Ms. lili, you quiet now! I put you on slow boat to China!
Posted on 04/15/2003 6:55:12 AM PDT by per loin
| Time | Cases | Increase | Disposition | Dead as % of prior time | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Day | Date | New | Week | Total | One Day | Week | Got well | Dead | Total Gone | Now In Hospitals | Total Hosp Days | Week | 2 Week | 3 Week | ||||||||||||
| Day | Total | % | Day | Total | % | Day | Total | % | Day | Total | % | |||||||||||||||
| Wed | 03/12 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 100.0% | 10 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Thu | 03/13 | 14 | 24 | 140.0% | 14 | 24 | 100.0% | 34 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Fri | 03/14 | 5 | 29 | 20.8% | 5 | 29 | 100.0% | 63 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Sat | 03/15 | 8 | 37 | 27.6% | 8 | 37 | 100.0% | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Sun | 03/16 | 5 | 42 | 13.5% | 5 | 42 | 100.0% | 142 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Mon | 03/17 | 53 | 95 | 126.2% | 53 | 95 | 100.0% | 237 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Tue | 03/18 | 28 | 123 | 123 | 29.5% | 28 | 123 | 100.0% | 360 | |||||||||||||||||
| Wed | 03/19 | 27 | 140 | 150 | 22.0% | 1400.0% | 5 | 5 | 3.3% | 5 | 5 | 3.3% | 10 | 10 | 6.7% | 17 | 140 | 93.3% | 500 | 50.0% | ||||||
| Thu | 03/20 | 23 | 149 | 173 | 15.3% | 620.8% | 0 | 5 | 2.9% | 1 | 6 | 3.5% | 1 | 11 | 6.4% | 22 | 162 | 93.6% | 662 | 25.0% | ||||||
| Fri | 03/21 | 30 | 174 | 203 | 17.3% | 600.0% | 2 | 7 | 3.4% | 0 | 6 | 3.0% | 2 | 13 | 6.4% | 28 | 190 | 93.6% | 852 | 20.7% | ||||||
| Sat | 03/22 | 19 | 185 | 222 | 9.4% | 500.0% | 0 | 7 | 3.2% | 2 | 8 | 3.6% | 2 | 15 | 6.8% | 17 | 207 | 93.2% | 1,059 | 21.6% | ||||||
| Sun | 03/23 | 25 | 205 | 247 | 11.3% | 488.1% | 0 | 7 | 2.8% | 2 | 10 | 4.0% | 2 | 17 | 6.9% | 23 | 230 | 93.1% | 1,289 | 23.8% | ||||||
| Mon | 03/24 | 13 | 165 | 260 | 5.3% | 173.7% | 5 | 12 | 4.6% | 0 | 10 | 3.8% | 5 | 22 | 8.5% | 8 | 238 | 91.5% | 1,527 | 10.5% | ||||||
| Tue | 03/25 | 26 | 163 | 286 | 10.0% | 132.5% | 2 | 14 | 4.9% | 0 | 10 | 3.5% | 2 | 24 | 8.4% | 24 | 262 | 91.6% | 1,789 | 8.1% | ||||||
| Wed | 03/26 | 30 | 166 | 316 | 10.5% | 110.7% | 2 | 16 | 5.1% | 0 | 10 | 3.2% | 2 | 26 | 8.2% | 28 | 290 | 91.8% | 2,079 | 6.7% | 100.0% | |||||
| Thu | 03/27 | 51 | 194 | 367 | 16.1% | 112.1% | 3 | 19 | 5.2% | 0 | 10 | 2.7% | 3 | 29 | 7.9% | 48 | 338 | 92.1% | 2,417 | 5.8% | 41.7% | |||||
| Fri | 03/28 | 58 | 222 | 425 | 15.8% | 109.4% | 6 | 25 | 5.9% | 1 | 11 | 2.6% | 7 | 36 | 8.5% | 51 | 389 | 91.5% | 2,806 | 5.4% | 37.9% | |||||
| Sat | 03/29 | 45 | 248 | 470 | 10.6% | 111.7% | 18 | 43 | 9.1% | 1 | 12 | 2.6% | 19 | 55 | 11.7% | 26 | 415 | 88.3% | 3,221 | 5.4% | 32.4% | |||||
