The Pink Triangle Wedge? (gay marriage to split black votes from dems)

Fraters Liberatas ^ | 7/5/2003 | The Elder

[visagoth]

Tuesday, August 05, 2003

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The Pink Triangle Wedge?

In the 2000 election only 10% of African-American voters pulled the lever (or punched the chad) for Bush. Obviously these are dismal numbers which the Bush team would certainly love to improve upon come 2004.

The recent brouhaha over gay marriage may be the issue they use to try to chip away at what has become a Democratic stranglehold on the black vote. A Gallup Poll conducted on July 25-27 shows that support for legalized homosexual relations among blacks has dropped to 35%. While most African-Americans have embraced the broad positions of the Democratic party, when it comes to social issues they are often more conservative. In particular they aren't too crazy about being allied with the very outspoken gay rights movement and its leaders.

Will this one issue be enough to get large numbers of black voters to cross over and vote for Bush in 2004? Probably not. But even if only a small percentage do it will weaken the base of core support for the eventual Democratic candidate, and whoever that turns out to be will very likely be unable to afford any slippage if he hopes to have a chance to upset Bush.

Look for the Republicans to try to get as much play out of gay marriage for as long as they can.

[=Intervention=]

Nevertheless, blacks voted en masse for Reagan in '80 and to a lesser degree, in '84. Something must have been working.

[laurav]

I agree that the distrust runs very, very deep. I was being interviewed on an African-American radio station in Detroit this morning (by which I mean the hosts were black, ads aimed at black viewers. I don't know the ownership). I was talking about professors' political affiliations -- registered Republicans vs. registered Democrats at a variety of different schools. One of the hosts kept belaboring the point that being a Democrat was not the same as being liberal. True, says I, but you can find out voter registration, and it's a proxy for ideology. We went back and forth on this, until it finally occurred to me, oh yeah, this is an African American in Detroit. 99% of the people he knows vote Democratic -- and that probably includes everyone from the minister who raves against gay marriage to the avowed Marxist in the teachers union local. So he couldn't see "Democrat" as being an ideology -- it's just a state of affairs, an unquestioned assumption that means nothing about your politics. Republicans are simply The Other, not something anyone you know meddles with. Many blacks see opposition to affirmative action as a code word for racism. The host kept telling me that Republicans and conservatives liked the values of the 1950's, and that included Jim Crow. So when they oppose affirmative action now, they're really saying that they'd prefer there not be blacks in "their" universities.
So what can one do? I don't know. Distrust is deep, and I hope it changes, but I'm not sure how. Urban blacks especially seem to prefer to hash out ideological issues in the Democratic primary elections, not in a Republican vs. Democratic contest. So pointing out that many African Americans share Republican values on many social issues won't change that.

[expatpat]

I agree wholeheartedly. 'Gay' is a good word that should not be used for the queer part of this nation.

[=Intervention=]

The Matrix is nothing more than refried Marxism. My point remains.

[JohnGalt]

The Matrix? Never saw it.

I was referencing Brave New World by Aldous Huxley; you might be able to secure the Cliff Notes.

Turn off your freakin' tv.

[Sloth]

Are you under the impression that all blacks live in corrupt urban districts?

[dark_lord]

Whatever the merits to your claim, the so-called 'black vote' is fixed and its nonsense to pretend otherwise. So long as urban welfare districts continue to vote 102% for the Ds with no Republican reaction, there is no point in speaking seriously about a shift in voting patterns.

This is only partially true, because the assumption here is that the "black vote" is restricted to those urban welfare districts. This is false. There is a growing black middle class and they have moved massively to the suburbs. They are the primary target for weaning away from the DemonRats.

[JohnGalt]

No.

This is actually a fairly simple point.

In 2000 black voted something like 92% D. That tells me that suburban blacks probably voted something like 55-45 maybe? Making headway in this number may have some meaning, but its much too small a demographic to have any real intellectual or political meaning.

Urban districts, that make up the so called "black vote," are hotbeds of corruption.

All folks are registered to vote and whether they show up or not on election day, you can bet they cast a D vote. If inner-city districts had the same kind of voter turn out experienced in other demographics (say 60%) the numbers would be more reasonable.

[JohnGalt]

I agree completely, and even challenge that there is something called the 'black vote' since as a satistical category its completely bogus.

Not only a growing black middle class but also the eventual recognition that their fates are tied to the fate of the white middle class as unrestrained immigration continues to threaten their value to the workplace.

[Drew68]

This may very well be true. I can't think of any group in society other than the KKK that likes homosexuals less than the average African American Male.

You are correct. The contempt for homosexuality within the black community is so strong that many gay black men have to live their life on the "down-low" meaning that they stay deep in the closet, often marrying women and fathering children.

Unfortunately, being a gay black man "down low" has led to a rise in HIV-AIDS among heterosexual black women who became infected from the husbands and lovers that they did not know were gay.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Nevertheless, blacks voted en masse for Reagan in '80 and to a lesser degree, in '84. Something must have been working."

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I hope you're being sarcastic. Reagan never got as much as 25% of the black vote.

[wjcsux]

You are absolutely right. The plantation owners aren't going to turn their slaves loose.

[underbyte]

The last election was pretty tight. A part of a % point here or there can make a huge difference in many races.

My projections for the republican column based the demorat choise of election year topics:

Democrats- Gays can become priests & get married - maybe a plus for 2% vote for replublicans between Blacks Hispanics and whites.

Democrats- we are going to take back your tax refund - Add 1% vote from all groups to the repubs.

Democrats- Yellowcake,WMD, constant barrage of negative attacks on the wrong issues will come back to bite them in the butt.- WMD case will be made and they will get Saddam. Add 2 % more to the republicans for democrat hysteria and suicidal lurch to the far left.

Republicans win election +5% national vote

I am Hopefull that the hardcore Demcrats will continue on their present path. Their current talking point assasination agenda could have been written for them by Carl rove they attack the stong proints and ignore the weak ones. Instead they should be hitting on high emotional subjects like the job outsourcing. If the recovery is not up to par all bets are off, that trumps all other issues

[.cnI redruM]

That's a scary thought. It's really hard to know somebody completely...

[.cnI redruM]

I hope you are right. THat big a swing could give the GOP a 60 member Senate population. That makes Frist at least as powerful a man as the president.

[underbyte]

When Reagan eliminated Tax deductions for credit cards and car payments the blacks felt cheated and hence lends creditbility to the Liberal mantra "tax cuts for the wealthy" Middle class blacks have not forgotten that one.

[tru_degenerate]

Wonder why that didn't work in 2002.

[tru_degenerate]

D#$mn

[JohnGalt]

Umm...2002 was not a Presidential election.

Not sure I understand your point.

[honeygrl]

Hey I use to use your nickname years ago (in 98 and 99 i think) to chat on efnet and talkcity when I didn't want to be recognized.