Posted on 04/24/2003 10:02:03 AM PDT by ex-Texan
SARS Death Rate Increases to 16% - 25% and the Mutating Virus Attacks Many Vital Organs
There is more evidence that SARS may be much worse than World Health Officials are admitting. In fact, my research convinces me that health officials are very worried about this deadly new virus.
I am deeply concerned about the correct computation of the death rate percentage. Thus far, authorities are simply dividing the number of deaths by the total number of SARS cases. That causes the death rate to be understated in my view. Some medical experts in public health agree with my position. SARS often requires a long hospital stay and intensive care before the patient is deemed to be "cured." Many patients have been hospitalized for three weeks.
Dividing the number of deaths by the number of cured patients results in a death rate percentage of 16% or even higher. In Canada, the adjusted rate has been computed to be about 25%.
* * *
But there is more bad news emerging about this Chinese mystery virus. Doctors are beginning to fear the virus may be mutating into an even more deadly form as it spreads around the world. From a report in New Scientist any mutation in the virus is a genuine cause for even more concern.
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CBN News has a new report up on April 24th from the AP. SARS has caused one hospital in Beijing to lock its doors. New deaths have caused the local authorities to raise the "official" death rate percentage to 7% but health officials openly talk about a 10% death rate.
More disturbing information about Chinese genetic experiments with viruses appeared on ABS-CBN News today. Now the reports about SARS as bio-weapon are appearing all over the Internet. (See My Reports Below)
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The Age.com reports on April 21st that the deadly SARS virus acts on several vital organs and acts like a bio-weapon. A medical expert in Hong Kong worries openly about its bio-weapon potential.
A Wired News report filed on April 21st says that a medical scientist has determined that the SARS death rate may be above 18% and might be as high as 25% in Canada. That is truly scary indeed.
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SMH.com confirms reports virus has mutated and now causes major intestional damage.
(Excerpt) Read more at newspundit.net ...
Good point
maybe shorter time from infection or different genotype here??
i see your point: if it's really that bad, why aren't more people very sick or dead?
we can't trust the chinese for accurate data on attack rate or death rate, so we watch canada to see how rapidly it spreads and what happens to those infected. as noted mortality rate is not a good measure of the danger of an infectious disease with a long (to those wanting to know) injury/convalesce period; too many people who could either die or recover to make the numbers meaningful now.
sky is falling vs. buy tin foil futures. take your pick, the wheel's still in spin.
btw, i think ex-texan has a clue or two.......
I do not know the answer to this one for most other diseases but when discussing smallpox the 30% mortality rate means of every 100 infected by the time the disease has run its course 30 will be dead from the disease.
Why are we now getting a handful of people spouting these new stats? What is their agenda? Plenty of organizations were using the lower mortality rate figures. Were they ALL wrong?
It just seems to me like people have to have some crisis all the time and if there isn't a real one, then let's hurry and make one up. Since the war is over, we have to fill the void. Hey! Let's over-hype SARS!
Disclaimer: I come from a family, and have since produced a family with absolutely beautiful immune systems. I have no fear of this disease at this time.
I do not intend to debate the SARS virus endlessly on FR ... there is no point. Both sides have medical experts supporting their position.
Yelling out "Tin Foil !" turns me off immediately. It is just like the Clitonistas defending Bubba's impeachment ... 'Nuff said.
Have You Seen These Projections?
From 100 known cases on or about March 25th to over 31 million infected with SARS ... by October 30, 2003. If the death rate is only 7% that is still over 2 million deaths.
Work the rest of the statistical projections out in your head. As for me, I'm out of here.
Fortunately, I took the time to look at the pdf file....31 Million is the high projection, with the "average" projection being 788K and the low projection being 18K
Please do not abuse the statistics....
Yes...it is possible...they are the same doctors that can put kids on Ritalin and come up with new ailments, such as IDontFeelLikeWorkingToday Syndrome. Qualified research told us in the 50's that cigarettes were good for you and now tells us that global warming will destroy the world as we know it. I don't blame people for questioning medical scientists qualified with years of reasearch and statistics; because they'll flat out lie if it benefits them in some way, shape or form just as much as the average Joe would.
Mystery illness extends its reach
Clifton Park-- Easter visitor becomes county's first suspected SARS case
By CLAIRE HUGHES, Staff writer
First published: Thursday, April 24, 2003
A woman visiting family in Clifton Park has Saratoga County's first suspected case of severe acute respiratory syndrome, bringing the total number of Capital Region cases of the flu-like illness to four.
County health officials won't disclose the woman's residence, due to confidentiality rules, but said she had traveled through Toronto to arrive here Friday to visit with family for Easter. She has agreed to remain in her relatives' home -- under voluntary quarantine -- until more is known about her condition.
Health officials became aware of the case Tuesday after the woman went to a medical clinic seeking treatment, said Terry Stortz, Saratoga County Public Health prevention team supervisor. She had started to feel ill Sunday, Stortz said. On Wednesday, the state listed the patient as one of 17 suspected SARS cases being monitored throughout New York.
Because the laboratory test to confirm SARS is new and time-consuming, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta tracks cases of the disease that are suspected. Symptoms of SARS include a fever over 100.4, headache, muscle stiffness and loss of appetite. To be classified as a suspected case of SARS, a person also must have traveled to a region where SARS has spread throughout the community. Toronto is one of those locations.
None of the woman's four Clifton Park relatives in the house with her have symptoms of the disease, Stortz said. They have been given tips for staying well, including monitoring their symptoms and washing their hands frequently. Unless they develop symptoms of the illness, however, they will not be asked to stay home, Stortz said.
Health workers who treated the patient should remain well if they used common precautions for not spreading the disease, such as washing their hands well. The disease is believed to be spread only through close contact with a SARS patient, including exposure to body fluids like phlegm.
The illness, whose cause was recently determined to be a coronavirus, has spread through 27 countries since November. More than 4,000 people have developed the infection, which has killed 251 people, according to the World Health Organization. There are 39 suspected cases in the United States.
State and federal health officials have listed three other area patients -- two in Rensselaer County and one in Schenectady County -- as having suspected cases of SARS. All had traveled to China, where SARS originated and thousands of people have been infected. All have recovered, health officials said. No one they were in contact with has shown symptoms of the disease.
The Schenectady County case involved a businessman who never developed the most-severe pneumonia-like symptoms of the disease, said Lisa Ayers, a communicable disease nurse for the county Health Department. It will probably never be known whether he really had it.
"We wanted to err on the side of caution and keep the individual home because there was travel history," Ayers said.
What I laugh at are the ones who keep saying, "Boy, if several million folks get this, it would overwhelm our health care system!" Yes, and that would also happen if meteors all destroyed half the hospitals in the US at the same time. There have been about 40 cases in the US, no deaths. I don't think those numbers would even overwhelm the smallest hospital in the country. Lots of the US cases haven't even -needed- hospitalization.
I know this is a nasty bug. I just don't see it wiping out a good chunk of civilization. And if we trust "projections", well hey, tell me definitively what the stock market's gonna do in the next 6 months and I'll kiss you full on the lips. (no tongue :)
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