SARS Death Rate Increases to 16% - 25% and the Mutating Virus Attacks Many Vital Organs

NewsPundit.net ^ | 4/24/2003 | Douglas Oliver

[Trust but Verify]

I asked whther all mortality rates are calculated this way. As someone with two advanced degrees, surely you would have the answer to this question.

[Snowy]

When someone in the US dies from SARS, then I'll think about worrying.

[Trust but Verify]

I asked whether all mortality rates are calculated this way. As someone with two advanced degrees, surely you would have the answer to this question.

[A. Pole]

"The SARS threads are great for laughs."
They're fun until the the show is in your local theaters.

Good point

[philomath]

death rate is really so high, why hasn't anyone died in the US?

maybe shorter time from infection or different genotype here??
i see your point: if it's really that bad, why aren't more people very sick or dead?
we can't trust the chinese for accurate data on attack rate or death rate, so we watch canada to see how rapidly it spreads and what happens to those infected. as noted mortality rate is not a good measure of the danger of an infectious disease with a long (to those wanting to know) injury/convalesce period; too many people who could either die or recover to make the numbers meaningful now.
sky is falling vs. buy tin foil futures. take your pick, the wheel's still in spin.
btw, i think ex-texan has a clue or two.......

[harpseal]

And I still say it's fuzzy math regardless of who is doing it. When they figure out other mortality rates, do they use this method of excluding those who are sick but haven't yet recovered or succumbed? My guess would be no.

I do not know the answer to this one for most other diseases but when discussing smallpox the 30% mortality rate means of every 100 infected by the time the disease has run its course 30 will be dead from the disease.

[Trust but Verify]

No, I just don't think there is sufficient cause for panic. Who are the people getting sick? Are they the very old or the very young? Are they immune-compromised in some meaningful way? How long were they ill before seeking treatment? What was their access to QUALITY health care? Did they get quality health care?

Why are we now getting a handful of people spouting these new stats? What is their agenda? Plenty of organizations were using the lower mortality rate figures. Were they ALL wrong?

It just seems to me like people have to have some crisis all the time and if there isn't a real one, then let's hurry and make one up. Since the war is over, we have to fill the void. Hey! Let's over-hype SARS!

Disclaimer: I come from a family, and have since produced a family with absolutely beautiful immune systems. I have no fear of this disease at this time.

[ex-Texan]

I agree with you.

I do not intend to debate the SARS virus endlessly on FR ... there is no point. Both sides have medical experts supporting their position.

Yelling out "Tin Foil !" turns me off immediately. It is just like the Clitonistas defending Bubba's impeachment ... 'Nuff said.

Have You Seen These Projections?

From 100 known cases on or about March 25th to over 31 million infected with SARS ... by October 30, 2003. If the death rate is only 7% that is still over 2 million deaths.

Work the rest of the statistical projections out in your head. As for me, I'm out of here.

[savedbygrace]

Douglas must have been too busy to take the remedial math course his college offered him, what with all the parties and other cool stuff he had to do.

[ContemptofCourt]

"From 100 known cases on or about March 25th to over 31 million infected with SARS"

Fortunately, I took the time to look at the pdf file....31 Million is the high projection, with the "average" projection being 788K and the low projection being 18K

Please do not abuse the statistics....

[BureaucratusMaximus]

'Fuzzy math' -- by medical scientists qualified with years of reasearch and statistics .... ?

Yes...it is possible...they are the same doctors that can put kids on Ritalin and come up with new ailments, such as IDontFeelLikeWorkingToday Syndrome. Qualified research told us in the 50's that cigarettes were good for you and now tells us that global warming will destroy the world as we know it. I don't blame people for questioning medical scientists qualified with years of reasearch and statistics; because they'll flat out lie if it benefits them in some way, shape or form just as much as the average Joe would.

[aristeides]

Saudis say kingdom may have first fatal SARS case .

[1Old Pro]

Clifton Park, NY is near the capital, Albany New York.

