Posted on 04/24/2003 10:02:03 AM PDT by ex-Texan
Like I said, great for laughs...
This guy is no mathematician. You divide the umber dead by the TOTAL NUMBER OF CASES, not by the number of survivors. Doing it the way he suggests would lead you to believe that if 100 people get a disease and 10 die, the 10 deaths divided by 90 survivors = 11.1%. Clearly inflated abore the real 10% rate.
No offense to Tennessee but, that might just be the funniest thing I have read to date on FR. ROTFL.
Actually, I have the right to disagree and demean their journalism any time I want!
And I still say it's fuzzy math regardless of who is doing it. When they figure out other mortality rates, do they use this method of excluding those who are sick but haven't yet recovered or succumbed? My guess would be no.
In fact, there is genuine concern that medically approved masks even work to provide adequate protection.
The admitted death rate in Hong Kong is 7% today ... tomorrow it will be 10% or higher. Just three weeks ago doctors were says it was < 2.5%. Maybe the doctors are just running scared and trying to calm people down -- while they lock the hospital doors ?And they are locking hospital doors, and have locked them in Hong Kong, Toronto and Beijing.
If you do not think the Chinese were experimenting with coronaviruses I have a bridge to the future to sell you.
Erasmus Medical Institute says 'not a bioweapon' -- but two world famous Russian medical experts say it definitely is man-made and a possible bioweapon.
The experts disagree. Pick and chose your experts. Then yell "Tin Foil" at the side you do not agree with. Very typical of Bill Clinton's obstructionist tactics, designed to yell down people who have serious questions they want answered.
Tactics do not win battles against a dangerous illness.
the articles don't do a good job of explaining his expertise; just because someone teaches at a medical school doesn't make them an authority among their peers or at-large.
looks like this guy is fairy well published in med literature, with a lot of work in oncogenes (cancer genes) and division rates of viruses.
niman seems to have the work to back up his opinions.....
From the TENNESSEAN...
"The state Health Department receives telephone calls ''daily'' about possible cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome, SARS, but to date there are no cases of the disease in Tennessee, State Epidemiologist Allen Craig told a legislative committee yesterday.
In a special briefing requested by the House Health and Human Resources Committee, Craig reported that there are 38 probable cases of the dread disease that apparently originated in southern China last fall and has since spread to Hong Kong, Singapore, Vietnam and Canada.
Craig said there has been ''no community spread'' of it in the United States.
Craig told the lawmakers that people at risk are those who have traveled to where the disease has been found or have associated with such travelers.
He said it spreads ''like the common cold, apparently by respiratory droplets,'' and causes death in about 4% of its victims.
He said antibiotics do not seem to affect it.
It is such a new disease that an effective treatment has yet to be found.
'Fuzzy math' -- by medical scientists qualified with years of reasearch and statistics .... ?
I believe the good doctors. Sorry. I happen to have two advanced degrees myself and studied statistics at the graduate level.
'Nuff said. Over and out.
Hard to say. At this point if they claim the sky is falling and nothing much happens it could mean their reputations go down the tubes along with the risk.
I suspect everyone involved is doing their best to evaluate it correctly. Too much is on the line to do otherwise.
For all of you who are laughing at SARS now, all I can say is, I hope you are right. I am usually one of the first to ridicule the media coverage of imaginary threats as sensationalist, but this time I just don't know.
m = d/(d+s)
I am making no statement if this is the best way to calculate probable mortality but I note that China has a vested interest in minimizing the danger of the disease.
Your own degrees are scientific in nature, I assume?
you're being entirely too scientific and reasonable here. mr B's confirmation model of throwing a match to prove the smelly gasoline-colored liqid is not gas has a proud tradition. not many survivors, but a proud tradition nonetheless...
I only have one advanced degree and only have a minor in statistics, but I know enough to know that I can spin any set of numbers any way I want for my desired outcome.
250 have died from this disease....that is not even a blip on the radar, yet people are screaming that it is the end of the world....
He was at least a week behind in the news when he said it. Old News ... is no news.
Three weeks ago there were 100 admitted cases in Hong Kong. Today there are 4,300 cases world wide and counting in 27 countries ... Oops! 28 today. Tomorrow 30 + ...
There is no known immunity, and no known cure. The virus is mutating rapidly so the genetic code that was worked out two weeks ago is incorrect. The Chinese said it was X, then was Y, and today the virus has mutated and it is Z for the next week. The virus attacks the lungs, kidneys, lymphy system and intestines.
Tomorrow they will say it is worse than AIDS -- and will kill every AIDS patient it infects.
'Nuff said. Over and out.
Just to clarify, I'm not trying to belittle anyone who has legitimate concerns over SARS. But Jeeze Loo-weeze...there have been what, about 100 deaths in China...out of a nation of a BILLION? About 40 probable cases in the US, NO deaths. If the death rate is really so high, why hasn't anyone died in the US?
You're clueless. Over and out.
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