Regards, Ivan
Posted on 4/18/2003, 12:38:08 AM by MadIvan
THEY were only a few documents lying in the ransacked offices of a Baghdad mansion, but they exploded this week with the force of a cruise missile. The papers, it was reported, are proof of intelligence links between Moscow and Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.
The most serious allegations concern certificates, bearing the Russian twin-headed eagle, showing that five Iraqis had graduated in spy training from a Moscow organisation called the Special Training Centre.
Checks this week show there is no private company by that name - increasing speculation that Iraqi agents attended an official Russian spy school.
More documents from the same Baghdad villa - a secret service headquarters - claim Russia passed Iraq a list of freelance hitmen who could be hired for assassinations.
Other papers found in the rubble of Iraq’s capital are claimed to detail how Russia passed Iraq details of phone calls between Tony Blair and Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi.
Moscow has refused to confirm their authenticity, but many believe the documents show clearly how close Moscow’s ties were with the regime of Saddam Hussein.
A convoy of Russian diplomats was bombed by the US last month as it left Baghdad, leaving one man wounded. Moscow newspapers have reported that the convoy was in fact a mission sent to Iraq to retrieve sensitive documents before they could fall into US hands.
More is likely to come. The hunt is on for the so-called black files of Saddam Hussein - details of covert payments to various nations to secure pro-Iraq votes at the UN. Many governments are nervous.
True or not, the allegations have thrown Russia on to the backfoot as it prepares to square up to the United States for a new confrontation - over the future of Iraqi oil.
A deadline is looming on 3 June, when the United Nations must vote to prolong the oil for food programme - the only legal way for Iraq to sell oil.
The US wants to use the vote to scrap the whole sanctions regime. But it needs the support of all the permanent members of the Security Council - including China, France and Russia.
The Russian foreign minister, Igor Ivanov, an outspoken opponent of the war, said yesterday that lifting sanctions could not be automatic, until it was clear that Iraq was free of weapons of mass destruction. It seemed a clear signal that the horse-trading over post-war Iraq - and its oil - had begun.
Russia, China and France are still smarting from their failure to prevent war. Now they are fixed on a huge prize - the reserves of the second richest oil state on earth. They may hope to drive a hard bargain with the Americans in return for turning the oil tap back on.
For all the talk of Iraq’s oil fields being old, decayed and dilapidated, the truth is that they are a potential gold mine.
Iraq’s oil reserves are thought to run to more than 100 billion barrels, and production costs are low. "The point is, its easy to get the stuff out," said one Moscow oil executive. "You just hammer a pole in the ground and out it comes."
Iraq has large unexplored fields, and 12 years of sanctions means that oil companies have not investigated with the latest technology, including 3D imaging, which can find oil in areas previously considered barren.
"There’s a lot that hasn’t been done there which has been done all over the world recently," said one oil engineer. "That’s a huge business."
In the 1990s, Russia thought it had a head-start. Moscow has been heavily involved in Iraq for decades - most of Saddam’s military hardware was given by the Soviets in the 1980s.
In 1997, with American oil companies banned by Washington from investing in Iraq, Moscow’s Lukoil signed a contract to develop the vast West Kurna field.
UN sanctions meant Lukoil could not open the field, but the company was happy to bide its time.
Saddam Hussein cancelled the Lukoil contract last November, in fury after Russia approved UN resolution 1441. But as Russia hardened its stance against the war, that decision was being reconsidered, and three other small Russian oil companies won contracts. With a new Iraqi government, all could end in years of litigation.
Writing in the Moscow Times this week, defence analyst Pavel Felgenhauer said he had been told that Russian oil company executives have allied themselves with secret service officials in trying to lobby the Kremlin over Iraq contracts.
While most oil executives worry about contacts, Russia’s generals worry about US expansionism.
The war on terror has seen the US make big inroads into countries once considered Russia’s backyard.
Last year, Washington opened a chain of bases across the oil-rich states of central Asia, once former Soviet republics loyal to Moscow.
Now US companies are bidding for oil contracts and the right to build pipelines to get oil to distant ports.
Whatever the role of the UN in a future Iraq, it is clear that the US is there to stay, and Russia views it as one more chess piece lost.
Whether this war was about oil is still being debated, but a sign of how important it is can be found in Baghdad.
