4,000 Quarantined in Beijing as Suspected SARS Cases Climb

New York Times ^ | 4/25/2003 | Erik Eckolm

[Dog Gone]

Since SARS is related to a common cold virus, it is reasonable to hope it will show the same strong seasonality that the common cold shows. If so, we will get some help from nature, starting now. The real test will come in November.

I've seen that sentiment expressed by others, including some experts, but I don't see how it's based in reality. One of the worst outbreaks is in Singapore, and it's practically on the equator.

[EternalHope]

I've seen that sentiment expressed by others, including some experts, but I don't see how it's based in reality. One of the worst outbreaks is in Singapore, and it's practically on the equator.

Apparently the seasonal pattern of colds has never been fully explained. Colds show a seasonal pattern in places like Singapore, just like in Seattle.

Since SARS is related to a cold virus, we can hope it will show the same pattern. Only time will tell.

If it DOES show a seasonal pattern, perhaps we will have a fast, reliable, and cheap diagnostic test by the time the next cold season starts. That would make it much easier to isolate the people who have it.

[TaxRelief]

The company I am talking about is BIOPharma out of Oregon. They are marketing the antisense drugs.

You know, I will have to decide between buying land in a very remote part of the world and buying stock in BIOPharma or Gen whatever.

[Mr. Morals]

Well, they used to. Their economic reforms a coupla years ago privatized the health care system.

I was reading that the cost for health care is around $250 but most people make $300/year in rural areas. Therefore, they keep walking around with the disease.

I think that Europe, Canada and the US won't be too badly effected. I think the Chinese and perhaps other people might have huge death tolls due to non-existant health care.

Just wanted to give you a heads up! :-D

[Petronski]

Mutation may make it very difficult or impossible to develop a vaccine, but that still leaves the possibility of an antiviral:

There should be no suprise in this: it is just a highly prolific cold virus.

[Lijahsbubbe]

Maybe it was a seniors'Karaoke Club that they closed!(gave Gramma the hook while she was singing Tennesee Waltz)

[The Pheonix]

China has the means to combat the spread of SARS

Tjhey have the neighbour-committees that can be activated to monitor their own neighbourhoods. eg to check every member of their neighbourhood for SARS and report to the HQ

The Govt can also mobilize the PEOPLES-MILITIA to help to screen and quarantine the suspected cases China can mobilize up to 500 million militia-members to help out

[Future Useless Eater]

My analysis says the SARS death rate is much higher than widely reported.

I believe the various areas differ for two main reasons:

• Some areas have better/worse treatement and life-support facilities.
• Some countries choose to report only their more SERIOUS cases as SARS.

SARS Mortality Rates Based on World Health Organization data                 (Revised: 4/27am)
Area	Recoveries to date	Deaths to date	Recent** Death Rate		Active Cases still in Danger	Projected Future Deaths	Projected Final Mortality
Hong Kong	632	121	12.9%		774	100	14.5%
Singapore	126	21	16.1%		51	8	14.8%
China	1285	122	28.2%		1346	380	18.2%
Canada	77	18	20.7%		47	10	19.5%
World-wide	2239	293	18.5%		2304	426	14.9%
**  ( Deaths in the last 7 days) / ( Deaths + Recoveries in the last 7 days)

Trend - Active Cases Still in Danger
Date	Hong Kong	Singapore	China	Canada	World-wide
Apr 19	914	61	307	66	1616
Apr 20	893	64	497	66	1694
Apr 21 (est.)	872	66	686	66	1771
Apr 22	874	60	708	61	1783
Apr 23	831	58	968	58	2005
Apr 24	812	55	1058	58	2059
Apr 25	781	50	1209	51	2169
Apr 26	774	51	1346	47	2304
(includes new daily cases... excludes cases resolved by death or recovery)

My observations:

• Hong Kong 'might' be getting a handle on their problem.
  • It's average new cases per day is smaller than cases resolved per day.
  • It apparently has the best treatment rate.
• Singapore and Canada MAY be the close to controlling their active caseloads:
  • Canada's higher death rate MAY be because more patients truly had SARS,
    instead of something else like flu.
  • OR MAYBE Canada has poorer healthcare
  • OR MAYBE Canada is ONLY reporting it's more-severe cases.
• China appears to be terribly out of control by every measure.