Sabato's Crystal Ball in '04: Bush 278 Electoral Votes, Democrat 260...

Center For Politics ^

[Recovering_Democrat]

Beltway Boys Fred Barnes and Mort Kondracki had Larry Sabato on their show this weekend. He presented this projected Electoral Map for 2004. What do you think? Is he right? Sabato did say if the election were held today, Bush would probably get 330 Electoral votes. He thinks this is what it'll look like in November of '04, though. Any thoughts?

[Torie]

Bush hasn't made much progress with blacks in NC has he? :(

[Wolfstar]

Sabato has Bush LOSING to every one of these clowns EXCEPT for John F. Kerry...

Doesn't make any sense. Are you sure you got the info right? If so, Sabato doesn't know his own tush from a hole in the ground.

At this early stage, the three Dem candidates with the best shot at the nomination are Dean (angry grassroots Left), Kerry (war record & money) and Gephardt (unions). Edwards and Graham have not gotten any traction at all in the early going, and Lieberman seems to be lagging in the fund-raising area. If their chances are slim against their own fellow Dems, what chance do they have against the President?

[Recovering_Democrat]

Diddle, how did you post the pic? I tried to do it, but it wouldn't work for me? What did I do wrong?

[nwrep]

Does anybody really believe that John Edwards could beat Bush?

I believe it can happen. Politics is very fickle, particularly after what we saw in 2000. One bad debate can sink Bush (remember Ford?).

I have accepted the fact that it is going to be a close election, not as close as 2000, but close. That is why I laugh when I see freepers ignorantly high-fiving each other every week on Bush's meaningless poll numbers on job approval this early.

I can guarantee you one thing. If you are one of those Freepers who thinks Bush has 6 more years left, you will be stunned at the ferocity of campaigning and dirty tricks you will see next year from the Dems. Any talk of "landslides" now is irresponsible. We have to act like it is going to be a long fight.

Do not forget, despite the high approval ratings, Bush's re-elect numbers are remarkably soft. People have already forgotten more people voted for Nader/Gore than for Bush. I will be shocked if Bush carries more than 35-36 states, and Sabato could well be right.

[Howlin]

Nope, but neither has Edwards.

[Diddle E. Squat]

I'm not sure why, but when you cut and paste the address, it won't post. Instead right-click and go to 'properties', and cut and paste the address there(it is different).

[edwin hubble]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_college-fig1.htm"

His Red/Blue map for 2004 shows the same 'close' states as 2000, but New Hampshire leaning Republican.

Bush wins against a generic "Democratic nominee" 278 to 260.

Larry was in my wife's class at UVa and in my sister's high school class. He was campaign manager for Virginia Governor candidate Henry Howell (liberal democrat) in the 1970's.

He has strong democratic roots, but is surprisingly objective in his analyis.

[Pubbie]

This projection is nuts.

Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Oregon should go R next year, which will give Bush over 315 EVs.

I would put Michigan as a tossup/leaning dem. It would be hard to win Michigan but not impossible, not like winning Kalifornia!

[TomGuy]

If things stay as they are right now, it is going to be a closer election than most think--depending on which Dem candidate emerges.

The economy has been "recovering" since the spring of 2000, but layoffs continue, the stock market has been bouncing up and down, and things aren't all rosy in the pocketbooks. Like it or not, people vote based on their pocketbooks.

Events could change drastically either for or against GWB on either economic or terrorism front. More economic instability and GWB may be out. Another significant terrorist attack could help or hurt GWB, depending on where, how, etc. If it is over the open borders, GWB is out, because the opposition will say he didn't secure the borders. If it were something perceived as unstoppable surprise, GWB could be helped in the polls, depending on his response.

The "well knowns" on the Dem side don't stand much of a chance. Dean is the most "outsider" of the lot. Don't discount him. The last 2 Dem Presidents have been governors; the last 2 Pub Presidents have been governors.

Don't count Hillary out. She is lurking, learing, waiting for a perceivable change. She cannot afford to let another Dem possibly win the Presidence--that would put her out until 2012 and she can't wait that long. She will connive behind the scenes, and if there is any perceived weakness in GWB's reelection, Hillary will maneuver herself to be the one sworn in as President. Don't ever underestimate her.

[Diddle E. Squat]

Hmmm, Pennsylvania could be the lock on the election if Cheney steps down and Santorum takes his place.

I wouldn't analyze that from only a single perspective...

[marajade]

Edwards isn't much better than an ambulance chaser... Give me a break...

[Republican Wildcat]

After seeing those individual breakdowns, I give this guy little credibility. Lieberman magically can carry Florida...Edwards, very unpopular, winning North Carolina. Baloney.

[Dan from Michigan]

Generic Map

I move Michigan and Minnesota from probable dem to tossup(dem). I consider both of them true tossups, but that wasn't what Sabato used.
Other than that I agree on that one.

Lieberman is the toughest for me to predict. He has a conservative reputation, and liberals hate him like some of us hate John McStain. I think he'll be offed in the primary. He has Lieberman winning with 287. I don't know what would happen with him. I expect a strong green candidate with Lieberman taking some of the vote.

Graham 287 as well. I think he'll be tough if he gets off the ground.

Gephart is abrasive which helps. Geography he hurts. He puts Missouri in play, and locks up West VA and Michigan. But will Gephart play well in white collar suburbia? Soccer moms? I don't think he can. He'll be tough though.

I don't think Edwards can pull it off. He's scary, but beatable. He IS a trial lawyer, which puts Michigan in play(Ask Fieger). I can't see him taking NC as well like Sabato has. Why? He's not been there long enough. He'll lose, but a close one.

Kerry I think simply doesn't have it. I agree with Sabato on that Kerry loses to W, but it wouldn't be AS close as this. I can't see Kerry selling in middle America.

[dufekin]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_college-fig1.htm

This is the map; it's identical to the 2000 map except that the electoral vote counts have changed. Because Republicans reproduce while Democrats abort and marry members of same sex, we've gained a little edge.

[LS]

One can be objective without becoming overconfident. I think the "re-elect" numbers are meaningless at this point, because people just don't think about an election two years out. The number NOW to look at is approval, and I'm telling you, it will be a landslide.

I'm confident Bush will take Iowa, Minn., NM, Wisconsin, and Oregon without much effort. He lost three of those states by a TOTAL of about 30,000 votes. Moreover, Zogby found that the "early call" of Bush cost him 1 million votes NATIONALLY. Easily, that could have by itself cost him those three states.

Anything can happen, and yes, we all will work hard, but this one ain't gonna be close and the issue is, can the Dems keep it from causing their state and local tickets to go down the tubes too?

[Torie]

Stop trying to analyze this like a homo sapien, and get with the simian program. What the hell is wrong with you?

[Republican Wildcat]

I agree on not getting overconfident...but let's not be down in the dumps, either.

[Torie]

Because Republicans reproduce while Democrats abort and marry members of same sex, we've gained a little edge.

Totally wrong, but funny.

[Torie]

Er, no, one shouldn't. :)

[Kuksool]

I don't put too much faith in Larry Sabato's predictions. Last year, he thought the RATS would maintain control of the Senate and make a killing in the Governor races. He was way off in his predictions.