Economist predicts world recession

CNNMoney ^ | April 2, 2003: 1:11 PM EST

[arete]

Morgan Stanley economist cites SARS, war uncertainties as the main causes for pending recession.

NEW YORK (CNN) - One of Wall Street's leading economists is predicting a global recession this year, prompted in large part by fears surrounding Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), the "mystery illness" with cold-like symptoms that is blamed for 78 deaths in 15 countries, CNNfn has learned.

[arete]

Roach told CNNfn that SARS is "just another nail on the coffin for the world economy." And slower global growth, he said, will impact U.S. exports.

I understand that if you can hold your breath for a really really really long time, you won't get SARS

Richard W.

[arete]

FYI

Comments and opinions welcome.

Richard W.

[GovernmentShrinker]

I think it's awfully early to be predicting the global economic effects of SARS. The disease is a couple of weeks old (outside of its Guangdong point of origin, where it's 2-3 months old), and they've pretty well established that the virus is a variant of the common cold virus, that only about 1 in 30 people who come down with visible symptoms die from it (and who knows how many others get infected but fight it off before experiencing serious enough symptoms to get labelled as having SARS, or even to go to the doctor), and people who survive it have developed effective antibodies to it. Heck, maybe it'll thin the herd, leaving the strongest healthiest to carry on, thus drastically reducing global healthcare costs, and fueling a huge economic boom. And maybe a reliable vaccine will be developed from the antibodies of the surivors, and the whole epidemic will be over in a few weeks, after the vaccine becomes mandatory for international travel.

[imawit]

Richard,

Am I in la la la land or are more financial people in the know starting to wonder if recession is our next economic reality, huh ?

[Chancellor Palpatine]

Steven Roach and the rest of the Demo doomcriers can kiss my spotty fat a**. No more manipulation for political gain. Its been happening since 1Q of 2000, it is affecting the lives of way too many people.

[Willie Green]

I understand that if you can hold your breath for a really really really long time, you won't get SARS

The NRST will cure both SARS and athlete's foot.
A flying monkey told me so.

[Steven W.]

I guess this is the kind of fearmongering we can continue to expect as gold plunges another $6 a day.

[PBRSTREETGANG]

One of Wall Street's leading economists is predicting a global recession this year, prompted in large part by fears surrounding Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS),

Apparently he was tired of people using the word "leading" when they were referring to him.

[Steven W.]

lalaland = goldbug land = ~ similar levels of inanity

[Proud_texan]

Thanks, fell out of my chair laughing.

If not SARS perhaps toenail fungus?

[Rodney King]

FYI, although Roach has officially just started forcasting recession now, he has been super-negative for the last three years. This isn't really a change of opinion.

[discostu]

Now SARS is gonna cause a global recession. Everytime anything happens these clowns all say it's going to cause a global recession. I'm sure the kleenix I just used is going to cause a global recession. Editors should start slapping their writers that predict global recessions, it's a dodge article written to fill in word count mostly done by global search and replaces.

[Redcloak]

Let's see now... Over a BILLION people in China, of which under 2000 have caught the disease and less than 50 have died. And this is the stuff of "world recessions"?!?

Sounds like nothing more than a goldbug chirping.

[stylin19a]

Steven Roach has been issuing global recession warnings for years.
-global recession based on high oil prices ?
-global recession base on ANY war with Iraq? (long war or short war)

ad nauseum...one of these days, he'll be right, then tout himself as a guru.

[Beck_isright]

Let me check. Last time I watched CNBSC, the US was in recession, Japan always has been, most of Europe, parts of Southeast Asia, and who knows about Russia. His "prediction" of a worldwide recession is tantamount to predicting heavy rain as the eye of a hurrican passes over. What a moron.

V

[Wright is right!]

Actually, the world's economy has already been in a mild recession for a couple of years now. Where's this guy been hiding out?

Michael

[Rodney King]

To be fair, I do think that the high energy prices are a major, mahor risk to the economy.

[Luna]

Ever stop to think that the world has always been full of uncertainty, disease, war, etc., yet somehow, we've managed to survive into the 21st century?

I'm hoping the ecomony gets better. I think it will. But maybe I'm a naive optimist in this instance (which is unusual for my pessimistic nature).

[arete]

The NRST will cure both SARS and athlete's foot.

How about root rot or SBNC's ? :-)

Richard W.

[yankeedame]

"...are more financial people in the know starting to wonder if recession is our next economic reality...

IMHO, I think it's more a case of "The wish is father to the thought". Anything, anything to take down the U.S., and even more so President Bush; especially now with the Iraqi forces melting before us like snow in the hot sun.