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More SARS deaths as expert warns of higher mortality rate
Australian Broadcasting. ^
| April 27, 2003
Posted on 04/26/2003 7:26:57 PM PDT by Lessismore
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To: Lessismore
Let's see.. If the mortality rate is 25%, and I have two sons and an ex, then what am I hoping for??
LOL!
2
posted on
04/26/2003 7:32:50 PM PDT
by
a_Turk
(Lookout, lookout, the candy man..)
To: a_Turk
If the mortality rate is 25%, then the probability that none of you will die is .75 x .75 x .75 x .75 = .32 or 32%.
The probability that one or more of you will die is 68%.
To: Lessismore
Can't remember where I read it or how true it is but it said for some reason Americans overall appear to be somewhat resistant to this bug, that possibly it's already been here in some form and people in this country have built up an immunity to its effects.
Hope that story's true. I also hope they come up with a treatment pretty quick, it has the potential to kill millions the way it's mutating.
Comment #5 Removed by Moderator
To: jeepit
This is The Stand coming to life! And if this virus is man-made, guess who'll be getting the blame?
You can expect to see a thousand books from the conspiracy nut cases very soon for that answer.
To: Reaganwuzthebest
"... that possibly it's already been here in some form and people in this country have built up an immunity to its effects." Yes it has. The government has been spreading a weak form of it across the country via condensation trails from aircraft. Now that we have been protected the full virus has been used as a weapon against china.
Hey, it's as good a theory as anything else...
To: TheLooseThread
OHHHH my goddddd!!! Is this true?!!?
To: Reaganwuzthebest
Osama Bin Laden said in an Arabic TV interview, 2001, "after I had destroyed the USA, I will destroy China, the World's second greatest power...."
So, don't write of Al-Queda usng bio-weapons, totally off yet....
Al-Queda may be doing a dry run on China, with US as the next target......
Oh, dear, I must stop all these stupid medication....
To: Lessismore
My analysis says the SARS death rate is much higher than widely reported.
I believe the various areas differ for two main reasons:
- Some areas have better/worse treatement and life-support facilities.
- Some countries choose to report only their more SERIOUS cases as SARS.
SARS Mortality Rates Based on World Health Organization data (Revised: 4/27am) |
Area |
Recoveries to date |
Deaths to date |
Recent** Death Rate |
|
Active Cases still in Danger |
Projected Future Deaths |
Projected Final Mortality |
Hong Kong |
632 |
121 |
12.9% |
|
774 |
100 |
14.5% |
Singapore |
126 |
21 |
16.1% |
|
51 |
8 |
14.8% |
China |
1285 |
122 |
28.2% |
|
1346 |
380 |
18.2% |
Canada |
77 |
18 |
20.7% |
|
47 |
10 |
19.5% |
World-wide |
2239 |
293 |
18.5% |
|
2304 |
426 |
14.9% |
** ( Deaths in the last 7 days) / ( Deaths + Recoveries in the last 7 days) |
Trend - Active Cases Still in Danger |
Date |
Hong Kong |
Singapore |
China |
Canada |
World-wide |
Apr 19 |
914 |
61 |
307 |
66 |
1616 |
Apr 20 |
893 |
64 |
497 |
66 |
1694 |
Apr 21 (est.) |
872 |
66 |
686 |
66 |
1771 |
Apr 22 |
874 |
60 |
708 |
61 |
1783 |
Apr 23 |
831 |
58 |
968 |
58 |
2005 |
Apr 24 |
812 |
55 |
1058 |
58 |
2059 |
Apr 25 |
781 |
50 |
1209 |
51 |
2169 |
Apr 26 |
774 |
51 |
1346 |
47 |
2304 |
(includes new daily cases... excludes cases resolved by death or recovery) |
My observations:
- Hong Kong 'might' be getting a handle on their problem.
- It's average new cases per day is smaller than cases resolved per day.
