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Poll Shows Most in Calif. Would Vote to Oust Davis
Reuters ^ | 9-21 | Reuters

Posted on 09/21/2003 1:20:03 PM PDT by ambrose

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Poll Shows Most in Calif. Would Vote to Oust Davis

Sun September 21, 2003 12:43 AM ET



By Michael Kahn

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Support for removing Gov. Gray Davis from office has slipped slightly but most Californians would still vote to recall the unpopular Democrat in the special election set for Oct. 7 but subject to court revision, according to a poll released on Sunday.

The Public Policy Institute of California survey also showed that Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante was narrowly the top choice to replace Davis with the support of 28 percent of likely voters, followed closely by Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger at 26 percent.

But because the survey of 1,033 likely voters conducted between Sept. 9 and Sept. 17 had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, that contest was shaping up as a near dead heat.

While a majority of likely voters said they would choose to unseat Davis, support for doing so dipped to 53 percent from 58 percent since the last poll a month ago.

"While distrust and anger remain white hot -- and a majority still favor the recall of Governor Davis -- enthusiasm for the recall effort is cooling a bit," said survey director Mark Baldassare. "Fewer voters may see the process as a cure for their larger concerns.

Davis is facing the Republican-led recall election over his handling of California's battered finances. Voters in the two-part ballot will be asked if they want to recall Davis and who should replace him.

The survey results come one day before a federal appeals court will reconsider its ruling delaying the Oct. 7 election because of concerns that older, error-prone punch card ballots still used in some counties would effectively disenfranchise many voters.

The poll also showed that while Bustamante and Schwarzenegger remained the front-runners, support was growing for Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock, who some in his party fear could take just enough Republican votes to cost Schwarzenegger the election.

McClintock, who has sought to portray himself as the true conservative in the race, saw his support shoot to 14 percent from 5 percent since the previous survey in mid-August.

Roughly one in five voters, or 18 percent, said they have not decided on a replacement candidate -- making critical the last few weeks of what has been a wild campaign.

Voters also said a debate next week that will mark Schwarzenegger's first appearance at such an event is critical in helping them choose a candidate. That debate has spurred controversy because questions will be provided in advance, prompting some candidates to consider skipping the event.

The survey also found that, even as support for the recall cools, Californians remain glued to the campaign. The poll said 92 percent of likely voters are very closely or fairly closely following news on the recall.



TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: California
KEYWORDS: clintonscoattails; polls
"Opposition to Recall Gaining in Poll"

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/986494/posts

Same poll, different headline, and different spin. Interesting.

1 posted on 09/21/2003 1:20:04 PM PDT by ambrose
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To: BibChr; onyx; PhiKapMom; Tamsey; redlipstick; habs4ever; My2Cents; South40; ...
ping
2 posted on 09/21/2003 1:22:08 PM PDT by EggsAckley (..........I *LOVE* hitting the abuse button...............)
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To: DoctorZIn
ping
3 posted on 09/21/2003 1:25:32 PM PDT by ambrose (Free Tommy Chong!)
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To: ambrose
I don't see how any man can vote for Davis after he vetoed a law that would protect men and their families from paternity fraud.
4 posted on 09/21/2003 1:42:14 PM PDT by Balto_Boy
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To: All
From story: Headline: Poll Shows Most in Calif. Would Vote to Oust Davis
From story: Actual poll results: While a majority of likely voters said they would choose to unseat Davis, support for doing so dipped to 53 percent from 58 percent since the last poll a month ago.
Most?? Something does not compute between those statements. If Davis opponents start opening the champagne too early, they could be shocked.
--Raoul
5 posted on 09/21/2003 2:01:51 PM PDT by RDangerfield
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To: ambrose
Hmmmm --- For Recall 52 --- Againt recall 42 ----- Undecided 6;

Hmmm ---- Bustamante 28 --- Arnie 26 --- McClintock 14 --- NoneofAbove 32 percent

Hmmmm 32 - 6 = 26. That seems to say that 26 percent who have decided on recall are not for one of the top 3 or have not decided. The poll says 18 percent have not decided on a replacement.

Take away the 6 percent undecided and we have 26. and If 8 percent are for the fringe candidates then we have 18 percent who have decided on recall but not a replacement. Would they tend to be in the "for recall" group or "against recall" group?.. What do you think? I would bet that if you have an opinion on recall and none on replcacement you are against recall. If one is against the recall considering a replacement is not on your agenda.

If that be true how will that 18 percent vote on a replacedment on election day? I would say they would favor Bustamante.

This poll seems to say that those in favor of recall have dropped from 58 to 52... a 6 percent drop. Were those the same people who caused Busamante's support to drop from 34 to 28? Are those who are transistioning from For recall to Against Recall, now polling as undecided on a replacement? Are they coming out of Bustamante's hide?

The other question not addressed is will 10 percent of the voters supporting McClintock not vote if McClintock pulls out. If they do, and that is what ideolges traditionally do, it goes from 52 to 42 for recall to 53 to 47 against recall and Davis wins.

That only 68 percent of the likely voters are supporting one of the top 3 candidates for recall, is a strange circumstance. I would not be surprsed to see actual Bustamante votes be higher than the polls say. I think that 26 percent of that 32 percent not for a prime candidate in the replacement election will end up voting against recall and for Bustamante.

