Phoenix rising - past Philly- in population

Philadelphia Daily News ^ | 7/9/2003 | RAMONA SMITH

[sjersey]

PHILLY'S DAYS are numbered as a top-five town.

Sometime soon - almost certainly within the next year - Philadelphia will tumble out of the ranks of the nation's five largest cities.

Phoenix, that desert upstart, will deliver another blow to Philly's fragile self-esteem as it surges past us up the population ladder - leaving us No. 6. Philadelphia has never been out of the top quintet.

Ever.

"It's going to happen, one way or another, the way they're growing," said John Haaga, a program director with the Population Reference Bureau, a nonprofit think tank based in Washington.

One Philly numbers-cruncher is even willing to guess the exact day - May 17, 2004. That's when Janice Fanning Madden, a University of Pennsylvania demographer and sociologist, estimates that Philadelphia's sliding population could collide with a rising Phoenix, with a population of about 1.49 million each.

The collision could come even sooner. New city population estimates are due from the Census Bureau tomorrow and there's an outside chance, but no expectation, of a sudden upset.

But Madden thinks her May 2004 date is "a pretty good approximation."

"You never know the exact date," she said. "That's for sure."

Philly's fall from the five most-populous U.S. cities will be tentative at first, a product of estimates and projections - the same way the bad news got out when we lost fourth place to Houston in the 1980s. There won't be another actual population count until the 2010 census.

The city's population has continued to erode. Philadelphia lost a half-million people in the 50 years leading up to 2000.

What will it mean? Will Philadelphians sit on their steps and weep?

"I'm sure it has impact in terms of ego, if you can say a city has an ego," said Ted Hirshberg, professor of public policy and history at Penn. But, he added, "It's not the end of the world. It's nothing new."

The problems linked to population loss here, however, are seriously real, Hirshberg said. These losses have cost Philadelphia congressional seats and federal dollars during the long slide, which left the city's population at 1.52 million in the 2000 census. The plunge was steepest in the 1970s, with a 13 percent loss.

Phoenix, by contrast, grew 34.3 percent in a decade, with a 2000 population of 1.32 million.

And as Phoenix continued to grow, Philadelphia lost an estimated 25,319 more residents by last July 1 - the largest numerical loss in the country, according to county population estimates estimates put out by the Census Bureau in April. The estimates suggest the city's population has dipped below 1.50 million.

Philadelphia and other Northeast urban centers continue to struggle with taxes, schools and crime, Hirshberg said. These roots and impacts of population loss, he and others said, are more important than city rankings.

David Bartelt, a professor of urban studies and geography at Temple University, said, "I just can't get my head around the idea that we're like a very large football league that is concerned about place in the league table."

Bartelt said Philadelphia has had "a significant problem for a number of decades now" with people choosing to live somewhere outside the city. And issues such as schools and suburban-style housing are the real topics for serious discussion, he said.

"That's a different thing from being upset about going from fifth to sixth place in the league table."

City Commerce Director James Cuorato said Street administration officials believe Philadelphia will regain some population. A change in rankings, he said, "is probably more of a positive for Phoenix than it is of a negative for us."

But Phoenix isn't rushing to grab the title of No. 5.

"I don't go out and tell people we're the fifth-largest city or the sixth-largest city or the fourth-largest city. We go out and sell the quality of the city," said Dave Richert, Phoenix planning director.

As time goes on, sixth place probably won't be Philly's lowest rung on the ladder. Other cities - San Diego, Dallas, San Antonio - have been gaining from a greater distance.

Madden recently estimated a date for San Diego to overtake Philadelphia - July 11, 2015. She did it the same way as the Phoenix estimate - by using the rates of change shown in the 2000 census, including a bit more than a 4 percent drop for Philly in the course of a decade.

But Madden doesn't put much stock in her San Diego estimate.

"That's far enough out," she said, "that there's so much that could happen."

[ikka]

If Philly gets rid of its corrupt Democratic politicians; its union thuggery and kleptocracy; and takes care of its crime problem, it will reverse the trend and start growing.

However I doubt it will happen... "the brothers and sisters are running the city now!" - quote from current mayor John Street.

[Support Free Republic]

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[End Times Sentinel]

I wonder if it has anything to do with the 4.53% wage tax, the 300% increase in Real Estate taxes, the 1% sales tax, the 200% higher car insurance rates, and the non-existant municipal service?

 

Nah.  Keep up the good work Big John.  We'll rival Harare in no time!  

 

 

Owl_Eagle

”Guns Before Butter.”

[Tallguy]

Philly's problems are a lot deeper than a corrupt mayor or crime. The demographic shift to the suburbs, which started in the post-War years, continues.

Philly's declining population is really just a technicality. If you include the population of the bordering counties (including S. Jersey), the population continues to grow. Can Phoenix say the same? Given their geographic limitations (Water), I'd guess not.

[Eagles2003]

Good Start! Remember Frank Rizzo was a Democrat back in the old days and the R's were so bad they came in third in the mayor's race behind the Communist party.

In the suburbs we used to "half" joke that the best thing for Philly would be to put a dome over it and drop a nuke in.

"Half" joke because no one would care if Philly was gone. Sounded like a good idea to too many people. Little redeeming value, Phillies and Eagles that stunk to the high heavens. Temple and Penn, just plain leftist colleges. I can't tell you how many Penn grads I've questioned what they did to earn a degree, especially the international school.

Even Pat's Steaks got spanked when they tried to expand. Their stuff s*cked! Never went there again.

What are we gonna salvage? Larry's Home of the Bellyfillers? Drexel. What else? Some hospitals, the Liberty Bell. Been to Bookbinder's lately?

[gcruse]

Something like the shock a few years ago when San Francisco dropped out as the second largest city in California to San Jose. It wasn't so surprising when realized, though, that SF is on a peninsula and can't grow any more. Still, I was weird.

[gcruse]

Heh. Still, IT was weird.

[fieldmarshaldj]

*ping* Thought this might interest you...

[Torie]

And here I thought that Philly had just under 2 million in population. I AM out of date.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"And here I thought that Philly had just under 2 million in population. I AM out of date."

Yeah, about 40 years. It only was above 2 million in 1950 and '60, slid to 1.9 mil in '70 and has lost 400k+ since. But the problem with all of these population comparisons is the issue of "area." Philly is only about 135 square miles, Phoenix is 475 sq mi. Phoenix would have to grow to over 5 million to be equal in density, and I find it doubtful it ever will grow that large (especially over the issue of water. There's too damn many people in a lot of those places out west as it is).

[Cyber Liberty]

Phoenix, that desert upstart...

I love it when they call us that. New York was saying that. In late October, 2001. It felt good when Gonzo looped that base hit in Game 7 that year....

[Cyber Liberty]

(especially over the issue of water. There's too damn many people in a lot of those places out west as it is).

That's exactly what we want you to think...heh, heh, heh....

[Torie]

There ARE too many folks in the West. I want a cheap beach house. I'm annoyed that my lifestyle is impaired.

[Cyber Liberty]

I agree. We need a drawbridge somewhere. Blythe?

[Torie]

Yup. I very recently did the second home thing in the Coachella Valley, but it was too late, really. I did it anyway, because I just wanted to do it. Desert sand is still cheaper than beach sand. The joy however, is that I get to do some more landscaping and implement a vision in my mind. Everyone needs a hobby.