100 million cases of SARS within a year? (Excellent post from Brad Delong's website)

Brad Delong's website ^ | April 24, 2003 | Jonathan King

[Cicero]

IF it remains as contagious as it seems to be, then I would expect something on the order of the Influenza deaths at the end of the First World War. Anything from 20 million to 100 million.

It's much more dangerous than Ebola because it's airborn. To catch ebola you either need to eat monkeys or get infected blood on yourself.

One British expert said on Thursday that it may not spread all that fast. Let's hope so. And if it continues to mutate, that means a vaccine may be difficult or impossible to develop but it also may mean it will become less deadly.

The worst case scenario is very serious indeed. Backward countries would suffer most, but the US would suffer badly too.

[Brian Allen]

<< At a minimum, they should be detained in quarantine for fourteen days at the border. [Although logistics argue against this] >>

Not if they're all detained at their own borders, prior to departure for America!

America owes sick aliens nothing. They are not our problem, not our responsibility. And -- except for the nett three thousand criminal alien-arrivals per day who are already here and who are already draining our resources and are bankrupting our border states who of course we should continue joyfully starving ourselves and our own children to feed house clothe educate and medically provide for </sarcasm> -- we should never give them the opportunity to force themselves upon US!

[ido_now]

MY LYING $10.00 CALUCATOR

As per your request, I do not shout anymore.

Yes I make up everything which I post with my little $10.00 calculator.

I am sure that the CDC, WHO or the Government is beyond such things. I list below what I made up with my calculator.

It has been reported, and it seems reasonable to me, that there are 50,000 deaths each year in the USA due to Influenza (Pneumonia). If this is the case then this follows by mathematics:

1. I assume that the world’s population is 6.0 billion (probably 6.4 billion, but just increase these numbers by 6.67% if you like).
2. If the world’s population is 6.0 billion, and if the USA has a population of 280 million, than the world has a population 21.429 times larger than the USA.
3. If the 50,000 figure for the USA is correct then:
4. Daily Cases And Deaths USA (Assuming a 5% mortality rate):

Daily: Cases – 2739.720 and Deaths – 136.986
Period 30 Days: Cases – 82,191.600 and Deaths – 2,739.720
Annual: Cases – 999,997.800 and Deaths – 49,999.90 (Rounding Again)

5. Daily Cases And Deaths World ( Assuming a 5% mortality rate). Probably need to increase these numbers by a factor of at least by 2 to 5 since the rest of the world has almost no health system:

Daily: Cases – 58,709.460 and Deaths – 2,935.473
Period 30 Days: Cases 246,574.800 and Deaths - 88,064.190
Annual: Cases – 21,428,952.900 and Deaths – 1,071,477.742

6. If as you suggest that the death rate is 0.01% and not the 5% which I choose as representative, then of course the number of deaths remains the same but the number of cases increases by a factor of 500. Therefore, these would be the numbers which my $10.00 calculator reveals for the Cases for the USA and the World:

Daily Cases: USA – 1,369.860.000 World – 29, 354,730.000
Period 30 Days: USA – 41,095,800.000 World – 123,287,400.000
Annual: USA 499,998.900 World – 10,714.476,450.000

7. There is one unfortunate result if I accept your number of a 0.01% death rate. On an annual basis it would exceed the USA and World population by a factor of 1.785. That’s 78.5% more than the entire population of the USA and the World. Since I have not gotten SARS or Pneumonia recently, a lot of people are in “Deep Do-Do” if you are correct. In fact they can look forward to getting sick with this “stuff” a number of times, if my calculator is correct.

8. My suggestion to you all is to see how long you all can hold you breath.

9. Cheer-e-oh, you all.

[TaxRelief]

impt. key questions remain including how long "recovered" individuals shed virus (if they do),

They have had difficulty obtaining virus swabs >72h after onset. Stool cultures may be useful for up to 5d from onset.

how significant is the parallel cockroach vector system, and what is the longest time of incubation (prob. > 10d).

The probability that the incubation period >10d, is I believe, 0, using specifically SARS data. However, when most viruses hit larger groups there are nearly always silent carriers or super defence systems that hold of infection for longer periods.
"Parallel roach vector system" has pretty much been ruled out because it cannot deliver adequate dose of virus.

[riri]

TaxRelief, in the beginning of all this you seemed skeptical that this was a large threat. Have you changed your outlook?

[TaxRelief]

It is NOT airborne (aerosal). You have to be globbed on, literally, to get sick. Or you have to touch an infected surface and then put your mucky fingers into your nose, your mouth or your eyes.