While other official buildings are in ruins, the oil ministry is untouched. It was secured by US marines before anyone could get in to rifle the files.
Russia has a second fear: its $8 billion dollar debt owed by Iraq. This debt stretches back many years. Much of it was to pay for the tanks and planes destroyed by US armies.
Moscow does not want to forgive the debt, arguing Western banks are unwilling to forgive Russia debt it inherited from the days of the Soviet Union.
All of Russia’s worries - debt, oil and fears of American expansionism - will be fed into the diplomatic machine now gearing up for what is likely to be Round Two for Russia and France.
Both nations want to get even with the US for ignoring the UN and opting for war against Iraq. More practically, they want to make sure their own oil companies get a piece of the Iraqi cake.
And the one thing Russia does not need, as it squares up to the United States, is more embarrassing revelations.
Regards, Ivan
The world needs these embarrassing revelations, as they will show all that the USA was justified. God Bless George Bush.
Regards, Ivan
So it is unsurprising. It is also, however, disappointing.
Regards, Ivan
Russian President Vladimir Putin has been critical of the assessments given him by both the Foreign Ministry and the Defense Ministry. He was quoted as saying that Russian intelligence was wrong about the combat capability of Saddam Hussein's military and the determination of the United States.
The Russian Defense Ministry assessed that Saddam's Republican Guards would wage a vigorous defense of Baghdad and the surrounding region. One Russian intelligence report said the United States would sustain up to 5,000 casualties in the battle for Baghdad.
The Foreign Ministry predicted heavy diplomatic pressure on the United States from NATO allies to stop the war before the assault on Baghdad. One assessment said British Prime Minister Tony Blair would be forced to withdraw his forces amid rising casualties.
Putin, a former KGB official, was skeptical of the predictions that the United States would be blocked at the gates of Baghdad, officials said. As a result, he sent Saddam a message urging him to leave Baghdad in exchange for safe haven for him and his family.
On Feb. 22, Putin dispatched former Russian Prime Minister Yevgeni Primakov, a fluent Arabic speaker, to meet Saddam in Baghdad. Primakov, a former chief of Russian foreign intelligence, relayed the Russian offer to Saddam in a one-on-one meeting and later in front of his aides.
Primakov said in an interview with Russian television that Saddam dismissed the offer of exile. The former Iraqi president said the Soviet Union failed to honor its promises to help him in the 1991 Gulf war. "He then slapped me on the back and walked out," Primakov recalled.
Officials said Putin is determined to maintain a Russian presence in Iraq. He has ordered the Russian embassy in Baghdad to remain open in Moscow despite U.S. requests that all foreign embassies in the Iraqi capital shut down.
Officials said Moscow believes U.S. forces targeted a Russian embassy convoy on April 6 outside Baghdad. They said the convoy included cars with embassy plates and that some of the cars displayed Russian signs and flags.
The United States might have targeted the convoy believing it carried archives of the Saddam regime. The Moscow-based Nezavisimaya Gazeta said a CIA force tried to stop the Russian vehicles and seize the archives. But an Iraqi force that accompanied the Russian convoy opened fire on the U.S. commandos.
"Moscow will seek compensation for material losses and damages in accordance with international law," Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Aleksandr Yakovenko said.
I used to worry whenever Putin met with Clinton, because I had the feeling that Putin was outfoxing Clinton every time, and walking away from the table with more for Russia than America got for itself.
With President Bush, he may miscalculate, but he will only miscalculate once and adjust.
Regards, Ivan
Amen. We will never know the extent of both official and unofficial relationships.
What made me certain there was collaboration and sanction violation was the "coverage" of the war by Iraqwar.ru. Those reports were by Russian ex-military, and were incredibly anti-US and extremely proud of Russian cooperation with Iraq.
I hope the press stays on this story and covers it extremely well. I also hope that any french violations come to light, though the french support for Iraq's nuclear program, their oil deals with Iraq, and chiraq's infantile behavior at the UN already shows france to be unworthy of continued presence on the Security Council, to the extent the UN continues at all.
How much more evidence do we need of Iraq and the Russians actively working together? Here's a Russian press admission that
1.)The Russians do indeed have the secret service files of Iraq.
2.)That Iraqi forces were escorting this convoy.
3.)That CIA forces attempted to stop the convoy and were fired upon by the Iraqis on the orders of the Russians.
