Category 2 Hurricane Fabian headed west and Tropical Storm Grace forecast tonight in Gulf of Mexico

National Hurricane Center, Miami, Fl ^ | August 30, 2003 | National Hurricane Center

[varina davis]

HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2003

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF FABIAN CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE ARE GOOD CENTRAL AND BANDING FEATURES...THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...AN EYE FEATURE IS BECOMING APPARENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 AND 4.5 FROM TAFB...SAB AND KGWC...RESPECTIVELY. THIS MAKES FABIAN A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FABIAN IS MOVING OVER WARM WATER AND INTO LOW SHEAR. THEREFORE... ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.

THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE ANCHORED FROM THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.

THIS PATTERN WOULD KEEP FABIAN ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO EVEN WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE FABIAN TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL. IN THE SHORT RANGE...THE GFS MOVES FABIAN ON A STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN AND IS PROBABLY BECAUSE THE GFS TREATS FABIAN AS A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS AN EXCELLENT MODEL AND ATTENTION MUST BE PAID TO THE NEXT RUN.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 17.2N 48.6W 85 KT 12HR VT 31/0000Z 17.5N 50.5W 90 KT 24HR VT 31/1200Z 18.5N 53.0W 95 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 19.0N 55.5W 100 KT 48HR VT 01/1200Z 19.5N 57.5W 100 KT 72HR VT 02/1200Z 20.5N 61.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 03/1200Z 22.0N 64.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 04/1200Z 25.0N 67.5W 100 KT

[varina davis]

Looks like Florida will be sandwiched between two tropical systems in the coming week.

[varina davis]

Here's the latest on the predicted Tropical Storm Grace in the GOM:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2003

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH THE DEPRESSION PRODUCING SOME SHEAR. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH MOST OF THE WEATHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OR DRIFT SOUTHWARD RESULTING IN LIGHTER SHEAR. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 310 DEGREES OR NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER AVILA

[blam]

I'm on the gulf coast in Mobile. Please ping me to the hurricane articles as they're updated, thanks.

[Dog Gone]

Fabian looks like it's heading for the Atlantic coastline, from Florida on north. There will be several days before it threatens land and we'll have a better idea of strike probability by next Thursday or so.

TD 11, soon to be TS Grace has formed quickly and will come ashore somewhere between Corpus Christi and Morgan City, LA. Fortunately, it is unlikely to develop hurricane status before then.

[deport]

[varina davis]

That's about right Dog Gone, though an Upper Level Low in the GOM may be providing some good outflow for the GOM system -- which could make it more threatening. Too soon to say and even NHC is uncertain of path at this point.

[bwteim]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml
or http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_astorm10+shtml/301503.shtml?

are links you need. I can't open your link, http://www.NHC.gov
-bw

[varina davis]

Thanks bwteim -- I realized that after I posted.

[SC Swamp Fox]

[BushCountry]

They have been so conservative (far off their estimates) on the strenght of Fabian I am wondering if TD-11 will reach cat-1 status?

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane season reaches its average peak this week.

Surf's up!

[bwteim]

Thanks for the pic.

[varina davis]

Here is a good website for information:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[John H K]

They have been so conservative (far off their estimates) on the strenght of Fabian I am wondering if TD-11 will reach cat-1 status?

The NHC intensity forecasts for Fabian haven't been particularly inaccurate.

[Dog Gone]

It's possible, I suppose. Right now the highest probability of landfall is between Port Arthur and Lake Charles, but I don't have very high confidence in the prediction.

It developed without warning overnight, and they haven't had much chance to study it.

The two high pressure systems over the US should sling the storm north pretty rapidly, though.

[blam]

It 'feels' pre-hurricane like here, with overcast skies, rain showers and ocassionaly some gusty winds.

[Rain-maker]

10L.FABIAN, TRACK_VIS,  30 AUG 2003 1715Z

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11L.NONAME, TRACK_VIS,  30 AUG 2003 1732Z

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Hawaiin Islands under hurricane watch too.

10E.JIMENA, TRACK_VIS,  30 AUG 2003 1745Z

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[BushCountry]

The NHC intensity forecasts for Fabian haven't been particularly inaccurate.

Only 30 or 40 mph off. Yesterday morning they predicted a 60 mph storm for the next three or four days.

[Dog Gone]

In the Houston area, tropical clouds are already spinning across from the east, a sure sign of a tropical storm of some sort.

[varina davis]

UPDATE:

BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GRACE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2003

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM GRACE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RERSERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 43 KNOTS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...ALONG WITH WIND REPORTS FROM A SHIP AND OFFSHORE OIL RIG...THE DEPRESSION IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM GRACE AS OF 1 PM CDT...1800Z.

FORECASTER STEWART