Posted on 04/24/2003 10:02:03 AM PDT by ex-Texan
SARS Death Rate Increases to 16% - 25% and the Mutating Virus Attacks Many Vital Organs
There is more evidence that SARS may be much worse than World Health Officials are admitting. In fact, my research convinces me that health officials are very worried about this deadly new virus.
I am deeply concerned about the correct computation of the death rate percentage. Thus far, authorities are simply dividing the number of deaths by the total number of SARS cases. That causes the death rate to be understated in my view. Some medical experts in public health agree with my position. SARS often requires a long hospital stay and intensive care before the patient is deemed to be "cured." Many patients have been hospitalized for three weeks.
Dividing the number of deaths by the number of cured patients results in a death rate percentage of 16% or even higher. In Canada, the adjusted rate has been computed to be about 25%.
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But there is more bad news emerging about this Chinese mystery virus. Doctors are beginning to fear the virus may be mutating into an even more deadly form as it spreads around the world. From a report in New Scientist any mutation in the virus is a genuine cause for even more concern.
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CBN News has a new report up on April 24th from the AP. SARS has caused one hospital in Beijing to lock its doors. New deaths have caused the local authorities to raise the "official" death rate percentage to 7% but health officials openly talk about a 10% death rate.
More disturbing information about Chinese genetic experiments with viruses appeared on ABS-CBN News today. Now the reports about SARS as bio-weapon are appearing all over the Internet. (See My Reports Below)
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The Age.com reports on April 21st that the deadly SARS virus acts on several vital organs and acts like a bio-weapon. A medical expert in Hong Kong worries openly about its bio-weapon potential.
A Wired News report filed on April 21st says that a medical scientist has determined that the SARS death rate may be above 18% and might be as high as 25% in Canada. That is truly scary indeed.
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SMH.com confirms reports virus has mutated and now causes major intestional damage.
(Excerpt) Read more at newspundit.net ...
It is very entertaining to watch the debate here - but to keep your end legitemite, you need to treat the figures from China with caution - NO ONE believes their death figures. Some people definitely can't wait for the end of the world, and then others can't believe there will ever be a change in the status quo. Preconceived notions will bite the dust, whichever side they're on.
But you have to admit, the numbers from China are crap.
At this point, China's numbers should be disregarded and we should be looking at Toronto. That is a more reliable indicator.
Also, China is basically a 3d-world country...hard to say what kind of care they are getting there, besides living is crappy, overcrowded conditions.
My figures on the Hong Kong outbreak indicate a much lower death rate.
catch me first. i'll be the one with the tinfoil mask with the hannibal lecter underlay....
http://www.hivandhepatitis.com/health/042303a.html
There are 304 "probable" SARS cases and 14 deaths from SARS in Toronto. Almost all the deaths in Toronto have been among persons over 70. About 7,000 people have been asked to place themselves in quarantine for fear that they might have been in contact with someone who had the disease. Nearly 66 hospital workers are listed as probable or suspected SARS cases in Toronto and the rest of Ontario province.
Kinky. ;-)
Tempest in a teapot, or global menace?
By the time it's confirmed one way or the other, it may be too late.
Interesting...she was never admitted to the hospital, is at home, and "on the road to recovery." Hardly the devastating disease SARS is supposed to be.
I believe that could be applicable in either location.
You'd have to try a little harder than that, I've got pretty big shoulders.
Plus, I'm a NYer.
SARS is an interesting story, not only because of the very real panic we see in Asia, but because it is a new disease. Nobody knew what it was or how deadly or communicable it was. We still don't have a lot of answers. Since we don't, some people predict doomsday, and others deny that the illness even exists.
We don't have a quick or reliable test for illness yet, and that makes quantifying the risks virtually impossible today. So, everyone gets to have an opinion without the benefit of many facts.
It makes for a fascinating story to watch.
Yeah, let me see, highly contagious, 5% to 25% death rate depending on you calulation. What exactly are you thinking anyway?
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