Like I said, how much more do we need?
ALERT...INA TODAY.com - INTERNATIONAL NEWS ANALYSIS by Toby Westerman -- TODAY: "ISRAEL PRESSURING U.S. TO TAKE AIM AT SYRIA?" (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "Among the weapons Syria supplies to Hezbollah is a missile with a range of between thirty and forty-two miles, putting Hezbollah guerrillas within firing range of Israeli villages. "It has gone too far," proclaimed the security official cited by Le Figaro. Syria's conventional forces are not impressive, with military equipment dating from the Soviet-era. The Syrian economy cannot bear the cost of modernization. Chemical and biological weapons are relatively inexpensive, however, and Syria is known to have worked on their development for many years, including the nerve agents Sarin and perhaps VX. Syria, in cooperation with North Korea, is working on the production of an improved Scud missile with a range of nearly 450 miles. Syria has never signed any international agreements limiting the spread and production of chemical and biological weapons, and refuses to supply the International Atomic Energy Agency with details on its nuclear activities. As with Iraq, Russia is Syria's most important supporter, with close relations between Moscow and Damascus going back to the Soviet era.") (April 16, 2003) (Read More...)
FOX NEWS.com (NY POST.com): "BAGHDAD SHOCKER BARES RUSSIA-SADDAM SPY TIE" (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "Top-secret Iraqi intelligence documents found in Baghdad show that Russia funneled spy secrets to Saddam Hussein and that Moscow was still training Iraqi spies last fall, in violation of U.N. sanctions, reports say. The captured documents also show that the Kremlin gave Saddam lists of assassins who could do "hits" in the West and that Iraq and Russia signed deals to share intelligence and help get "visas" so agents could go to Western countries, the London Telegraph reported.") (April 14, 2003) (Read More...)
TELEGRAPH.co.uk: "REVEALED: RUSSIA SPIED ON BLAIR FOR SADDAM" by David Harrison (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "Top secret documents obtained by The Telegraph in Baghdad show that Russia provided Saddam Hussein's regime with wide-ranging assistance in the months leading up to the war, including intelligence on private conversations between Tony Blair and other Western leaders. Moscow also provided Saddam with lists of assassins available for "hits" in the West and details of arms deals to neighbouring countries. The two countries also signed agreements to share intelligence, help each other to "obtain" visas for agents to go to other countries and to exchange information on the activities of Osama bin Laden, the al-Qa'eda leader. The documents detailing the extent of the links between Russia and Saddam were obtained from the heavily bombed headquarters of the Iraqi intelligence service in Baghdad yesterday.") (April 13, 2003) (Read More...)
INA TODAY.com - INTERNATIONAL NEWS ANALYSIS -- TODAY: "RUSSIA IN IRAQ -- THE HIDDEN PRESENCE" -Analysis by Toby Westerman (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "More than 3,000 Muslim congregations with a combined membership of 20 million believers belong to the Central Islamic Leadership. The chairman of the organization, Grand Mufti Talgat Tadschuddin, is urging his followers to use their money to buy weapons and supplies for use against the U.S. and in support of Iraq, according to a report in the German newsmagazine, Der Spiegel. Although the Russian Federation is currently fighting against Islamic militants within its borders, Moscow has close relations with "established" Muslim organizations throughout Russia.") (April 4, 2003) (Read More...)
WASHINGTON TIMES.com (AFP): "STALINIST STATE TO BUY MISSILES FROM RUSSIA" (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "TOKYO (Agence France-Presse) -- North Korea, locked in a nuclear standoff with the United States, plans to import leading-edge Russian missile and rocket systems via Syria to upgrade its ballistic missiles, a newspaper reported yesterday. The Stalinist state is expected to use the hardware, including the high-tech tactical missile Iskandar-E and the multiple-launch rocket system Smerch, to upgrade the guidance system and other functions of its long-range missiles, the Japanese newspaper Sankei Shimbun said. North Korea and Syria have a secret deal on the trade, possibly based on an agreement on scientific and technological cooperation, the conservative daily quoted military sources as saying. The science and technology accord was signed when North Korea's No. 2 official, Kim Yong-nam, the head of the Supreme People's Assembly, visited Syria in July last year.") (April 4, 2003) (Read More...)
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