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Deadly SARS Spreads World-Wide: Death Rate Increases and Doctors Worry About Mutating Virus
NewsPundit.net ^ | 4/18/2003 | Douglas Oliver

Posted on 04/18/2003 11:35:09 AM PDT by ex-Texan

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1 posted on 04/18/2003 11:35:10 AM PDT by ex-Texan
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To: ex-Texan
Can you say "The Stand".
2 posted on 04/18/2003 11:38:44 AM PDT by HELLRAISER II
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To: per loin
Hey per loin, did you see this one?
3 posted on 04/18/2003 11:39:30 AM PDT by iceskater
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To: Mother Abigail; CathyRyan; blam
ping.
4 posted on 04/18/2003 11:42:16 AM PDT by Black Agnes
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To: ex-Texan
" Or is their goal to confuse health officials and prevent them from learning the true cause of this dreaded disease?"

These Chinese actions sure lend more credence to these suspicions.

Other than buying surgical masks, how does a family prepare?

5 posted on 04/18/2003 11:54:40 AM PDT by blam
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To: ex-Texan
Death rate is hghest in those countries and cities were hygiene is not what it is in the US---handing washing is not a common occurrence throughout the world. SARS no matter the origin is similar to the common cold and the best way to avoid it or limit its effects is to practise the usual extra and washing during flu season
6 posted on 04/18/2003 11:58:14 AM PDT by jnarcus
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To: blam
I don't know what to do to prepare for an epidemic. The same as for any other natural disaster? I'm prepared for a natural disaster, but living during an epidemic is not something I can imagine...
7 posted on 04/18/2003 11:58:42 AM PDT by Judith Anne (God bless our soldiers with swift victory...)
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To: Judith Anne
I guess look to see what HK is doing? people are people and what they do is probably what we will do too?
8 posted on 04/18/2003 12:05:34 PM PDT by CathyRyan
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To: Judith Anne
My cat just killed a snake and left it at the backdoor. Outside and the great weather are not looking as inviting as it did a few hours ago. LOL
9 posted on 04/18/2003 12:10:14 PM PDT by CathyRyan
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To: Judith Anne
Hide in your house, don't go to church(continue your donations though) or malls. Get your kids out of schools/day care and don't go to work. Riding elevators with coughing people who have recently traveled to toronto is really dangerous.
10 posted on 04/18/2003 12:16:26 PM PDT by CJ Wolf
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To: Judith Anne
"The same as for any other natural disaster? I'm prepared for a natural disaster, but living during an epidemic is not something I can imagine..."

I have the natural disaster covered too. I guess I'll stay in the woods.

11 posted on 04/18/2003 12:17:57 PM PDT by blam
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To: jnarcus; CathyRyan; Mother Abigail; Dog Gone; Petronski; per loin; riri; flutters; Judith Anne; ...
handing washing is not a common occurrence throughout the world.

But I assume it is in Canada.

12 posted on 04/18/2003 12:20:34 PM PDT by aristeides
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To: ex-Texan
This is more evidence that SARS may be much worse

There is MORE evidence to say that SARS is coming under control ...

13 posted on 04/18/2003 12:20:51 PM PDT by _Jim (u)
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To: ex-Texan
"That would mean a rather dramatic increase in the death rate percentage from the old estimate of 4.9%, to a new estimated range of 6.8% to 9.3%. "

This growth in estimated mortality rate, as experience develops, is consistent with reporting of major natural disasters. If you think about it, when a large earthquake or major storm occurs, early reports list small numbers of casualties, and then over the next several days, more complete data is reported.

In this case, the reporting delays have been increased by the reflexive suppression of bad news by the Chinese government, but even without that, the extent of this epidemic, and its severity, remain to be determined. Given the estimate of at least a year before effective vaccines can be developed (RIGHT - - - just like we have an effective vaccine for the common cold!) I would take this news very seriously, and do some reading on how past epidemics (e.g. the post-WWI "Spanish Influenza") were handled, and work from there.
14 posted on 04/18/2003 12:22:41 PM PDT by Blue_Ridge_Mtn_Geek
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To: jnarcus
It's not just hand washing that's rare outside the US.

A common sight in China is someone bending over, pinching his nose and blowing the result onto the ground. For some reason, they think a handkerchief or kleenex is rude. Oh, they spit all the time too. This is most common with people from the countryside.
15 posted on 04/18/2003 12:22:52 PM PDT by RicocheT
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To: iceskater
Thanks for the ping. The death rate for Hong Kong seems now to be at a minimum of 7% of the hospitalized cases. Too little info is getting out to tell how far above that mimimum the actual figure will be.
16 posted on 04/18/2003 12:28:04 PM PDT by per loin
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To: _Jim
I wouldn't say that, remember we are talking about China here. I would not put it past them to intentionally spread the outbreak if they thought it would hurt their own country. What we are seeing now could be the tip of a very large iceburg in China.
17 posted on 04/18/2003 12:28:20 PM PDT by RockyMtnMan
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To: ex-Texan
What I would like to know is why China is hiding SARS patients ..