6 posted on 09/21/2003 2:08:32 PM PDT by Common Tator (I support Billybob. www.ArmorforCongress.com)
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To: RDangerfield
53% is "most" as far as I know.
7 posted on 09/21/2003 2:09:05 PM PDT by Hugin
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To: ambrose
And here are the details of the real poll:

PPI CA Recall poll

And the thread on that poll:

LATEST CA RECALL POLL: Bustamante 28%, Schwarzenegger 26%, McClinitock 14%

8 posted on 09/21/2003 2:16:07 PM PDT by FairOpinion
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To: Common Tator
You raise some good questions:

- I believe that McClintock will get 5 to 8% even if he withdraws. If his name weren't on the ballot, those same 5 to 8% would go for Gary Coleman, or skip the replacement question. They will never vote for Arnold. Period.

- Historically, third party candidates take about to 5 to 8% of the total vote, even in normal CA elections. In this election, I'd expect the minor "protest" candidates to take over 10% of the vote.

- In CA recalls, there has been a historical tendency for the replacement vote to lag the yes/no vote. Many people will vote "no" and skip the replacement question out of deliberate choice (such as Diane Feinstein). Others will do so because they erroneously believe they are prohibited from making a replacement pick if they vote no.

- According to the SurveyUSA pollster (he posts on the FR poll threads), Republicans outnumber Democrats by about 2 to 1 in the undecided category. They're weighing Tom vs Arnold. They may be waiting for a McClintock surge and total collapse by Arnold. They will be voting for whoever is leading in the polls.

- Bustamante is losing ground because he has unbelievable negatives. You think Arnold is a vapid stealth candidate? Bustamante is even more so. He gives maybe one public appearance a week. Everytime he campaigns hard, he enrages the Rats who think the recall is illegitimate (just read what the DUers say).

- I think much will be riding on the debate this week. If Arnold makes a fool of himself and implodes, the RINOs may switch to "no on recall". Their hatred of McClintock and what he stands for is self-apparent and they'd rather have Davis than McClintock. These are the same people who sabotaged Bill Simon when their first choice of Riordan failed to win the nomination.
9 posted on 09/21/2003 2:35:24 PM PDT by ambrose (Free Tommy Chong!)
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To: All
While a majority of likely voters said they would choose to unseat Davis, support for doing so dipped to 53 percent from 58 percent since the last poll a month ago.

I've believed from the start that this recall is a referendum on Prop 187. Davis-arranged mediation killed Prop 187 in 1999 and a recall effort then failed.

I googled an old news item from the eve of the election in 1994. "The poll last week by the Los Angeles Times also showed support among voters in general dropping to 51 percent from 59 percent two weeks earlier. A separate poll by Mark Baldassari and Associates in Irvine conducted October 28 through 31 showed 49 percent in favor, compared to 55 percent a month ago, said Sherry Babitch Jeffe, Claremont College political analyst."

Well, Prop 187 passed 59 percent to 41 percent. Forty percent of the people who went out to vote that year did so just to vote for Prop 187. If those people are back -- and prior to the 9th circus act -- it appeared that they would be Davis will lose by a similar number, 60 - 40.

BTW, the news article stated that 62 percents of Latinos favored Prop 187 as late as Sept. of that year. The Mexicans living in California and the left unleashed a hellish firestorm of hate against Gov. Wilson including stirring up public school students and causing literally thousands of them (10,000 in one day in L.A.) to walk out of classes to protest Prop 187. Thirty percent of Latinos voted for Prop 187 even after months of TV lies and 24/7 activism.

10 posted on 09/21/2003 4:19:45 PM PDT by WilliamofCarmichael
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To: ambrose
Join Us…Your One Thread To All The California Recall News Threads!

Want on our daily or major news ping lists? Freepmail DoctorZin

11 posted on 09/21/2003 4:26:41 PM PDT by DoctorZIn
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To: ambrose
Follow the bouncing ball.
Keep the Arnold and McClintock morons fighting.
12 posted on 09/21/2003 5:01:10 PM PDT by Publius6961 (californians are as dumb as a sack of rocks.)
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To: EggsAckley
Gee... so Tom-tom McTraitor may be about to hand the governorship to Cruz Bustamante.

Gee... if only we'd warned the scorched-earthers about this....

Oh, wait.

WE DID.

Dan
13 posted on 09/21/2003 7:13:27 PM PDT by BibChr ("...behold, they have rejected the word of the LORD, so what wisdom is in them?" [Jer. 8:9])
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To: BibChr
Look at the post above yours, #12. They're outright admitting that they're disruptors. LOL!
14 posted on 09/21/2003 7:24:59 PM PDT by EggsAckley (..........I *LOVE* hitting the abuse button...............)
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To: EggsAckley
Can't argue with his tag line, though.

/c8
15 posted on 09/21/2003 7:41:19 PM PDT by BibChr ("...behold, they have rejected the word of the LORD, so what wisdom is in them?" [Jer. 8:9])
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To: Publius6961
#14 calling you a disruptor...
16 posted on 09/21/2003 11:39:17 PM PDT by ambrose (Free Tommy Chong!)
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To: ambrose
Californians are a flighty bunch.
17 posted on 09/22/2003 9:50:06 AM PDT by My2Cents ("I'm the party pooper..." -- Arnold in "Kindergarten Cop.")
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