Posted on 08/17/2003 8:46:54 AM PDT by NutmegGuy
Who could have thought that a 54-year old doctor and ex-governor of sleepy Vermont could send all of the Democratic presidential contenders scrambling for cover? There are lots of reasons for Republicans to wish Howard Dean all the best of luck in his quest to become George Bush's opponent in 2004. It makes a true Republican want to send a campaign donation his way.
Howard Dean is such a thorn in everyone's side because he disrupts the delicate balance of power that has been so cultivated by the "front-runners." It was expected that Dick Gephardt would easily sweep the Iowa caucus since he is from nearby Missouri and because of his close ties to labor groups who helped him sweep Iowa in 1988. Instead, Dean is giving Gephardt his biggest challenge in the corn state and could pull off an upset.
Conventional wisdom also had it that John Kerry would easily sweep New Hampshire, given that his home state of Massachusetts is just to the south. It is here that Howard Dean could pull off the biggest upset. Voters in New Hampshire are just as familiar with the ex-governor of Vermont as they are with the junior senator from their neighbor to the south. John Kerry MUST win New Hampshire to keep himself viewed as the leading Northeast liberal candidate. It is his niche and a failure in New Hampshire could jeopardize his chances in New York, New Jersey and other states that Kerry has expected to form his base. Right now, there is an unexpected dead heat where Kerry cannot afford it.
Dean has also been surprisingly strong in South Carolina, the third contest in sequential order. This threatens John Edwards, who otherwise would benefit by being seen as a moderate southerner from neighboring North Carolina. South Carolina is Edwards' must-win state. It is where he has to start his counter-attack in the south. The question-mark here is where the state's large black voting base will turn. The liberal, maverick message of Dean is only just starting to be heard and could tip the scales to the renegade candidate.
But where Dean has an ace in the hole is with his fund-raising machine. In the most recent quarter, he picked up $7.6 million, almost $2 million more than runner-up John Kerry and almost twice that of the labor-backed Gephardt.
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(Excerpt) Read more at dondodd.com ...
I don't have a clue why the Bushbots want Dean. Anyone who will arouse passions, create interest, wake up clueless non-voters, and be able to differentiate him/her self from GWB is the biggest threat. Kerry, Lieberman, Edwards...what do they have to offer? Nothing new....no reason for change. "Safer" choices don't provide a reason for change.
I keep stating Dean's dangerous. If he were to choose a VP who was accepted by either labor or the Greens, watch out!
ROTFL...if the Hildebeast lurks here, you have just made her seriously ill!!
Honestly, I can't figure out why the Pres didn't just leave the thing for Monica.
Welcome back. I thought you had been banned for good but it seems you only got a couple of days.
1. He has a strong energetic base. He's the dark horse that came out of nowhere.
2. He's an outsider and a governor. Governor's become presidents.
3. Bush is abandoning his conservative base with his liberal policies. My parent's are on the fence right now. Several others I know are also on the fence, and others had enough and will be voting third party or staying home. Two statewide races in Michigan were 17,000 votes and 5,000 votes.
4. A lot of the Nader backers would back Dean. Dean is also running a semi-populist campaign. Populist WINS right now. It's also how alwhore came back to steal Michigan and Penn.
5. While Dean IS anti-gun, he's not AS anti-gun as the others like Kerry and Gephart.
6. Dean's not a bad speaker and doesn't sound as abrasive(to me anyway) as Kerry or Gephart. He didn't sound as elitist and I suspected him to sound either.
As for the others, Lieberman is hated by liberals. Gephardt could be a threat with labor, but has been around forever. He's very abrasive as well. Kerry is Dukakis and an elitist 'high society' liberal, not to mention his wife is a loose cannon.
Rove wants Dean, but Rove does not have a good track record in the Midwest.
You make some good points, and I also know that there are some moderate Republicans supporting Dean right now. (I'll probably get flamed for saying it though.) I will say one thing for Dean--he's very articulate. That could give him an advantage.
There are really 7 types of voters, many overlap.
1. Near 100% Party loyalists. These people will vote GOP or Dem no matter what. Detroit and Ottawa County MI are the two extreme examples in my state.
2. Hard line conservatives or liberals. These are JUST as important as the 'moderates' that get all the hype. If you can't get your issues base to back you, that makes it that much harder to win. There are a LOT of these in my county. Liberal or moderate republicans can get as low as 53% here because conservatives won't vote for them. Conservative Republicans can get 70% or higher.
3. Reagan Democrats/Union Independents - Social Conservatices, economic populists. - These are a lot of the union members that don't drink the kool-aid. Macomb County, Monroe County, North Michigan. Those areas have a lot of them. They voted for Gore, but also for Posthumus. They hate wimps too. Gephardt would do well with them. Kerry would NOT.
4. Soccer Moms - Security is key, but personality is the biggest factor. They've leaned democrat recently. Very unpredictable and unreliable voters IMO.
5. The wallet - Most common non loyalist voter. Very politically uninformed. If money is good, keep them there. If not, throw the bums out. Gore did best among these independents. Posthumus did well among wallet voters here for the same reason.(Those that liked Engler usually voted for him too) These scare me the most right now.
6. Single Issue - Ties to the base to some extent. Guns, Abortion, Taxes, NAFTA, GATT, Drugs, Immigration.
7. Small l libertarians. - These tend to vote for the more pro-freedom candidate. Largely tied to single issues, but there are several issues tied together.
Dean may do very well among the wallets(Doesn't matter if it's Bush's fault or not), small l libertarians(Patriot Act, Dean's friendly REPUTATION on guns, outsider).
Gephart is probably the 2nd strongest of the dems and could be a tough race with labor united.
Kerry is Dukakis. Can you see him in a tank..... He may do well with sucker moms, but I bet he'll get 30% of the guy vote, maybe 15% among white guys that don't live in New England or San Francisco.
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