Posted on 09/21/2003 1:20:03 PM PDT by ambrose
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http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/986494/posts
Same poll, different headline, and different spin. Interesting.
From story: Headline: Poll Shows Most in Calif. Would Vote to Oust Davis
From story: Actual poll results: While a majority of likely voters said they would choose to unseat Davis, support for doing so dipped to 53 percent from 58 percent since the last poll a month ago.Most?? Something does not compute between those statements. If Davis opponents start opening the champagne too early, they could be shocked.
Hmmm ---- Bustamante 28 --- Arnie 26 --- McClintock 14 --- NoneofAbove 32 percent
Hmmmm 32 - 6 = 26. That seems to say that 26 percent who have decided on recall are not for one of the top 3 or have not decided. The poll says 18 percent have not decided on a replacement.
Take away the 6 percent undecided and we have 26. and If 8 percent are for the fringe candidates then we have 18 percent who have decided on recall but not a replacement. Would they tend to be in the "for recall" group or "against recall" group?.. What do you think? I would bet that if you have an opinion on recall and none on replcacement you are against recall. If one is against the recall considering a replacement is not on your agenda.
If that be true how will that 18 percent vote on a replacedment on election day? I would say they would favor Bustamante.
This poll seems to say that those in favor of recall have dropped from 58 to 52... a 6 percent drop. Were those the same people who caused Busamante's support to drop from 34 to 28? Are those who are transistioning from For recall to Against Recall, now polling as undecided on a replacement? Are they coming out of Bustamante's hide?
The other question not addressed is will 10 percent of the voters supporting McClintock not vote if McClintock pulls out. If they do, and that is what ideolges traditionally do, it goes from 52 to 42 for recall to 53 to 47 against recall and Davis wins.
That only 68 percent of the likely voters are supporting one of the top 3 candidates for recall, is a strange circumstance. I would not be surprsed to see actual Bustamante votes be higher than the polls say. I think that 26 percent of that 32 percent not for a prime candidate in the replacement election will end up voting against recall and for Bustamante.
And the thread on that poll:
LATEST CA RECALL POLL: Bustamante 28%, Schwarzenegger 26%, McClinitock 14%
I've believed from the start that this recall is a referendum on Prop 187. Davis-arranged mediation killed Prop 187 in 1999 and a recall effort then failed.
I googled an old news item from the eve of the election in 1994. "The poll last week by the Los Angeles Times also showed support among voters in general dropping to 51 percent from 59 percent two weeks earlier. A separate poll by Mark Baldassari and Associates in Irvine conducted October 28 through 31 showed 49 percent in favor, compared to 55 percent a month ago, said Sherry Babitch Jeffe, Claremont College political analyst."
Well, Prop 187 passed 59 percent to 41 percent. Forty percent of the people who went out to vote that year did so just to vote for Prop 187. If those people are back -- and prior to the 9th circus act -- it appeared that they would be Davis will lose by a similar number, 60 - 40.
BTW, the news article stated that 62 percents of Latinos favored Prop 187 as late as Sept. of that year. The Mexicans living in California and the left unleashed a hellish firestorm of hate against Gov. Wilson including stirring up public school students and causing literally thousands of them (10,000 in one day in L.A.) to walk out of classes to protest Prop 187. Thirty percent of Latinos voted for Prop 187 even after months of TV lies and 24/7 activism.
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