| Sun | 03/30 | 60 | 283 | 530 | 12.8% | 114.6% | 21 | 64 | 12.1% | 1 | 13 | 2.5% | 22 | 77 | 14.5% | 38 | 453 | 85.5% | 3,674 | 5.3% | 31.0% | |||||
| Mon | 03/31 | 80 | 350 | 610 | 15.1% | 134.6% | 15 | 79 | 13.0% | 2 | 15 | 2.5% | 17 | 94 | 15.4% | 63 | 516 | 84.6% | 4,190 | 5.8% | 15.8% | |||||
| Tue | 04/1 | 75 | 399 | 685 | 12.3% | 139.5% | 5 | 84 | 12.3% | 1 | 16 | 2.3% | 6 | 100 | 14.6% | 69 | 585 | 85.4% | 4,775 | 5.6% | 13.0% | |||||
| Wed | 04/2 | 23 | 392 | 708 | 3.4% | 124.1% | 5 | 89 | 12.6% | 0 | 16 | 2.3% | 5 | 105 | 14.8% | 18 | 603 | 85.2% | 5,378 | 5.1% | 10.7% | 160.0% | ||||
| Thu | 04/3 | 26 | 367 | 734 | 3.7% | 100.0% | 9 | 98 | 13.4% | 1 | 17 | 2.3% | 10 | 115 | 15.7% | 16 | 619 | 84.3% | 5,997 | 4.6% | 9.8% | 70.8% | ||||
| Fri | 04/4 | 27 | 336 | 761 | 3.7% | 79.1% | 1 | 99 | 13.0% | 0 | 17 | 2.2% | 1 | 116 | 15.2% | 26 | 645 | 84.8% | 6,642 | 4.0% | 8.4% | 58.6% | ||||
| Sat | 04/5 | 39 | 330 | 800 | 5.1% | 70.2% | 8 | 107 | 13.4% | 3 | 20 | 2.5% | 11 | 127 | 15.9% | 28 | 673 | 84.1% | 7,315 | 4.3% | 9.0% | 54.1% | ||||
| Sun | 04/6 | 42 | 312 | 842 | 5.3% | 58.9% | 9 | 116 | 13.8% | 2 | 22 | 2.6% | 11 | 138 | 16.4% | 31 | 704 | 83.6% | 8,019 | 4.2% | 8.9% | 52.4% | ||||
| Mon | 04/7 | 41 | 273 | 883 | 4.9% | 44.8% | 11 | 127 | 14.4% | 1 | 23 | 2.6% | 12 | 150 | 17.0% | 29 | 733 | 83.0% | 8,752 | 3.8% | 8.8% | 24.2% | ||||
| Tue | 04/8 | 45 | 243 | 928 | 5.1% | 35.5% | 11 | 138 | 14.9% | 2 | 25 | 2.7% | 13 | 163 | 17.6% | 32 | 765 | 82.4% | 9,517 | 3.6% | 8.7% | 20.3% | ||||
| Wed | 04/9 | 42 | 262 | 970 | 4.5% | 37.0% | 4 | 142 | 14.6% | 2 | 27 | 2.8% | 6 | 169 | 17.4% | 36 | 801 | 82.6% | 10,318 | 3.8% | 8.5% | 18.0% | ||||
| Thu | 04/10 | 28 | 264 | 998 | 2.9% | 36.0% | 12 | 154 | 15.4% | 3 | 30 | 3.0% | 15 | 184 | 18.4% | 13 | 814 | 81.6% | 11,132 | 4.1% | 8.2% | 17.3% | ||||
| Fri | 04/11 | 61 | 298 | 1,059 | 6.1% | 39.2% | 15 | 169 | 16.0% | 2 | 32 | 3.0% | 17 | 201 | 19.0% | 44 | 858 | 81.0% | 11,990 | 4.2% | 7.5% | 15.8% | ||||
| Sat | 04/12 | 49 | 308 | 1,108 | 4.6% | 38.5% | 46 | 215 | 19.4% | 3 | 35 | 3.2% | 49 | 250 | 22.6% | 0 | 858 | 77.4% | 12,848 | 4.4% | 7.4% | 15.8% | ||||
| Sun | 04/13 | 42 | 308 | 1,150 | 3.8% | 36.6% | 8 | 223 | 19.4% | 5 | 40 | 3.5% | 13 | 263 | 22.9% | 29 | 887 | 77.1% | 13,735 | 4.8% | 7.5% | 16.2% | ||||
| Mon | 04/14 | 40 | 307 | 1,190 | 3.5% | 34.8% | 6 | 229 | 19.2% | 7 | 47 | 3.9% | 13 | 276 | 23.2% | 27 | 914 | 76.8% | 14,649 | 5.3% | 7.7% | 18.1% | ||||
| Tue | 04/15 | 42 | 304 | 1,232 | 3.5% | 32.8% | 14 | 243 | 19.7% | 9 | 56 | 4.5% | 23 | 299 | 24.3% | 19 | 933 | 75.7% | 15,582 | 6.0% | 8.2% | 19.6% | ||||
| Averages | 35 | 258 | 17.7% | 197.0% | 9 | 11.0% | 2 | 3.0% | 11 | 14.0% | 27 | 88.8% | 9.3% | 18.6% | 40.1% | |||||||||||
