Posted on 04/25/2003 7:40:41 AM PDT by ex-Texan
4,000 Quarantined in Beijing as Suspected SARS Cases Climb
EIJING, April 25 At least 4,000 Beijing residents with exposure to a contagious respiratory disease are being kept in isolation, often in their own homes, health authorities said today, and a second major hospital was put under total quarantine, with virtually no one allowed to enter or leave.
City education officials also revealed that 300 college students who had contact with infected people suffering the dangerous new disease, known as SARS, have been sequestered in a military training camp for two weeks' observation.
As Beijing began a stringent new quarantine program to try to halt the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome, pledging to isolate virus-exposed people and contaminated buildings, reported SARS cases in the capital continued to surge for the fifth straight day.
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(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
I've seen that sentiment expressed by others, including some experts, but I don't see how it's based in reality. One of the worst outbreaks is in Singapore, and it's practically on the equator.
Apparently the seasonal pattern of colds has never been fully explained. Colds show a seasonal pattern in places like Singapore, just like in Seattle.
Since SARS is related to a cold virus, we can hope it will show the same pattern. Only time will tell.
If it DOES show a seasonal pattern, perhaps we will have a fast, reliable, and cheap diagnostic test by the time the next cold season starts. That would make it much easier to isolate the people who have it.
You know, I will have to decide between buying land in a very remote part of the world and buying stock in BIOPharma or Gen whatever.
I was reading that the cost for health care is around $250 but most people make $300/year in rural areas. Therefore, they keep walking around with the disease.
I think that Europe, Canada and the US won't be too badly effected. I think the Chinese and perhaps other people might have huge death tolls due to non-existant health care.
Just wanted to give you a heads up! :-D
There should be no suprise in this: it is just a highly prolific cold virus.
I believe the various areas differ for two main reasons:
SARS Mortality Rates Based on World Health Organization data (Revised: 4/27am) |
|||||||
Area | Recoveries to date | Deaths to date | Recent** Death Rate | Active Cases still in Danger | Projected Future Deaths | Projected Final Mortality | |
Hong Kong | 632 | 121 | 12.9% | 774 | 100 | 14.5% | |
Singapore | 126 | 21 | 16.1% | 51 | 8 | 14.8% | |
China | 1285 | 122 | 28.2% | 1346 | 380 | 18.2% | |
Canada | 77 | 18 | 20.7% | 47 | 10 | 19.5% | |
World-wide | 2239 | 293 | 18.5% | 2304 | 426 | 14.9% | |
** ( Deaths in the last 7 days) / ( Deaths + Recoveries in the last 7 days) |
Trend - Active Cases Still in Danger | |||||||
Date | Hong Kong | Singapore | China | Canada | World-wide | ||
Apr 19 | 914 | 61 | 307 | 66 | 1616 | ||
Apr 20 | 893 | 64 | 497 | 66 | 1694 | ||
Apr 21 (est.) | 872 | 66 | 686 | 66 | 1771 | ||
Apr 22 | 874 | 60 | 708 | 61 | 1783 | ||
Apr 23 | 831 | 58 | 968 | 58 | 2005 | ||
Apr 24 | 812 | 55 | 1058 | 58 | 2059 | ||
Apr 25 | 781 | 50 | 1209 | 51 | 2169 | ||
Apr 26 | 774 | 51 | 1346 | 47 | 2304 | ||
(includes new daily cases... excludes cases resolved by death or recovery) |
My observations:
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