[Joe Hadenuf]

As jumbo jets are lined up from here to Asia, on approach to an airport near you....

American's refuse to wake up to the open border, immigration time bomb....

[riri]

But if it stays "alive" on surfaces for up to 24 hours, that certainly makes the problem worse. Especially, if you have small children. If this comes here in full force, as a mother of a two and five year old, I will have no choice but to stay home, indefinitely.

[ladyjane]

...the US would suffer badly too...

Absolutely. Even if not one US citizen gets the disease it will have a major impact. Productivity is down, our buyers aren't going over there, and retailers are beginning to worry plenty. Imagine you are a manager at Walmart. What is going to be on your shelves this September? You know that fan belt you need for your Honda or water pump you need for your Toyota? What do you think the backlog is in the supply warehouses?

[TaxRelief]

TaxRelief, in the beginning of all this you seemed skeptical that this was a large threat. Have you changed your outlook?

No, I have not. Mathematically, looking at US cases only, there is no cause for concern.

Medically, there is some cause for mild concern. Watch for SARS the way you watch for Flu, or hepatitus, or an e-coli outbreak.

Ideallogically, this SARS panic in a conservative forum is a serious cause for concern. It is a threat to conservatism. A sense of victimology, by definition, creates liberalism. There is too much belief that this is the responsibility of our government and the UN. Clearly, several liberals (victimologists) have latched on to the SARS threads as a way to perpetuate their "trust the government" dogma.

Thanks for asking!

[TaxRelief]

The world has changed dramatically in the last 10 years. Take freepers for instance, we hug each other, punch each other, pat each other on the back, sweet talk each other and yell at each other all from the comfort (and isolation) of our homes.

There have been some great business articles about all the "virtual" wholesale buying that is taking place, this year. Some pointed out some of the advantages, language translation software, for example. It may take a year to smooth out, but my guess is that a lot of buying trips have been (a) out of habit and (b) out of a desire to see the world.

[Axenolith]

It has been reported, and it seems reasonable to me, that there are 50,000 deaths each year in the USA due to Influenza (Pneumonia). If this is the case then this follows by mathematics:

Influenza and Pneumonia are not the same. The former frequently leads to the latter in the case of bacteriological pneumonia. While influenza and some types of pneumonia are viral, they are different pathogens.

Your calculations don't take into account the "s" curve nature of infection rates as they peak over a broad population, and they assume that people can contract the same disease twice. After peaking, the infection rate will drop off due to the scarcity of previously uninfected victims among the population pool and the decreasing probability of these uninfected pool members contacting each other...

[Axenolith]

If it comes here in full force, you'd have to stay in until a vaccine made its way through the pipeline and that would be a LONG time. Better to make sure the little ones are pumped full of vitamin C, chicken soup, and have inherited your impeccable (as are all Freepers :)) hygeine practices.

[Axenolith]

What do you think the backlog is in the supply warehouses?

Very little, due to "just in time" supply chains...

[Jim Noble]

>>Not if they're all detained at their own borders, prior to departure for America! <<

That was the point of my original post.

It would be easier, cleaner, and safer to terminate landing rights for any aircraft originating in or transiting Hong Kong, China, Singapore, Vietnam, or Canada.

Really.

We could do this today, no problem, and then we would have the leisure to watch the rest of the world problem solve the issues of hospital infection control, isolation, and quarantine.

It is irrational to counsel travellers to reconsider going to SARS hot zones while we have tens of thousands arriving every day.

[Judith Anne]

It is NOT airborne (aerosal). You have to be globbed on, literally, to get sick. Or you have to touch an infected surface and then put your mucky fingers into your nose, your mouth or your eyes."

Actually, on this I think you are quite mistaken. And in addition to aerosol spread by coughing, the virus is shed in urine, and feces.

[TaxRelief]

Let's get exact: large droplet transmission (picture it) is not the same as aerosal (fine droplet transmission). But I know you know this...

[Judith Anne]

And you say that there is no aerosol transmission?

[Betty Jo]

Heres a SARS Flag....instead of a "Dont Tread On Me",how about a .."Dont breath on me, dont snot on me, dont pis* on me,dont sh** on me,and what ever you do, dont s*rew with me!"

[ido_now]

Yes you are right Influenza and Pneumonia are not the same.

The difference is like the difference between frozen and fresh orange juice.

I would never drink frozen when I could get fresh.