| Day | Total | % | Day | Total | % | Day | Total | % | Day | Total | % | |||||||||||||||
| Day | Date | New | Week | Total | One Day | Week | Got well | Dead | Total Gone | Now In Hospitals | Total Hosp Days | Week | 2 Week | 3 Week | ||||||||||||
| Time | Cases | Increase | Disposition | Dead as % of prior time | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Questions and Answers on Executive Order and Interim Final Rule
Q.1. What is CDC’s quarantine authority?
A.1. Title 42 United States Code Section 264 (Section 361 of the Public Health Service Act) gives the Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) responsibility for preventing the introduction, transmission, and spread of communicable diseases from foreign countries into the United States and within the United States and its territories/possessions. This statute is implemented through regulations found at 42 CFR Parts 70 and 71. Under its delegated authority, the CDC is empowered to detain, medically examine, or conditionally release individuals suspected of carrying a communicable disease.
Q.2. Why was an Executive Order necessary?
A.2. Under the procedures required under the PHS Act, the list of diseases for which quarantine is authorized must first be specified in an Executive Order of the President, on recommendation of the HHS Secretary. By amending the list to include SARS, HHS is simply taking the pragmatic step of readying all options as we continue to tackle this disease.
Q.3. What does the Executive Order accomplish?
A.3. In the event a passenger infected with SARS were to arrive in the United States on board an international flight, the Executive Order provides HHS with clear legal authority to detain or isolate the non-compliant passenger and prevent the passenger from infecting others. This authority would only be used if someone posed a threat to public health and refused to cooperate with a voluntary request.
Q.4. Were any other diseases added to the list?
A.4. No, the Executive Order only added SARS to the list of communicable diseases for which isolation and/or quarantine is authorized. The other diseases: Cholera; Diphtheria; infectious Tuberculosis; Plague; Smallpox; Yellow fever; and Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers, have appeared on the list since 1983.
Q.5. Why did CDC issue a new rule?
A.5. Amending the quarantine regulations to incorporate the Executive Order by reference eliminates the unnecessary administrative delay in the future of publishing another regulation if the list needs to be changed again. These revisions also serve the dual capacity of giving HHS the flexibility to better protect the public against the increased threat of a new microbe deliberately used in a bioterrorism event.
Q.6. Why was this new rule issued without notice and comment?