Get serious. China's government says there is no God, trust us to provide your every need. They have to lie, or else their godlessness is exposed.

18 posted on 04/18/2003 12:28:51 PM PDT by aimhigh
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To: Blue_Ridge_Mtn_Geek
I don't know, for weeks the news reported that SARS had a 3% mortality rate. They should have reported that there were too many yet unknowns to determine a mortality rate.
19 posted on 04/18/2003 12:32:07 PM PDT by TBall
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To: _Jim
I’m not a fear monger, I don’t panic easily and I’ve always been an optimist. Having said that I have been watching this thing from day one and I really can’t understand why you think it’s coming under control. I first watched this about a month ago with the first Toronto case. It started with 1 person. The entire medical establishment was informed and took every measure to bring it under control yet it has mushroomed from 4 probable cases in Canada to over 200 with over 300 suspected and many more under quarantine.

I just wish it would go away since I have a great many plans for the immediate future and they don’t involve plinking squirrels for dinner :). If it were under control then why did the death rate increase to 9.5% today and why has it spread to Montreall and even to the U.S. via Montreall. The numbers have been on a steady increase since day one. They do not indicate a diminishing problem.
20 posted on 04/18/2003 12:33:59 PM PDT by sytole
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To: _Jim
There is MORE evidence to say that SARS is coming under control ...

Kindly help us out with some links showing specific evidence, please. We would all appreciate it.

21 posted on 04/18/2003 12:38:27 PM PDT by Gritty
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To: ex-Texan
The death rates mentioned are for those who show the syndrome, not for those who get the virus. The rate at which people who have the virus are showing the syndrome has not been reported, that I have seen.
22 posted on 04/18/2003 12:43:00 PM PDT by Born to Conserve
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To: Gritty; CathyRyan; Mother Abigail; Dog Gone; Petronski; per loin; riri; flutters; Judith Anne; ...
FDA seeks to keep SARS out of blood supply .
23 posted on 04/18/2003 12:43:23 PM PDT by aristeides
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To: sytole
SARS quarantine reaches Montreal .
24 posted on 04/18/2003 12:45:05 PM PDT by aristeides
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To: CathyRyan
Some good posts on this thread, don't you think? Looks to me like most people "get it." I think I'll take the one suggestion and read up on the 1918 epidemic... I do have a nightmare...and that's IF the epidemic gets a genuine foothold in the US, and some CDC jackass gets a regulation passed that nurses have to work and can't refuse...
25 posted on 04/18/2003 12:46:04 PM PDT by Judith Anne (God bless our soldiers with swift victory...)
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To: Born to Conserve
The death rates mentioned are for those who show the syndrome, not for those who get the virus. The rate at which people who have the virus are showing the syndrome has not been reported, that I have seen.

I think that's one of the unknowns, at this point. Even if there's a test in the immediate offing, it's not available on a wide basis nor is it likely to be, anytime soon.

26 posted on 04/18/2003 12:47:55 PM PDT by Judith Anne (God bless our soldiers with swift victory...)
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To: All
SARS quarantine reaches Montreal

MONTREAL - About 300 people in Montreal have been asked to stay at home because of concern they may have been exposed to SARS by a man from Ontario.

A Toronto man who attended a financial training conference in Quebec last weekend has since checked himself into hospital with SARS–like symptoms.

Roughly 450 were at the meeting–more than 300 from Montreal. Another 90 were from the United States.

The head of the infectious diseases unit of Montreal's public health department, Dr. John Carsley, said officials have tracked down everyone involved and recommended they go into quarantine.

"We expect that most people were exposed very, very little," Carsley told a news conference on Thursday.

"But given that everybody was in the same room for three and a half or four hours, and another two hours in the evening, we felt that we couldn't judge individual exposures, and that we must consider everybody."

The precautionary, 10–day quarantine will end this Tuesday.

Details about the conference, including the name of the financial company and the hotel, have not been released.

Carsley said there's no danger to the general public, and that so far none of the people at the meeting has developed SARS–like symptoms.

