like an opportunity. Any force that entered between Baghdad and Tikrit would find a soft underbelly.

[anymouse]

A shrewd fighter doesn't telegraph his punches.

[Rammer]

I have found it interesting that the news coming out from western Iraq has been noticeably absent. If we took those airfields in the first few days, it would make sense to start using them to bring in a lot of men and equipment. Just speculation though.

[Numbers Guy]

I agree with your analysis. We've got a huge edge in maneuverability and it makes all the sense in the world to attack from a surprise direction--perhaps to cut off the RG from behind.

Lots of the stuff coming out as Pentaon "leaks" are likely disinformation for the purposes of fooling the Iraqis.

12 years ago the "left hook" was pretty obvious given the way the forces were arrayed, so I would suspect we've got something up our sleeves again.

The best part is that even if the Iraqis expect it, they can't really move forces to meet the attack without attracting a lot of attention from our air power.

[tiki]

shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

[Brett66]

Maybe our forces in the north will stay back from Baghdad. This will give the RG the impression that there is a northern escape route and then they will kill them as they try to escape. It might sucker the RG into attempting to flee Baghdad instead of going into it to fight.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Pretty much what I've been hinting at here and there. Our war plans would be...lacking...if they didn't involve something resembling deception on a mass scale. We never do hear about anything going on in H1, H2, and H3, and that Post 160 was bombed on opening night, almost 2 weeks ago. Similarly, we don't hear too much about the north that doesn't involve the Kurds.

With the recent news that some RG units based in the north have migrated south, they are just starting to get ripe for such a suckerpunch.

[kimoajax]

Hey, we now have six new airbases in the Middle East, there are a host of possiblities this presents which "encourages" certain nations to think twice.

[r9etb]

You're probably correct that something's going down. My personal opinion is that they're trying to draw units down from Tikrit, and we'd hit them there. Not only is that Saddam's home town, but one of the briefings (Pentagon or CENTCOMM) noted that that's also where they think the main WMD stores are.

Thing is, the Iraqis pretty much have no choice but to send troops down to Baghdad, even if they do suspect a strike at Tikrit.

If they don't shift troops, then we destroy the RG around Baghdad, besiege the city, and move on up to Tikrit and destroy the RG there.

And if they do shift troops -- hoping to delay us around Baghdad -- then our backdoor play works even better.

[pgyanke]

Well, a northern front was always part of the plan...

[Neets]

Comments?

Yes, one.

Vanity = Chat.

[irish guard]

There seem to be none, .......zero......zip....nada....reporters embedded with the II MEF and there has been no report out there about there whereabouts. IN addition, do you think all this 4 day pause, strung out supply lines and other stuff might have been Pentagon disinformation?

My guess is the top Iraqi generals have been without Saddam since March 27th, wehn a big bunker buster went off and they have no idea whether to $hit or wind their wrist watch. Rumors are circulating that families of the big shots are fleeing Baghdad.... That happened to the Nazis near the end. He's dead Jim.

[SamAdams76]

The coalition captured the H2 and H3 airfields in western Iraq on the first day of the war.

For all we know, the U.S. could have been landing transport planes up there ever since. Thus there may be even more materials and troops up there than you think. Good analysis.

[headsonpikes]

"This would amount to holding the Republican Guards by the nose, while kicking them in the ass."

I like that image.

[johnb838]

This would amount to holding the Republican Guards by the nose, while kicking them in the ass. (George S. Patton).

...Now I want you to remember that no bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his country. Men, all this stuff you've heard about America not wanting to fight - wanting to stay out of the war, is a lot of horse dung. Americans traditionally love to fight. All real Americans love the sting of battle. When you were kids, you all admired the champion marble shooter, the fastest runner, big league ball players, the toughest boxers. Americans love a winner and will not tolerate a loser. Americans play to win all the time. I wouldn't give a hoot in hell for a man who lost and laughed. That's why Americans have never lost and never will lose a war, because the very thought of losing is hateful to Americans. Now, an army is a team - it lives, eats, sleeps, fights as a team. This individuality stuff is a bunch of crap... Now, we have the finest food and equipment, the best spirit, and the best men in the world. You know, by god, I actually pity those poor bastards we're goin' up against. By god, I do. We're not just gonna shoot the bastards, we're going to cut out their living guts and use them to grease the treads of our tanks. We're going to murder those lousy Hun bastards by the bushel. Now, some of you boys, I know, are wondering whether or not you'll chicken out under fire. Don't worry about it. I can assure you that you will all do your duty. The Nazis are the enemy. Wade into them, spill their blood, shoot them in the belly. When you put your hand into a bunch of goo that a moment before was your best friend's face, you'll know what to do. Now there's another thing I want you to remember. I don't want to get any messages saying that we are holding our position. We're not holding anything. Let the Hun do that. We are advancing constantly and we're not interested in holding onto anything except the enemy. We're going to hold onto him by the nose and we're gonna kick him in the ass. We're going to kick the hell out of him all the time and we're gonna go through him like crap through a goose. Now, there's one thing that you men will be able to say when you get back home, and you may thank god for it. Thirty years from now when you're sitting around your fireside with your grandson on your knee, and he asks you: 'What did you do in the Great World War II?', you won't have to say: 'Well, I shoveled s--t in Louisiana.' All right, now you sons-of-bitches, you know how I feel and I will be proud to lead you wonderful guys into battle anytime, anywhere. That's all.

[Common Tator]

Since that time, there has been virtually no reporting out of that area

That is not true. Fox had reports that at least one of these fields was being used as a refueling station for aircraft. They are refueling several WartHogs per hour at these bases.

It seems more likely that we have the Republican Guard pinned down and are killing them at a rapid rate. Field commanders were quoted as saying the Republican guard has been reduced by 50 percent. News from this area has been delayed by 48 hours. So if yesterday they were saying 50 percent it is likely the actual number is 70 percent today. In another day or two it will be 90 percent. We have been probing the Republican Guard areas with on the ground re-con forces for several days. I suspect that the Republican guard is just a fraction of its original strength.

We are killing the Republican Guard with Air power using Air force planes, the Army Choppers and Artillery. What is being left for the Armor and Infantry forces to mop up will be very minor.

Once we have the Republican Guard taken down, we will send special forces to Baghdad to capture and/or kill the Iraqi leadership. Shortly after that all organized Resistance will cease.

It is like Berlin in the Last days of the Nazis. They went from trying to kill attackers to trying to escape in about a day. When the choice is resist and die or try to escape and perhaps live, the Iraqi commanders will go for the try to escape and perhaps live.

Some of Saddams underlings actually believed his strategy would work. When they come to the conclusion it is a total failure they will get the heck out of Baghdad as fast as they can.