A.6. This rule was issued on an interim final basis with no prior notice and comment and no delay in effective date. As of April 12, 2003, the WHO has reported 2960 cases and 119 deaths of severe pneumonia-like illness of unknown origin in a growing number of countries. Several countries, including Canada, Hong Kong SAR, and Singapore have instituted maximum health measures, including quarantine, to prevent the further spread of the disease. The CDC is currently investigating 188 suspected cases of the disease in the United States. Accordingly, appropriate public health control measures including quarantine need to be available immediately to protect against this threat.
Q.7. Have other countries taken similar steps?
A.7. Several countries, including Canada, Hong Kong SAR, and Singapore have instituted maximum health measures, including quarantine, to prevent the further spread of the disease. Ontario, Canada has taken the additional step of making SARS a reportable, virulent, communicable disease under Ontario’s Health Protection and Promotion Act. This allows Canadian public health officers to issue orders to stop infected people from engaging in activities that transmit SARS.
Q.8. Have these new quarantine powers been used yet? A.8. CDC has not compelled the isolation or quarantine of anyone for SARS. CDC routinely uses the authority of the PHS Act to monitor passengers arriving into the United States for communicable diseases.
Q.9. When was this quarantine power last used?
A.9. The last litigated case involving the involuntary quarantine of a passenger arriving into the United States occurred in 1963 and involved a suspect case of smallpox. On the other hand, CDC routinely temporarily detains incoming planes and interviews passengers for health reasons. For example, CDC temporarily detained an incoming plane and interviewed passengers in Seattle in December 2001 to verify that a report of smallpox aboard the flight was in fact a hoax.
Q.10. When does CDC intend to use these quarantine powers?
A.10. In general, HHS defers to the state and local health authorities in their primary use of their own separate quarantine powers. Based upon long experience and collaborative working relationships with our state and local partners, CDC would continue to anticipate the need to use this federal authority to actually quarantine a person only in rare situations, like events at ports of entry or in similar time-sensitive settings.
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/sars/quarantineqa.htm
April 15 2003 at 06:15AM
IOL (South Africa)
Hong Kong - This city-state has registered its highest single-day death toll from the killer Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) virus as analysts warned that the crisis could tip Asia's worst-hit regions into recession.
Seven more people in Hong Kong were confirmed dead from SARS on Monday, bringing the total deaths to 48.
Another 40 were admitted to hospital, taking the number of cases to 1 191.
With four more fatalities reported in China, the global death toll from SARS stood at 143, with more than 3 400 confirmed or suspected cases.
Scientists are hoping to find a vaccine against the disease Singapore took a step back to normality when 200 000 pupils returned to classes on Monday.
Singapore and Hong Kong, two of the worst-affected areas, were identified by analysts as being vulnerable to recession.
"Both depend on tourism and business travellers," said economist David Cohen.
China's death toll stood at 64, with infections at 1 418 as of April 13. Canada, which reported three deaths on Saturday, had a total of 13 fatalities.
Another case in Vietnam reported on Saturday brought its death toll to five, with two fatalities recorded in Thailand and one in Malaysia.
The mayor of Beijing admitted the first case emerged six weeks ago. The revelation appeared to confirm claims that authorities were alerted to the existence of SARS in Beijing much earlier than they have acknowledged.
On Friday, the World Health Organisation added Beijing to its list of areas affected by SARS following indications that "chains of local transmission are occurring".
This put the city of 13-million on a list alongside Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Hanoi and Toronto.
In a belated attempt to allow the outside world to understand conditions in the country where SARS probably originated, China has allowed in more WHO inspection teams.
In Manila, President Gloria Arroyo said Singapore's swift and stringent measures introduced at the start of the outbreak could serve as a model.
On Sunday, Arroyo said the Philippine consulate in Hong Kong hired doctors to check any Filipino domestic workers returning home for SARS.
To stop SARS at its gates, the Saudi health ministry said it would bar the entry of visitors from China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and Vietnam.
Meanwhile scientists are hoping to find a vaccine against the disease, a Canadian doctor said on Monday.
Dr Marco Marra, scientific director of the Michael Smith centre in Vancouver, said researchers had worked out the genome sequence of the virus thought to be causing the illness.