 

Mystery illness extends its reach

Clifton Park-- Easter visitor becomes county's first suspected SARS case

By CLAIRE HUGHES, Staff writer
First published: Thursday, April 24, 2003

A woman visiting family in Clifton Park has Saratoga County's first suspected case of severe acute respiratory syndrome, bringing the total number of Capital Region cases of the flu-like illness to four.

County health officials won't disclose the woman's residence, due to confidentiality rules, but said she had traveled through Toronto to arrive here Friday to visit with family for Easter. She has agreed to remain in her relatives' home -- under voluntary quarantine -- until more is known about her condition.

Health officials became aware of the case Tuesday after the woman went to a medical clinic seeking treatment, said Terry Stortz, Saratoga County Public Health prevention team supervisor. She had started to feel ill Sunday, Stortz said. On Wednesday, the state listed the patient as one of 17 suspected SARS cases being monitored throughout New York.

Because the laboratory test to confirm SARS is new and time-consuming, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta tracks cases of the disease that are suspected. Symptoms of SARS include a fever over 100.4, headache, muscle stiffness and loss of appetite. To be classified as a suspected case of SARS, a person also must have traveled to a region where SARS has spread throughout the community. Toronto is one of those locations.

None of the woman's four Clifton Park relatives in the house with her have symptoms of the disease, Stortz said. They have been given tips for staying well, including monitoring their symptoms and washing their hands frequently. Unless they develop symptoms of the illness, however, they will not be asked to stay home, Stortz said.

Health workers who treated the patient should remain well if they used common precautions for not spreading the disease, such as washing their hands well. The disease is believed to be spread only through close contact with a SARS patient, including exposure to body fluids like phlegm.

The illness, whose cause was recently determined to be a coronavirus, has spread through 27 countries since November. More than 4,000 people have developed the infection, which has killed 251 people, according to the World Health Organization. There are 39 suspected cases in the United States.

State and federal health officials have listed three other area patients -- two in Rensselaer County and one in Schenectady County -- as having suspected cases of SARS. All had traveled to China, where SARS originated and thousands of people have been infected. All have recovered, health officials said. No one they were in contact with has shown symptoms of the disease.

The Schenectady County case involved a businessman who never developed the most-severe pneumonia-like symptoms of the disease, said Lisa Ayers, a communicable disease nurse for the county Health Department. It will probably never be known whether he really had it.

"We wanted to err on the side of caution and keep the individual home because there was travel history," Ayers said.

[DannyTN]

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/graphics/2002/08/13/wirq13.jpeg

"SARS is under control" Baghdad Bob

[TheBigB]

China screwed the pooch. The only reason their numbers are so high is because they denied it for so long and allowed it to spread. Hong Kong I trust a little more...their numbers are stabilizing. They've had more people released from hospitals than have been admitted over the past few days. If we want to look at Canada, they've had 267 probable and suspect cases in Ontario since the start of the outbreak; 124 remain in hospital or under active surveillance in their homes. That doesn't exactly scream to me that this is spreading like wildfire. And bear in mind, a lot of these cases came about before China admitted to the cover up, so no preventative measures were in place in these countries.

What I laugh at are the ones who keep saying, "Boy, if several million folks get this, it would overwhelm our health care system!" Yes, and that would also happen if meteors all destroyed half the hospitals in the US at the same time. There have been about 40 cases in the US, no deaths. I don't think those numbers would even overwhelm the smallest hospital in the country. Lots of the US cases haven't even -needed- hospitalization.

I know this is a nasty bug. I just don't see it wiping out a good chunk of civilization. And if we trust "projections", well hey, tell me definitively what the stock market's gonna do in the next 6 months and I'll kiss you full on the lips. (no tongue :)

[TheLion]

Bump

[tuna_battle_slight_return]

Let's Panic.

[aristeides]

Apparently the extent of that Clifton Park woman's connection with Toronto was a five-hour layover there. That was enough to catch SARS. SARS Attacks Capital Region .