SARS quarantine reaches Montreal

27 posted on 04/18/2003 12:49:16 PM PDT by aristeides
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To: aristeides
Some good links, boy oh boy, they raise a lot of questions in my mind...
28 posted on 04/18/2003 12:49:51 PM PDT by Judith Anne (God bless our soldiers with swift victory...)
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To: ex-Texan
Click Here for Michael Fumento's take on this. He's a doctor who specializes in infectious diseases. I heard him interviewed on Dennis Prager's radio show last week and he characterized SARS as "MASS HYSTERIA".

He cited the statistics for influenza (ordinary flu) deaths in the USA at around 35,000 a year. 35,000! From the flu!

SARS has a long way to go before becoming worth worrying about in his opinion.

It is just that the label "mysterious" in the current climate of world events (terrorism) inflates the perceived danger to a ridiculous level.....

29 posted on 04/18/2003 12:50:20 PM PDT by rightwingreligiousfanatic (I'm being followed by a moonshadow...)
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To: sytole
From what I can tell _Jim doesn't let logic get in the way. Waco was by the book, TWA 800 was caused by a center fuel tank explosion, and Vince Foster simply killed himself in the park.
30 posted on 04/18/2003 12:52:20 PM PDT by TBall
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To: Gritty
>>>>There is MORE evidence to say that SARS is coming under control ...

>>Kindly help us out with some links showing specific evidence, please. We would all appreciate it.

Don't you just love it when people throw out statements like that with absolutely nothing to back it up?

31 posted on 04/18/2003 12:53:44 PM PDT by freeper12
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To: Judith Anne
I guess if things turn bad, I would volunteer to help. I have no family that I would bring it home to. I do not know if they would want me but maybe I could help some way.
32 posted on 04/18/2003 1:01:40 PM PDT by CathyRyan
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To: blam
- Surgical masks are no good unless they are N-95, which is what is used for treating tuberculosis patients.

- Latex gloves for handling contaminated clothing and personal effects if a member of your household gets sick.

- Ten days food and water for every member of the household, including pets, in case you are quarantined.

- A stash of cash in case you are quarantined so you can order things to be delivered to the door, although if I were the delivery company I'd rather be paid via debit or credit card, and leave the delivery at the door, so just keep enough liquidity in your accounts to be able to do this.

- Bleach water will kill the virus, is my understanding, and so will alcohol hand cleaner.

- I believe you live out in the country, so you probably don't have to worry about roaches spreading it from your neighbors, but if I lived in an apartment complex or a townhouse complex or a trailer park I'd get the place sprayed for roaches.

>>What are the dirtiest public places?Here they are in order of dirtiness. Playgrounds have most contaminated surfaces. Here are the other top eight:
*Public telephones
*Public rest-room surfaces
*Counter pens
*Chair armrests
*Elevator buttons
*Escalator handrails
*Shopping cart handrails
*Grocery store refrigerator handles<<
http://experts.longisland.com/children/archive_article.php?ExpArtID=478

- Wash your hands.

- Don't sit on public toilet seats.

33 posted on 04/18/2003 1:03:32 PM PDT by CobaltBlue (Support the coalition! Buy goods made by our allies.)
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To: CobaltBlue
Some excellent suggestions in your post, and interesting information.

Spread through the air, however...that's where isolation comes in...
34 posted on 04/18/2003 1:08:32 PM PDT by Judith Anne (God bless our soldiers with swift victory...)
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To: rightwingreligiousfanatic
Michael Fumento's "take" on it is almost a month old.

A lot of water under the bridge since he wrote that.
35 posted on 04/18/2003 1:08:53 PM PDT by CobaltBlue (Support the coalition! Buy goods made by our allies.)
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To: rightwingreligiousfanatic
He cited the statistics for influenza (ordinary flu) deaths in the USA at around 35,000 a year.

This is true. And there are more than 40,000 deaths of traffic accidents in the US each year. Neither statistic carries any implication for SARS.

36 posted on 04/18/2003 1:09:25 PM PDT by Nebullis
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To: Judith Anne
Spread through the air, however...that's where isolation comes in...

I don't think airborne transmission of SARS has been established yet. If it happens at all, it appears to be rare.

37 posted on 04/18/2003 1:10:12 PM PDT by aristeides
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To: _Jim
You may be right that SARS is coming under control, but I think it's too soon to tell.

38 posted on 04/18/2003 1:13:41 PM PDT by CobaltBlue (Support the coalition! Buy goods made by our allies.)
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To: CathyRyan
Cathy, I'm sure that in a worst-case scenario, anyone willing to help would be overwhelmed with offers...barring that, I think what you are doing here on FR to help educate us all is wonderful. ;-D Anything that brings INFORMATION to the huge FR databank is wonderful, imho.