"That will help us to pin down a vaccine in a very short time, a few weeks."
The Ministry of Health has warned that the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) currently devastating parts of Asia has reached the African continent.
Anne Mugisa writes that the director general of Health Services, Prof. Francis Omaswa, has asked health authorities to assist in monitoring the epidemic at Entebbe airport.
The ministry has also established a hotline, 077-507799, where emergencies should be reported.
Omaswa said travellers from countries where the disease has been reported should report any suspicious symptoms on arrival at the airport.
In a statement, Omaswa said the disease has been reported in South Africa.
Other countries affected are China, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore and Japan. A few isolated cases have also been reported in Canada and the USA.
Omaswa said the disease is possibly transmitted through the air and is characterised by an acute sore throat and cough associated with difficulty in breathing, muscular pain and in the later stages, confusion and skin rash.
He also reminded district directors of health services to implement the technical guidelines for control of SARS which he said were circulated to them last month.
"The Ministry of Health would like to assure the public that appropriate action is being taken to monitor the disease and contain it, should it be imported into the country," the statement added.
http://allafrica.com/stories/200304150523.html
You'd think. Sigh, I have my doubts.
CDC recommends N95 masks at minimum. If the drugstore doesn't have them, N95 masks are available in hardware stores paint supply aisles (the charcoal layer filters out chemical fumes too)
excerpted from: Patricia A. Doyle, PhD
http://www.clickitnews.com/emergingdiseases/index.shtml
*snip* If I am correct, and SARS is caused by a manmade pathogen, we can expect to see it mutate extremely rapidly. I also believe that the Chinese were actually "playing" with the coronavirus/paramyxovirus and whatever else is in the genetic makeup of the virus. I believe that they were in the initial stage of a "chimeravirus" program. I think that this was the reason they chose a coronavirus. Large genome makes research easier. I think they also chose the paramyxoviruses for the purpose of learning how to combine and maintain infectivity and severity of symptoms and possibly to enable the virus to jump species barrier.
We know that coronaviruses RARELY jump species barrier.(is this true?) We identified animal coronaviruses only. i.e. viruses similar to mouse, bovine and avian coronavirus. There again, only similar and not the actual mouse, bovine and avian viruses. No human. The paramyxoviruses chosen were HUMAN and targeted at causing pneumonia. I would not be surprised if the intent was to develop a chimera and then infect prisoners with it and monitor spread and morbidity among the prisoners. Then, bury them, end of project thus retiring the pathogen that causes SARS with no one the wiser. What is it they say about the best laid plans of man?
Probably a lab worker took ill, or a nonprisoner and the rest, as they say, is history. A sick lab worker goes to hospital not knowing it is SARS and infects hospital staff, then doctor goes to Hong Kong takes ill, etc etc.
So, my best guess is that, because we have a chimeravirus, lab developed, and probably for the purpose of learning, the virus could be extremely unstable. I think that the choice of a coronavirus, shows that "they" were using it for a learning experience and not a bioweapon. The bioweapon would come later, with different virus family recombination, and after sufficient testing. Of course, I can not be sure, and I am not sure. I can only look at the virus chosen etc etc. Coronaviruses have the largest genome of all viruses and would be easier to use to learn about the chimera process.
Over the past few weeks, we look at the cases of SARS around the world and begin to notice that it is not as deadly as it was in Guangdong Province, Hong Kong etc. It now is less severe then Toronto.
The CDC will tell us that it is the quality US health care that is keeping morbidity down. Also, the well nourished population in the US, etc, etc. I don't think that CDC will theorize on an experimental chimeravirus developed and then escaping a Chinese lab. That would be very much politically incorrect. Bioweapons are quite unstable. Some have been programmed to make the agent a bit more stable. The fact of the matter is, that, especially in the case of chimeraviruses, we do not know how they will act in the environment. We know that the Russians developed Smallpox combined with Ebola, ergo Ebolapox, also VEEpox. We don't know how it would act in the environment. All we have is theory on paper. No previous human experience. I think that since SARS agent was not even intended for a bioweapon, its programming is such that it will be extremely unstable. My thought is that it will mutate harmless and probably, the most severe symptoms will ultimately be that of a cold.
