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SARS in the Chinese countryside

Posted on 04/26/2003 7:01:51 AM PDT by Ma Li

I'm an American living in the countryside of China. I've been in this country for four years now.

I've also lived in Beijing, Shenyang and Shenzhen. I have friends, foreign and Chinese, all over the country, who have also clued me in to the situation where they are. I apologize for the length of this, but hope it is will be informative.

I've been asked by several freepers to start a separate thread on the situation in China, outside of the well known places like Shanghai, Hong Kong and Beijing. I've been posting comments on this subject for a while now, and you can find them through my screen name, I'm sure. So, here goes:

HUBEI PROVINCE

The town I live in is not far from Wuhan, in Hubei province. The official word is that there are no cases in Hubei, except a couple in the capital, Wuhan. Information is tight, and as many of you have probably guessed, despite official claims of forthrightness, the central government still considers this a matter of internal security, and is still reluctant to reveal all of the truth. As for this province, my friends in the hospitals here in this city have informed me they definitely have cases of SARS. In an even smaller village about an hour from here, a class of high school seniors volunteered that there were "no SARS cases in their class."

"That's great, but what about in the rest of the school?"

"Um," they replied, "maybe."

The school's administration, however, has consistently told people they will close the school if even one case shows up. Everywhere, people are wearing masks, and everywhere they are disinfecting.

What is disinfecting? Key to understanding this is to understand two things about Chinese society: their ideas of germs and their ideas about work. ALthough the Chinese are clean, they are clean according to the understanding they have. In the countryside--almost everywhere, and even somewhat in the big cities--they do not understand germs very well. They believe things are clean when rinsed with water, never cover their mouths when coughing or sneezing, spit and blow their nose into public places and all manner of similar things. So, trying get them to understand these new ideas about cleanliness is difficult, to say the least, and especially among the older folks.

The second part--their ideas about work--also play into this. Most large entities or businesses hire far more people then are really essential to the operation of that business. This is because there are so many people--to provide enough jobs there have to be a lot of "make-work" jobs. IN Beijing, for example, in order to benefit smaller provinces, all schools and businesses are required to hire 24's worth hour guards from poor provinces and the countryside. Those guards work many hours a day, live in a shack on the business property, have their meals provided at the canteen, along with their uniform, and anywhere from 1-10RMB a day. (That's about $.12 to $1.24). It's not much, but then, many of these folks do no actual work. So, at a business of any kind you will find not only guards, but a separate person for each job--there is no "secretary" that does many things. There is one man who only makes copies. Another that only types headings on papers. Another that only drives the company car, etc.

So, when you hear that everything is being "disinfected," you have to bear in mind that what is happening is that people who normal spent the vast majority of the working day either smoking, sleeping, chatting or reading the newspaper, are now being ordered to spend all day disinfecting things. HUman nature being what it is, who would want to increase their work load 100% for 0% increase in pay? The result is a haphazd job in many places. Not knowing much about hygiene, many "disinfectors" only spray down the floors of a place with bleach water. They don't wipe anytthing, they don't spray doors, windows that are opened and closed, handles, faucets or knobs. Unless people are licking the floors with their tongues, the current method of disinfecting in this area is pretty much useless. I've heard similar comments from many other foreign friends throughout the country.

In Wuhan, there are one or two admitted cases, but the situation is almost assuredly much worse. Aty least one of the universities has stopped classes for now, and many people are leaving the city. A Chinese friend of mine who studies there says that she knows 40 people have died there from SARS. Of course, that might be panic on her part, and where there is little information, people will always assume the worst because that's the only way to keep safe. This has caused a lot of people to leave Wuhan for their surrounding countryside, ensuriing that there will be more spread.

Foreigners here in this province are not being specifically urged to go, but are being given every help if they wish to do so.

LIAONING PROVINCE:

In Dalian, the vacation retreat for China's elite, a friend working at a school there has let me know the situation at that college. The students claim there are cases at that very school, and have many of them stopped coming to class. Those who do are masked and ready. However, the school officials are telling their foreign teachers that not only are their no cases at the school, but not even any in the whole province. At the same time, constant disinfection is being done on the campus, and they are also being told they are not allowed to leave the school unaccompanied, to travel anywhere in China, or to have guests in their homes. They are also being told they are not free to go home--and that they will be accused of breach of contract if they try.

One of the foreign teachers has a relative back home is quite ill with cancer. The teacher had planned to go home for the May 1 holiday and see him. When the holiday was cancelled, this teacher continued with the plan--the tickets were already bought. The teacher was called in and the school tried to force the teacher to remain in China and teach through the holiday. When the teacher put up a big enough stink, they relented, but saved face by calling the teacher into the president's office, specially, so that he could inform them that they, "in their kindness, had decided that the teacher would be allowed to go home."

This is just one example of how a "policy" handed down by the central government, is ignored, mutated, accepted or turned to personal benefit by the different provincial and local governments and businesses. Down in my province, where there "is no SARS" the students and everyone has holiday from May 1 to May 5, regardless of the directive, because that is what people want. In Liaoning, which also "has no SARS," this school is working straight through, without even one day off on May 1, undoubtedly so they can get more work out of their teachers and more money from their students. (private schools here are a real racket).