Did you read Aristeides' links? Spooky.
39 posted on 04/18/2003 1:13:48 PM PDT by Judith Anne (God bless our soldiers with swift victory...)
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To: aristeides
I DO think it's spread through the air, commonly.
40 posted on 04/18/2003 1:15:11 PM PDT by Judith Anne (God bless our soldiers with swift victory...)
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To: Judith Anne
>>Spread through the air, however<<

No, they think it's also spread by physical contact with an infected person, by physical contact with items an infected person has touched (elevator buttons, for example), and that roaches are carrying it after coming in contact with contaminated fecal matter.
41 posted on 04/18/2003 1:15:29 PM PDT by CobaltBlue (Support the coalition! Buy goods made by our allies.)
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To: ex-Texan
The mystery I can't figure out---how did this topic end up in Crime/Corruption?
42 posted on 04/18/2003 1:15:46 PM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: Judith Anne
"Did you read Aristeides' links?" I just did yikes!
43 posted on 04/18/2003 1:17:31 PM PDT by TBall
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To: Judith Anne
Here's one report, for example, that denies airborne transmission: Sewage said carried the virus through Hong Kong high-rise .
44 posted on 04/18/2003 1:25:05 PM PDT by aristeides
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To: CobaltBlue
Here's something I recently found on google.

http://www.cdha.nshealth.ca/physicianupdate/sars/sarsUpdateApril032003.html

1. If an outpatient who has regular scheduled visits with the hospital has traveled within the last 10 days to an area of the world where there is SARS (eg. Hong Kong) and has a scheduled appointment with a department on their return what precautions should we take? If the outpatient does not have symptoms of SARS (fever more than 38 degrees Celsius and one or more of cough, shortness of breath, or difficulty breathing) then no special precautions are required. You simply follow usual, good infection control practices as are used for all patients. If the patient has symptoms that are suspicious for SARS, then the patient should be instructed to wear a surgical mask and arrangements made to send him/her to the emergency room for assessment. While the patient is in your area, he/she should be placed in a single room with no other patients and the door kept closed. You should wear a N95 mask, gown, and gloves if you have direct contact with the patient. The emergency room must be contacted to tell them that the patient is coming to be evaluated for SARS and arrangements should be made to escort the patient to Emergency. Be sure to tell Emergency the patient’s name! Call infection control for further instructions.

Sorry, but N95 mask means airborne contagion.

45 posted on 04/18/2003 1:26:47 PM PDT by Judith Anne (God bless our soldiers with swift victory...)
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To: Nebullis; All
And there are more than 40,000 deaths of traffic accidents in the US each year. Neither statistic carries any implication for SARS

Of course not. But the point is that it is way to early to proclaim SARS to be anything even remotely like AIDS, for example. We simply don't know enough about it yet.

Tuberculosis kills 3 million people annualy, malaria another 2 plus million. You don't see many headlines screaming about those diseases do you?

This is the crisis du jour, a titillating little fright that the mediots thrive on. Don't buy into their efforts to panic you.... at least not until there is much more substantial evidence....

46 posted on 04/18/2003 1:32:47 PM PDT by rightwingreligiousfanatic (I'm being followed by a moonshadow...)
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To: aristeides
They may deny it, but here's my take:

People in respiratory distress cough and their respiration is very harsh--and this virus sets up, among other areas in the body, in the lungs. They are going to shed virus when they cough. N95 masks and face shields would be absolutely pointless if there were not airborne transmission--it would be just like any other viral pneumonia.

Think on it--colds are spread NOT ONLY through doorknobs, but also through people sneezing and coughing.





47 posted on 04/18/2003 1:32:55 PM PDT by Judith Anne (God bless our soldiers with swift victory...)
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To: CobaltBlue
Last I heard there was a six foot aerosol precaution for SARS.
48 posted on 04/18/2003 1:33:13 PM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: Judith Anne
I don't think the portal of entry for the virus or the method of transmission has been established yet. A waterborne virus can gain entry either through direct contact with contaminated water or airborne via earosols. These are not mutually exclusive.
49 posted on 04/18/2003 1:34:11 PM PDT by Nebullis
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To: rightwingreligiousfanatic
There are many people killed by automobiles in the USA every year, but none killed by the explosion of nuclear bombs. But if we knew that terrorists had a nuclear bomb ready to explode in downtown Chicago, we would take extraordinary steps to prevent that explosion, despite the large number of people killed by automobiles each year.

In like manner, we are taking extraordinary measures to keep SARS from exploding in the USA, despite the number of people killed by the flu each year.

50 posted on 04/18/2003 1:35:09 PM PDT by per loin
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