Where SARS Stands on the Disaster Scale

Business Week ^ | April 22, 2003 | Bruce Einhorn

[Dog Gone]

With its hotels empty and the airport quiet, Hong Kong's economy is getting hammered by severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). It's so bad that many people have said SARS is to Hong Kong what September 11 was to New York -- a sudden, unexpected event causing death and economic paralysis. While the sheer number of deaths is nowhere near September 11's toll, the economic impact is all too similar.

[forewarning]

Some good observations, but waffles the basic question.

[Steven W.]

When you get really, really, scared, just remind yourself Y2K, Y2K and realize that it just might be ok out there, after all, no matter how scary things might look.

[SauronOfMordor]

The really troubling thing is that we really don't have good numbers yet for how bad this is. We have numbers for people who were sick enough to require medical attention (and if you're on that list, your outlook is serious -- outside of mainland China, the death rate looks to be over 10%, when you discount people who are still sick).

What we don't know is what percentage of people are naturally immune, and what percentage of people will just get minor symptoms and recover without needing medical attention.

Another big issue is the mutation rate. SARS is in the same family as the common cold. The reason you don't get immunity from colds is that you keep getting hit with mutated different variants. It's one thing if SARS can hit you once, and maybe kill you. It's another thing if it can keep coming back every few months, killing more people each time.

[Fitzcarraldo]

The SARS virus resembles corona viruses from other species. Has the lethality with respect to say, farm animals, been established?

What if this was designed as a universal virus that would kill both humans and their lifestock?

[txhurl]

BTTT