GUANG DONG PROVINCE

I have friends working in a small city there. They report that where they are there is almost no information concerning what is going on, and that very few wear masks. The next city over has been quarantined (the entire city). But, despite all that has happened, people in the smaller countryside areas seem largely unaware of SARS and its potential

An American group is still planning to continue their summer teaching program in this city. They'll be bringing 18-22 year old college students to Beijing, and then to Guang Dong for about 4 weeks. Nothing we can say will convince them of the idiocy of this plan. They are determined, and we can only hope that the US will stop flights to China for a time.

HEBEI PROVINCE

There is a small village here, called Xuan Hua. If you look for it on the map, you probably can't find it. It is a couple hours from Beijing. It's also home to a lot of the Falun Gong re-education camps. Although there are very few people there, and very little interaction, relatively, with the "outside world," there are 6 cases that my friends know of, personally. There really are no hospitals here--just clinics. What is happening with these patients, what hope they have. Who knows?


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: china; sars
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To: Ma Li
Thank you for the report.

Are you concerned about the authorities taking action because of your internet conversations about SARS?

I hope you get out okay.

21 posted on 04/26/2003 10:03:32 AM PDT by blam
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To: Servant of the Nine
The NIH has gene sequenced the virus and it is a simple Coronavirus. That is the common cold virus. It mutates constantly and there are hundreds of new variants out of China every year. This time we just got a really deadly one.

Not every patient that has SARS has been shown to have the coronavirus, according to Canada, yet we keep saying SARS is caused by the coronavirus. My question is do we really know what it is yet, why do we keep saying it is this virus if not all SARS patients have it?

22 posted on 04/26/2003 10:27:27 AM PDT by Lady Heron
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To: EternalHope
This article, if anything, paints a grimmer picture of what's happening today in rural China.

The unchecked spread in rural China

23 posted on 04/26/2003 10:40:26 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Ma Li
Thanks very much for your report. Please be very cautious about posting here if there is any way the authorities can trace it back to you. Jim Robinson can be trusted absolutely, but the Chinese may have other means of tracing--I'm not enough of a technician to know if this is possible or not. And you are dealing with highly classified information, from their point of view.

I've been pointing out on other threads that population statistics, death rates, and other demographic information are state secrets in Communist countries. Also, as your post suggests, the leadership only knows what is reported up the chain of command, and that is unlikely to be accurate.

Your story about hygiene reminds me of a time when our car broke down in rural Austria back in 1975. A farm woman kindly took us in, fed us dinner, and gave us a place to sleep. Her living quarters were over the cow barn, and I couldn't help noticing that she brought the food to the table barefoot, and still had cow manure smeared up to her knees. So China is simply typical of a rural society, and probably more advanced than some.
24 posted on 04/26/2003 10:42:09 AM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: Ma Li
Thanks for the FReeplance reporting, Ma Li. It's nice to know what's happening on the ground there. You're definitely right about the levels of sanitation over there; I remember people spitting on the floor in the middle of resteraunts and small children defecating in the streets.

I also have zero faith in the rural Chinese medical system to handle SARS. For those of you that don't know, most travel in China city to city is by train. Those trains are packed like sardines and travel for hours or days. Should an infected person hop on a train and pass it on to the others, you could see outbreaks at each of the train's stops, many of which are isolated and helpless.

It's even worse than airplanes, because the trains are constantly stopping, and the sanitation on board is awful. The bathroom is a hole in the bottom of the train you squat over while the train is moving. There is no way they can quarantine entire cities without cutting the rail transit, and those rails keep the country connected. Even their military depends on the railways to move troops and equipment.

25 posted on 04/26/2003 11:03:05 AM PDT by Steel Wolf (Like water in a bucket.... calm but deadly...)
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To: Ma Li
Thank you for this excellent article.
26 posted on 04/26/2003 11:27:47 AM PDT by gcruse
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To: Ma Li
MY LYING $10.00 CALUCATOR

As per your request, I do not shout anymore.

Yes I make up everything which I post with my little $10.00 calculator.

I am sure that the CDC, WHO or the Government is beyond such things. I list below what I made up with my calculator.

It has been reported, and it seems reasonable to me, that there are 50,000 deaths each year in the USA due to Influenza (Pneumonia). If this is the case then this follows by mathematics:

1. I assume that the world’s population is 6.0 billion (probably 6.4 billion, but just increase these numbers by 6.67% if you like).
2. If the world’s population is 6.0 billion, and if the USA has a population of 280 million, than the world has a population 21.429 times larger than the USA.
3. If the 50,000 figure for the USA is correct then:
4. Daily Cases And Deaths USA (Assuming a 5% mortality rate):

Daily: Cases – 2739.720 and Deaths – 136.986
Period 30 Days: Cases – 82,191.600 and Deaths – 2,739.720
Annual: Cases – 999,997.800 and Deaths – 49,999.90 (Rounding Again)

5. Daily Cases And Deaths World ( Assuming a 5% mortality rate). Probably need to increase these numbers by a factor of at least by 2 to 5 since the rest of the world has almost no health system:

