Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[Howlin]

[Rebelbase]

The structures at these two places will probably get wiped off the map as well as the islands themselves receiving a face lift, maybe a new inlet or two.

Alger Willis Fish Camp
Portsmouth Island

Needless to say, my Friday trip to Portsmouth has been cancelled.

[redhead]

A bump and a ping

[Rebelbase]

Wow, that evacuation is going to be one huge mess. I have friends who left for Hatteras today. I bet they get evacuated by Tuesday.

[CobaltBlue]

Either it catches land there, or it's heading straight to DC.

The Potomac River is already kinda high, with all the rain we've had lately.

Yesterday we had a crab feast at Tim's in Cherry Hill, VA - might have been the last crab feast of the year if the storm hits as they are predicting.

Anybody care to recommend another good crab shack in the DC region? I could probably do one more crab feast before the hurricane. ;^)

[Howlin]

I know you are just heartsick.

You know, people younger than we are, people who moved to North Carolina "after" high school, just don't realize how bad this could be, do they?

I remember between Carol and Diane, standing in the parking lot where Bert's Surf Shop is at Atlantic Beach and there was water up to my knees.

I hope this isn't going to be a "lesson" to all those people down there who live in those "modular homes" that they call condos.

[U S Army EOD]

The only survivor of the apartment complex was found several miles inland. When she went ACROSS THE TOP of Bay St Louis she claimed she could not see the tops of the trees. If I am not mistaken the wind guage at the airport broke at 238MPH.

[mrs tiggywinkle]

**LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS. That means that people need to prepare their property as best they can, and then evacuate. There are no heroes who ride out a direct hit from a storm of this magnitude. Just fools. **

Good advice.

Prayer heavenward <><

[Dog Gone]

Anyone who thinks a Cat 3 is a piece of cake didn't witness Fredric's fury!

Anyone who is curious what it's like can stand up in the passenger seat of a car driving about 120 mph. Be sure to have someone throwing buckets of water at you while you're doing this.

Of course, throwing branches and pieces of sheet metal at you will make the experience even more realistic.

[mrs tiggywinkle]

**This is thing will be almost directly over me.....oh crap. I'm in South Jersey....going to be a wild ride I think.**

You can borrow our guest room out here in earthquake country.

[GOPcapitalist]

supposedly the high waves and rough seas this week have been from the remnant of a previous tropical storm.

Yeah. They peaked at somewhere in the 12 ft range last week with Fabian and Henri and dropped off a little in between. Now they are headed back up over 8 and seem to be rising as this next one moves in.

[CROSSHIGHWAYMAN]

no way the south shore of long island could be evacuated in anything less then 2+ days. so when are they going to start?

If I lived on the South Shore, I would be making reservations today.

Reservations for Denver!!

[Dog Gone]

but someone please back up or refute this: the faster it begins to move, the further south it strikes.

I agree with that, given the current weather patterns. And that will be true whether it's moving west or northwest.

[Mears]

I still remember the Hurricane of 1938 that devastated Mass and RI.

I was very young but I remember the windows blowing out in our apartment. Scary!!

Many lives were lost because forecasting was so poor in those days.

[CathyRyan]

Are you talking about Bert's Surf Shop in North Myrtle Beach?

[oceanview]

if it goes in where the track predicts right now, I would not need to do anything. sure, it would be windy, rainy, some storm surge, but survivable where I am on long island. but if the strike point moves north, then I have to bail out.

[Mamzelle]

When was the last time a real hurricane hit Delmarva? I remember lots of threats from storms, but never real ones like I experienced in Galveston.

[Howlin]

Nope, the original Bert's at Atlantic Beach, North Carolina.

[Amelia]

I wonder when they will start the evacuations? It seems like they need alot of lead time given the population density of the area likely to be hit.

That's a huge problem in the coastal areas. They do need a long lead time to get everyone out, but on the other hand, people get really perturbed when they are told to evacuate (as we were for Hugo, Floyd, etc.) and then the storm takes a last-minute turn and misses.

IIRC, Hugo was expected to make landfall around Savannah until the 4 or 5 pm report - at that point it had made a slight northward shift, so ended up coming in just above Charleston instead, about midnight.

The authorities are really in a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don't position here - if they wait until they are sure where it's going, not everyone will have time to get out. On the other hand, when they tell people to leave and the storm ends up missing, it's very expensive for those who evacuated (and there were those who actually died evacuating from Floyd who'd have been fine at home) and some people get angry.

[Dog Gone]

Anyone who is curious what it's like can stand up in the passenger seat of a car driving about 120 mph.

Important detail-- the car has to be a convertible.