SARS Mystery Deepens (Virus details)

Newsday ^ | April 1, 2003 | Laurie Garrett

[AppyPappy]

Who knows. Maybe it is one of those Asian insult things.

[Jim Noble]

>>Do you feel that SARS is a real emergency?<<

I think it is a new viral pneumonia with a mortality rate of 4% +/- 2%, and that it is rather surprisingly contagious in closed and semi-closed public places.

I think allowing exposed but not yet symptomatic persons into the US is absurd.

Calling it an emergency may be hyperbolic, but it is certainly unusual. Absent intervention, the number of infected persons could become quite large.

[Calpernia]

Good point. They would 'lose face' if some outside entity came in and solved the problem before they could. That makes sense!

[Justa]

"Similarly, few patients were smokers...."

Smokers' airways and lungs would be covered with tar which may protect against airborne contamination. Imo then, it's airborne.

[theFIRMbss]

>...following the path of other deadly flu's
>...behaving like other respiratory viruses

Yes. So? The whole point
of engineering a bug
would be to create

something which behaves
normally in most contexts,
but which has effects

that are subtly
different and deadly. We
seem to see that here.

I'm not saying I'm
convinced this is biotech
at work, but I think

this is exactly
what biotech would look like
if it were working...

[theFIRMbss]

>Absent intervention, the number of infected persons could become quite large.

Have you seen any
official "models" of SARS
yet? Has anyone

predicted how large
the US outbreak could be?
My rough, informal

extrapolation
was very disheartening.
At the CDC,

I'm sure computers
can forecast based on current
data. They should share...

[Jim Noble]

>>Have you seen any official "models" of SARS yet? <<

No.

[rwfromkansas]

I thought it was 104, not 100.4?

Yikes.

I will be watching this very closely and if I feel it getting more chesty....right now I do not have the symptomatic dry cough, but instead a "wet" cough due to sinus drainage, I will run to the doc and ask for that. I won't run to him yet though.

[abner]

I mentioned this the other day and got shot down. 'Cause lots of people in China smoke.

I rarely get colds. I think it is because I smoke like a chimney basicly preventing oxygen and bad things to live in my lungs.

[Dianna]

I rarely get colds. I think it is because I smoke like a chimney basicly preventing oxygen and bad things to live in my lungs.

Perhaps it is notable then that there are, as yet, no known cases in Kentucky. There are tons of smokers here.

Maybe someone with more knowledge can try to correlate the numbers of ill with the smoking population, or high pollution areas. Might be interesting.

[this_ol_patriot]

I smoke too. I get one cold a year in late winter and it's a slight sore throat, runny nose and a brief fever. I shake it off in a few days and that's it. Haven't had the flu in over 20 years and never get a shot. I'm working on 8 years worked with no sick time and have 3 days sick off (that flu) in 24 years at my present job.

I'm probably building up for a doozey.

[this_ol_patriot]

I had 3 days off 8 years ago for a work accident (fell down wet steps) but I don't count that because I wasn't allowed to come back until all the tests were done.

[aquila48]

Makes me wonder if the Chinese have been monkeying with some virus genetics.

My thoughts exactly. Could this be part of their biological weapon program?

[abner]

I got sick in November for the first time in like 8 years. I should be good to go for another 7.

[jerseygirl]

Possibly the very young and very old don't get out as much?

[pepsionice]

Typically...the flu has only reasonable affects on adults (18-50)...and usually threatens kids and old folks as a potential killer. If this story is true...and one must wonder about the truthfulness of the story...then China has a whole lot of explaining to do. Why develop the common cold into a killer virus? Obviously, they have some reason...and perhaps we need to add this type of behavior to the WMD group. I'd like to see the UN council challenge the Chinese to explain this whole thing.

[gavriloprincip]

swine flu 1976 it was supposed to kill millions, 20 million people were vaccinated, the US government assumed unprecendent liability. hmm.......

[bonesmccoy]

Jim said: I think it is a new viral pneumonia with a mortality rate of 4% +/- 2%, and that it is rather surprisingly contagious in closed and semi-closed public places.

Bones: Dammit Jim... it's not that contagious! RSV, Rotavirus, and Influenza have similar risks given mucous membrane exposure!

(LOL)


Jim: I think allowing exposed but not yet symptomatic persons into the US is absurd.

Bones: It is difficult to separate asymptomatic carriers from the totally unexposed. The only factor would be travel history in the last two weeks (presuming the etiologic agent actually does have an incubation period of 10 days). If this agent actually has an incubation period of 14-21 days (like variola or varicella), then closing borders will be totally inept. In this latter scenario, the disease virus would already circulating in our nation and has a significant number of asymptomatic carriers. If see individual cases popping up in the US ICU's in the next 14 days, then we will know.

If (and I suspect this is the case) we do NOT see US ICU cases in the next 14 days, closing travel to endemic areas (INCLUDING THE CANADIAN AND MEXICAN BORDER) may be helpful for the next 4-6 weeks. (What do you think Jim?)


Jim: Calling it an emergency may be hyperbolic, but it is certainly unusual. Absent intervention, the number of infected persons could become quite large.

Bones: I agree. Starfleet Command needs to stay aware of the situation and consider a planetary quarantine if the disease shows evidence of increased mortality rates. However, I doubt this will occur. The mortality rate does not seem to be much different than other severe viral infections. The reality is that the mortality rate is declining because doctors are simply admitting more cases and making the diagnosis with greater sensitivity (which decreases the acuity of the cases admitted to the hospital).

This thing seems more like overblown bureaucrats escalating public hysteria to support more line-items in the centrally controlled healthcare budgets. Really now... how many cases of SARS in the US now?

[bonesmccoy]

just want to make sure it was clear that my "dammit Jim" was a reference to ST: TOS and NOT an expression of exasperation.

[Dr. Eckleburg]

I haven't seen it posted anywhere, though I may have missed it. Is there any data out on the racial profiles of the infected?