If the CDC were to admit that the virus is "unraveling" and becoming less infective and/or less severe, than we have scientists coming foward with a theory that SARS could be a manmade pathogen.
What really worries me, is the fact that SARS appears to be a chimeravirus. The worry is that China may now have a Chimeravirus Program, in similar fashion to that of the former Soviet Union. It is also possible that some of the Soviet scientists had joined the Chinese bioweapons team. They obviously have the expertise to create Ebolapox, VEEpox etc and teaching this chimera method to the Chinese could be extremely dangerous for the world. Also of worry is the fact that NO ONE (in the who's who of science) is bringing up the possibility that the SARS agent is manmade. It seems like there is a gag order in progress when it comes to the origin of SARS. The ostrich syndrome will only allow for China to move foward with chimeravirus technology.
I do stress that the above is theory, my theory. I must also say that as we move foward through the SARS outbreak we start to find more puzzle pieces, that indicate SARS is a manmade virus. Could the fact that SARS is unstable and mutating either, to cold symptoms, or, to harmless be one more "dot" to connect with regard to the origin of the SARS outbreak?
I am taking everything into consideration, from the size of the genome, (ease of manipulating viral material) to the viruses that are recombinent, (coronavirus, paramyxovirus yet, re coronaviruses not matching any known to human and animal with some genetic material still unidentified) to adding paramyxoviruses for infectivity, jumping species barrier and severity of symptoms, to the present, the unstableness of the virus and I am trying to connecting all dots. Where does a bacteria fit the puzzle? There is evidence that an aerosolized form of Chlamydia (probably pneumonae) had infected some of the Chinese cases.
We may have sequenced the genome of the agent that causes SARS, but we have not completed identification of all genetic material within the virus genome, or found why it jumped species barrier, why it recombined with animal coronaviruses and human paramyxoviruses, why it does not act like ANY human or animal virus known to man. In short, we have not even found the origin of the virus. The mystery remains.
Again, I think that we shall see an unstable virus that will either mutate virulent or muate harmless with lower infectivity rate, lower mortality rate. It may be evidenced with symptoms no more than the common cold. I am hoping that it will mutate harmless, and it does appear that will be the case. My best guess is the reason we are starting to see less cases with lower mortality/morbidity rate, is because the virus is manmade.
Thank you Patricia Doyle
Don't know if that is right. Sems like more cases.
Ms. lili, you quiet now! I put you on slow boat to China!
I agree and I was wondering why she was stating that.
That would never be admitted by the Chinese, but is certainly an interesting hypothesis (especially since sequencing the genome did not show where SARS came from). We will probably never know if she is right. Very few nations would even consider publicly accusing China of accidentally releasing SARS.
Sadly, Dr. Doyle was off base with her comments about SARS appearing to be weakening. The U.S. CDC has explicitly stated that the disease does not seem to be weakening. Since this remains a very real possibility, we can still hope that it will in the future. (Remember, the Spanish Flu in 1918 mutated and got worse before it mysteriously went away.)
Likewise, her observations on SARS in the U.S. missed the fact that the U.S. is using the world's most liberal definition of SARS, and most of our "cases" are not SARS at all. The U.S. CDC has stated that the number of "suspected" cases is expected to drop significantly by the end of this week when they change the definition. They have also stated that an effective way to test for SARS would lower the number of cases in the U.S. significantly.
So, if we assume it is a man made pathogen, where does that put us as far as a cure or vaccination goes? I know next to nothing about microbiology so bear with me. (I find it quite fascinating though--it's a shame we pick our college majors at the age most of us do!)
I am inclined to think a man made pathogen if picked apart would show some sort of logic, planning and organization that would not be found in nature. Things in nature are always assymetrical, chaotic...hence, the beauty of nature.
So, would something man made not be easier to dissect and "cure" rather than something natural?
I'm grasping for hope here...
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