4,000 Quarantined in Beijing as Suspected SARS Cases Climb

New York Times ^ | 4/25/2003 | Erik Eckolm

[ex-Texan]

4,000 Quarantined in Beijing as Suspected SARS Cases Climb

EIJING, April 25 — At least 4,000 Beijing residents with exposure to a contagious respiratory disease are being kept in isolation, often in their own homes, health authorities said today, and a second major hospital was put under total quarantine, with virtually no one allowed to enter or leave.

City education officials also revealed that 300 college students who had contact with infected people suffering the dangerous new disease, known as SARS, have been sequestered in a military training camp for two weeks' observation.

As Beijing began a stringent new quarantine program to try to halt the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome, pledging to isolate virus-exposed people and contaminated buildings, reported SARS cases in the capital continued to surge for the fifth straight day.

* * *

[Prince Charles]

Can I butt in on this thread?

[Judith Anne]

From the "SARS threads and information thread" put up by flutters, and posted at #10 by Blue_Ridge_Mtn_Geek, the phrase I was looking for a while ago when we were talking about an increase in SARS this fall...

Anyway, I hope you can follow this, the spring cases are the "herald wave" according to Dr. Burke at Johns Hopkins--this fall will tell the real SARS story...

[Judith Anne]

By all means! I've found myself in a mess of my own making and I could use some help! ;-D

[CJ Wolf]

So cheery, the spring herald wave sounds nice almost. Also sounds familar

http://www.pcc.com/lists/pedtalk.archive/0206/00033.html

"This flu strain is what's known as a herald wave, a prophecy of what we're likely to see next winter," said Dr. W. Paul Glezen, head epidemiologist at the Baylor College of Medicine Influenza Research Center. "We could have a pretty sharp outbreak of it."

Glezen added that the Hong Kong B strain of the flu isn't more severe than other strains. The A strain is a source of pandemics -- worldwide flu epidemics."

[The Pheonix]

IS a military camp a strange place or a good place to place college students under quarantine????
No, it is not strange, but quite natural, actually.
Military trainning camps have sports facilticites that young people can utilize to burn out their excess energy and to kll their boredom, from inactivity.....

[blam]

"I hope you can follow this, the spring cases are the "herald wave" according to Dr. Burke at Johns Hopkins--this fall will tell the real SARS story..."

Whew, thanks. I'm glad you didn't involve me in the butt washing discussion. (smile)

[Judith Anne]

I just couldn't help myself, with that hilarious "same bar of soap" comment...I mean, it just struck me as so strange and off the wall...I'm just thinking ahead to a nurses' banquet next month, one of the most enjoyable parts is just talking to other nurses, we have the weirdest sense of humor...;-D

[blam]

"...I'm just thinking ahead to a nurses' banquet next month."

Just make sure none have been taking care of SARS patients, eh?

[Judith Anne]

Yes, well, how would I know if someone had?

[Rain-maker]

...and there's still those people who play Russian roulette and 83% survive the first round..

So what's a mere 5% chance of death upon contraction, besides the world needs less people that live precariously.

Darwin guinea pigs unite, feed the worms!

[aristeides]

Interesting -- and frightening -- story of a survivor: Hong Kong Doctor's Ordeal as SARS Patient.

[riri]

I did. It trades under AVII. It went from $2.something Thursday and closed at $7.05 yesterday at close. I got in at about 5. We'll see...

[Judith Anne]

That was a good article regarding the Hong Kong doctor with SARS.

Betty Jo sent me a link to it via FReepmail...I hope everyone reads it.

[riri]

The company I am talking about is BIOPharma out of Oregon. They are marketing the antisense drugs.

[Dog Gone]

Fascinating tale.

[aristeides]

Billion SARS cases feared.

[Dog Gone]

My opinion on the threat SARS poses will depend largely on what happens in China in the next three or four weeks.

They've allowed it to run wild through their effort to control the PR aspects of this. Everything they've done has set the stage for an enormous outbreak throughout the entire country, if SARS is really as contagious as we might fear.

Conversely, if the outbreak does not occur, my concern will drop dramatically.

[EternalHope]

My opinion on the threat SARS poses will depend largely on what happens in China in the next three or four weeks.

That seems to be the logical conclusion. Singapore, Toronto, and Hanoi have all shown that SARS can be beat if an all out effort is made early in the outbreak. Hong Kong is still not out of the woods, but seems to be making progress.

However, eradicating SARS in mainland China seems hopeless. The most likely scenario is that SARS is "loose in the wild" and cannot be contained.

Since SARS is related to a common cold virus, it is reasonable to hope it will show the same strong seasonality that the common cold shows. If so, we will get some help from nature, starting now. The real test will come in November.

The 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic had a small "Herald Wave" in the spring, followed by essentially nothing during the summer, followed by world wide pandemic in the fall/winter.

[FITZ]

However, eradicating SARS in mainland China seems hopeless. The most likely scenario is that SARS is "loose in the wild" and cannot be contained.

A lot of cold viruses are started (mutate) in the bird populations and for some reason start in China and get spread when the birds migrate. I think we don't pay much attention when it's just a mild cold or flu ---but if this is some killer cold virus it could become a problem. Hopefully not.

[FITZ]

will depend largely on what happens in China in the next three or four weeks.

Probably ---but we certainly don't know all the factors. We might concentrate on preventing people-to-people spread when it's really some other way ----like bird-to-people.