SARS in the Chinese countryside

Thank you for the report.

Are you concerned about the authorities taking action because of your internet conversations about SARS?

I hope you get out okay.

The NIH has gene sequenced the virus and it is a simple Coronavirus. That is the common cold virus. It mutates constantly and there are hundreds of new variants out of China every year. This time we just got a really deadly one.

Not every patient that has SARS has been shown to have the coronavirus, according to Canada, yet we keep saying SARS is caused by the coronavirus. My question is do we really know what it is yet, why do we keep saying it is this virus if not all SARS patients have it?

This article, if anything, paints a grimmer picture of what's happening today in rural China.

The unchecked spread in rural China

Thanks very much for your report. Please be very cautious about posting here if there is any way the authorities can trace it back to you. Jim Robinson can be trusted absolutely, but the Chinese may have other means of tracing--I'm not enough of a technician to know if this is possible or not. And you are dealing with highly classified information, from their point of view.

I've been pointing out on other threads that population statistics, death rates, and other demographic information are state secrets in Communist countries. Also, as your post suggests, the leadership only knows what is reported up the chain of command, and that is unlikely to be accurate.

Your story about hygiene reminds me of a time when our car broke down in rural Austria back in 1975. A farm woman kindly took us in, fed us dinner, and gave us a place to sleep. Her living quarters were over the cow barn, and I couldn't help noticing that she brought the food to the table barefoot, and still had cow manure smeared up to her knees. So China is simply typical of a rural society, and probably more advanced than some.

Thanks for the FReeplance reporting, Ma Li. It's nice to know what's happening on the ground there. You're definitely right about the levels of sanitation over there; I remember people spitting on the floor in the middle of resteraunts and small children defecating in the streets.

I also have zero faith in the rural Chinese medical system to handle SARS. For those of you that don't know, most travel in China city to city is by train. Those trains are packed like sardines and travel for hours or days. Should an infected person hop on a train and pass it on to the others, you could see outbreaks at each of the train's stops, many of which are isolated and helpless.

It's even worse than airplanes, because the trains are constantly stopping, and the sanitation on board is awful. The bathroom is a hole in the bottom of the train you squat over while the train is moving. There is no way they can quarantine entire cities without cutting the rail transit, and those rails keep the country connected. Even their military depends on the railways to move troops and equipment.

Thank you for this excellent article.

MY LYING $10.00 CALUCATOR

As per your request, I do not shout anymore.

Yes I make up everything which I post with my little $10.00 calculator.

I am sure that the CDC, WHO or the Government is beyond such things. I list below what I made up with my calculator.

It has been reported, and it seems reasonable to me, that there are 50,000 deaths each year in the USA due to Influenza (Pneumonia). If this is the case then this follows by mathematics:

1. I assume that the world’s population is 6.0 billion (probably 6.4 billion, but just increase these numbers by 6.67% if you like).
2. If the world’s population is 6.0 billion, and if the USA has a population of 280 million, than the world has a population 21.429 times larger than the USA.
3. If the 50,000 figure for the USA is correct then:
4. Daily Cases And Deaths USA (Assuming a 5% mortality rate):

Daily: Cases – 2739.720 and Deaths – 136.986
Period 30 Days: Cases – 82,191.600 and Deaths – 2,739.720
Annual: Cases – 999,997.800 and Deaths – 49,999.90 (Rounding Again)

5. Daily Cases And Deaths World ( Assuming a 5% mortality rate). Probably need to increase these numbers by a factor of at least by 2 to 5 since the rest of the world has almost no health system:

Daily: Cases – 58,709.460 and Deaths – 2,935.473
Period 30 Days: Cases 246,574.800 and Deaths - 88,064.190
Annual: Cases – 21,428,952.900 and Deaths – 1,071,477.742

6. If as you suggest that the death rate is 0.01% and not the 5% which I choose as representative, then of course the number of deaths remains the same but the number of cases increases by a factor of 500. Therefore, these would be the numbers which my $10.00 calculator reveals for the Cases for the USA and the World:

Daily Cases: USA – 1,369.860.000 World – 29, 354,730.000
Period 30 Days: USA – 41,095,800.000 World – 123,287,400.000
Annual: USA 499,998.900 World – 10,714.476,450.000

7. There is one unfortunate result if I accept your number of a 0.01% death rate. On an annual basis it would exceed the USA and World population by a factor of 1.785. That’s 78.5% more than the entire population of the USA and the World. Since I have not gotten SARS or Pneumonia recently, a lot of people are in “Deep Do-Do” if you are correct. In fact they can look forward to getting sick with this “stuff” a number of times, if my calculator is correct.

8. My suggestion to you all is to see how long you all can hold you breath.

9. Cheer-e-oh, you all.

Freeper zook is giving us some interesting posts at:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/899870/posts

Zook is in Taipei, where a sister-in-law is a nurse at Hoping Municipal Hospital:

"A government official has warned everyone not to post 'rumors"'on the Internet under threat of fine or other punishment. Not sure what a 'rumor' is. Perhaps I'm exposing myself to risk by posting this. Under law, I suppose I should be under quarantine because I am 'family' of a hospital staff member and I was staying at her house (albeit for one day before she reported back). But I'll remain a 'fugative.' "

Thanks I was referencing his post in mine

"This has been thouroughly debunked weeks ago.

The NIH has gene sequenced the virus and it is a simple Coronavirus. That is the common cold virus. It mutates constantly and there are hundreds of new variants out of China every year. This time we just got a really deadly one."

I was unaware of this information, thanks for adding cold hard facts.

Bump...