Daily: Cases – 58,709.460 and Deaths – 2,935.473
Period 30 Days: Cases 246,574.800 and Deaths - 88,064.190
Annual: Cases – 21,428,952.900 and Deaths – 1,071,477.742

6. If as you suggest that the death rate is 0.01% and not the 5% which I choose as representative, then of course the number of deaths remains the same but the number of cases increases by a factor of 500. Therefore, these would be the numbers which my $10.00 calculator reveals for the Cases for the USA and the World:

Daily Cases: USA – 1,369.860.000 World – 29, 354,730.000
Period 30 Days: USA – 41,095,800.000 World – 123,287,400.000
Annual: USA 499,998.900 World – 10,714.476,450.000

7. There is one unfortunate result if I accept your number of a 0.01% death rate. On an annual basis it would exceed the USA and World population by a factor of 1.785. That’s 78.5% more than the entire population of the USA and the World. Since I have not gotten SARS or Pneumonia recently, a lot of people are in “Deep Do-Do” if you are correct. In fact they can look forward to getting sick with this “stuff” a number of times, if my calculator is correct.

8. My suggestion to you all is to see how long you all can hold you breath.

9. Cheer-e-oh, you all.

27 posted on 04/26/2003 12:11:14 PM PDT by ido_now
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To: Ma Li
MY LYING $10.00 CALUCATOR

As per your request, I do not shout anymore.

Yes I make up everything which I post with my little $10.00 calculator.

I am sure that the CDC, WHO or the Government is beyond such things. I list below what I made up with my calculator.

It has been reported, and it seems reasonable to me, that there are 50,000 deaths each year in the USA due to Influenza (Pneumonia). If this is the case then this follows by mathematics:

1. I assume that the world’s population is 6.0 billion (probably 6.4 billion, but just increase these numbers by 6.67% if you like).
2. If the world’s population is 6.0 billion, and if the USA has a population of 280 million, than the world has a population 21.429 times larger than the USA.
3. If the 50,000 figure for the USA is correct then:
4. Daily Cases And Deaths USA (Assuming a 5% mortality rate):

Daily: Cases – 2739.720 and Deaths – 136.986
Period 30 Days: Cases – 82,191.600 and Deaths – 2,739.720
Annual: Cases – 999,997.800 and Deaths – 49,999.90 (Rounding Again)

5. Daily Cases And Deaths World ( Assuming a 5% mortality rate). Probably need to increase these numbers by a factor of at least by 2 to 5 since the rest of the world has almost no health system:

Daily: Cases – 58,709.460 and Deaths – 2,935.473
Period 30 Days: Cases 246,574.800 and Deaths - 88,064.190
Annual: Cases – 21,428,952.900 and Deaths – 1,071,477.742

6. If as you suggest that the death rate is 0.01% and not the 5% which I choose as representative, then of course the number of deaths remains the same but the number of cases increases by a factor of 500. Therefore, these would be the numbers which my $10.00 calculator reveals for the Cases for the USA and the World:

Daily Cases: USA – 1,369.860.000 World – 29, 354,730.000
Period 30 Days: USA – 41,095,800.000 World – 123,287,400.000
Annual: USA 499,998.900 World – 10,714.476,450.000

7. There is one unfortunate result if I accept your number of a 0.01% death rate. On an annual basis it would exceed the USA and World population by a factor of 1.785. That’s 78.5% more than the entire population of the USA and the World. Since I have not gotten SARS or Pneumonia recently, a lot of people are in “Deep Do-Do” if you are correct. In fact they can look forward to getting sick with this “stuff” a number of times, if my calculator is correct.

8. My suggestion to you all is to see how long you all can hold you breath.

9. Cheer-e-oh, you all.

28 posted on 04/26/2003 12:12:35 PM PDT by ido_now
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To: Nov3
Freeper zook is giving us some interesting posts at:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/899870/posts

Zook is in Taipei, where a sister-in-law is a nurse at Hoping Municipal Hospital:

"A government official has warned everyone not to post 'rumors"'on the Internet under threat of fine or other punishment. Not sure what a 'rumor' is. Perhaps I'm exposing myself to risk by posting this. Under law, I suppose I should be under quarantine because I am 'family' of a hospital staff member and I was staying at her house (albeit for one day before she reported back). But I'll remain a 'fugative.' "
29 posted on 04/26/2003 12:52:42 PM PDT by StayAt HomeMother
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To: StayAt HomeMother
Thanks I was referencing his post in mine
30 posted on 04/26/2003 12:55:09 PM PDT by Nov3
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To: Servant of the Nine
"This has been thouroughly debunked weeks ago.

The NIH has gene sequenced the virus and it is a simple Coronavirus. That is the common cold virus. It mutates constantly and there are hundreds of new variants out of China every year. This time we just got a really deadly one."

I was unaware of this information, thanks for adding cold hard facts.

31 posted on 04/28/2003 6:17:49 AM PDT by TominPA (Call me a soldier, retired is optional......)
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To: Ma Li
Bump...
32 posted on 04/29/2003 11:59:54 PM PDT by Prince Charles
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