- It apparently has the best treatment rate.
- Singapore and Canada MAY be the close to controlling their active caseloads:
- Canada's higher death rate MAY be because more patients truly had SARS,
instead of something else like flu. - OR MAYBE Canada has poorer healthcare
- OR MAYBE Canada is ONLY reporting it's more-severe cases.
- China appears to be terribly out of control by every measure.
To: FL_engineer
yes, understandably so, HongKong and Singapore are tiny islands, with piddling 3-6 million people, but China is a continental landmass with 1.3 billion people
are we talking apples and oranges, here
To: FL_engineer
I've become a bit suspicious of Hong Kong's figures. Until April 15, they each day listed new admissions to the hospitals. Since that day they have listed "patients confirmed to have atypical pneumonia following admission to public hospitals earlier". Then two days ago they began to list "suspected cases" who were already hospitalized, but not carried in the confirmed list. They do not say when they began admitting these "suspects". Nor do they state whether their number of "suspects" given each day is a total or the number of new admissions. I'm now carrying the suspects in my
chart, in a separate column, and assuming that they are new admissions for each day.
12
posted on
04/27/2003 2:53:34 AM PDT
by
per loin
To: FL_engineer
Excellent analysis. Using the last 7 days data may result in a mortality estimate that is a little high, since the "recoveries" may generally have an earlier date of onset than the "deaths". If the number of new cases per day is increasing, the earlier cohorts to which the recoveries belong would be smaller than the later cohorts to which the deaths belong. But for Singapore and Hong Kong, the new cases have been flat or declining for the last 2-3 weeks, so those estimates may be pretty accurate.
To: per loin; aristeides; blam; CathyRyan; Betty Jo; Domestic Church; Prince Charles
Good morning. Fox's doctor was on this morning, Dr. Rosenfeld--is that his name?--and he was saying the same things that we've concluded:
No accurate test
No effective treatment
Unknown if patients can get it more than once
Serious matter of concern
To: The Pheonix
So, don't write of Al-Queda usng bio-weapons, totally off yet.... If the virus is man-made, Al-Queda would be my first suspect, with possibly even the Chinese government manufacturing it as a weapon, accidently or purposely?? getting out into the general public.
But I give it a month or two before we start hearing in the media about conspiracies the CIA is involved. They always get the blame for all the world's problems.
To: Lessismore
Man, this story just keepsagettin worser and worser.
To: Reaganwuzthebest
Yes, many other people suspect the Al-Queda as a possible culprit as well
There are several newspapers articles that said that the World's Islamic terrorist groups are looking and studying the SARS situation with great interest.
International TERRORISM is starting to get the wrong ideas....unfortunately for the rest of Mnkind
To: TheLooseThread
The government has been spreading a weak form of it across the country via condensation trails from aircraft. In about a month that's exactly what first left-wing magazines, then CNN and NPR will be passing off as the truth. I'd bet the farm on it.
To: Lessismore
The probability that one or more of you will die is 68%. That would only be if you actually got the disease... LOL! Otherwise, if it were 68% for all of us the environmentalists would be thrilled as it would help get the world population down to 1 billion where they think it should be!!!
To: Kay Ludlow
That would only be if you actually got the disease... LOL! I was assuming a household of 4, living together, who all came down with the disease and each had a probability of 25% of dying from it.
In reality, there is a pretty good chance that if one person in a family living together gets SARS, the other ones will get it as well. It is like flu or measles or chicken pox in that regard. However, it is true that not all would come down.
Age has a big impact as well. If it is a pair of parents in their 30s with two small children, the children are very likely to survive and the parents have only a 1 or 2 percent chance of dying, assuming they aren't immunosupressed or have other medical conditions.
If it is adult children (50s) living with aged parents (70s or 80s), the odds are pretty good that both aged parents die and that at least one of the children dies as well.
Loosed in a senior citizen's home, SARS would empty the place.
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