The Incredible Shrinking Catholic Church

Catholic World News ^ | May 2003 | Kenneth C. Jones

[Gamecock]

The numbers tell the story.

Time magazine wanted to talk theology with Mel Gibson recently on the set of The Passion, his new movie depicting the last hours of Christ. Asked what he thought about the effects of the Second Vatican Council on the Catholic Church, the Braveheart of Catholic traditionalists said, "Look at the main fruits: dwindling numbers and pedophilia."

Gibson's post Vatican II ergo propter Vatican II argument would be enough to drive any high school logic teacher crazy. Is the Council responsible for all the Church's ills, including the priestly sex-abuse crisis, that have arisen since the Council closed in 1965? After all, many of the abuse allegations pre-dated the Council, and some of the most notorious offenders--like John Geoghan and Paul Shanley--were trained in the pre-Vatican II seminaries. Too many factors come into play to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the Council caused the pedophile priest phenomenon.

But Gibson comes closer to the mark when blaming the Second Vatican Council for the "dwindling numbers. In fact he is being generous, because "plummeting  would be a more accurate term than "dwindling" to describe of the incredibly shrinking Catholic Church since 1965. In every area that is statistically measurable--such as the number of priests, seminarians, priestless parishes and nuns--the deterioration is obvious, and is the exact opposite of the trends before the Council.

EMPTY SEMINARIES

Beyond a vague understanding of a need for "more vocations," most Catholics are perhaps unaware of the disaster facing the American priesthood. After skyrocketing from about 27,000 in 1930 to 58,000 in 1965, the number of priests in the United States dropped to 45,000 in 2002. By 2020, there will be about 31,000 priests--and only 15,000 will be under the age of 70, according to a study conducted by Dr. James R. Lothian of Fordham University.

The shortage of priests has created a problem previously unknown to modern Catholics: the priestless parish. Only 3 percent of the parishes in the US--a total of 549--were without a priest in 1965. In 2002 there were 2,928 priestless parishes, about 15 percent of all US parishes. By 2020, a quarter of all parishes, 4,656, will have no priest.

As one would expect, the priest dearth has been fueled by a collapse in the seminarian population. There were 16,300 seminarians in 1930 and 49,000 in 1965. By 2002 the number had plunged to 4,700: a 90 percent decrease. Without any students, countless seminaries across the country have been sold or shuttered. There were 596 seminaries in 1965, and only 200 in 2002.

And empty seminaries result in declining ordinations. While there were 1,575 ordinations to the priesthood in 1965, in 2002 there were 450, a decrease of 350 percent. Taking into account ordinations, deaths and departures, in 1965 there was a net gain of 725 priests. In 1998, there was a net loss of 810.

RELIGIOUS ORDERS DISAPPEARING

The tragedy of the convents has been perhaps even more startling. A host of 138,000 sisters ran the Catholic education and health systems in 1945; their numbers swelled to 180,000 by 1965. In 2002, there were 75,000 sisters, with an average age of 68. By 2020, the number of sisters will drop to 40,000--and of these, only 21,000 will be age 70 or under. One does not have to be Chicken Little to predict that within a generation there will be no nuns.

The same is true for the once-proud religious orders of men. For example, in 1965 there were 5,277 Jesuit priests and 3,559 seminarians; in 2000 there were 3,172 priests and 389 seminarians. There were 2,534 OFM Franciscan priests and 2,251 seminarians in 1965; in 2000 there were 1,492 priests and 60 seminarians. There were 2,434 Christian Brothers in 1965 and 912 seminarians; in 2000 there were 959 Brothers and 7 seminarians. It does not require special training in statistics to conclude that by 2050, if these trends continue, the Jesuits, the Franciscans, and the Christian Brothers, will be the virtually extinct in the US.

Other statistics on the life of the Catholic Church in America tell the same story. At the time of the Council there were 4.5 million students in US parochial schools; now there are 2 million. Before the Council there were less than 400 marriages annulled by Catholic diocesan tribunals in an average year; now there are 50,000. Before the Council 3 out of 4 Catholics attended Mass each week; now the figure is 1 in 4.

Given these alarming facts, one wonders how a movie star like Mel Gibson can sense a Church in extremis, but the American bishops cannot. They know the statistics (which are published by the US Conference of Catholic Bishops), yet take no action to counter the catastrophe.

The bishops do not have a good track record when it comes to responding to crisis. Just as they showed no interest in the sexual abuse of minors--in fact they were sometimes complicit--it is a good bet that the bishops will neglect the emergency that threatens the very existence of the Church in the America.

[AUTHOR ID] Kenneth C Jones of St. Louis is the author of Index of Leading Catholic Indicators: The Church since Vatican II, published by Oriens Publishing Co.

[vladimir998]

Good point Father. It wasn’t unusual for families to have 8 or 10 kids and see several of them become priests or nuns just 50 years ago.

[Suzy Quzy]

God Bless and Keep you!

[big'ol_freeper]

I'm sorry. Too many zeros. Depending on the year it seems to range between 15 and 25 million in growth. This is a recent article on Church growth:

Vatican stats: Catholic Church growing, especially in Asia, Africa

[William Terrell]

I cannot accept the idea of a God who loves the whole world and then chooses people to be saved or go to the lake of fire. No one can convince me that God is like this.

Romans 9:14What shall we say then? Is there unrighteousness with God? God forbid.

Romans 9:15For he saith to Moses, I will have mercy on whom I will have mercy, and I will have compassion on whom I will have compassion.

Romans 9:16So then it is not of him that willeth, nor of him that runneth, but of God that sheweth mercy.

Romans 9:17For the scripture saith unto Pharaoh, Even for this same purpose have I raised thee up, that I might shew my power in thee, and that my name might be declared throughout all the earth.

Romans 9:18Therefore hath he mercy on whom he will have mercy, and whom he will he hardeneth.

Romans 9:19Thou wilt say then unto me, Why doth he yet find fault? For who hath resisted his will?

Romans 9:20Nay but, O man, who art thou that repliest against God? Shall the thing formed say to him that formed it, Why hast thou made me thus?

Romans 9:21Hath not the potter power over the clay, of the same lump to make one vessel unto honour, and another unto dishonour?

Romans 9:22What if God, willing to shew his wrath, and to make his power known, endured with much longsuffering the vessels of wrath fitted to destruction:

Romans 9:23And that he might make known the riches of his glory on the vessels of mercy, which he had afore prepared unto glory

---

Matthew 13:37He answered and said unto them, He that soweth the good seed is the Son of man;

Matthew 13:38The field is the world; the good seed are the children of the kingdom; but the tares are the children of the wicked one;

Matthew 13:39The enemy that sowed them is the devil; the harvest is the end of the world; and the reapers are the angels.

[xzins]

As a pastor, I’m a realist.

The only number I’m interested in is how many have planted their butts in the seats on any given Sunday.

There might be 250 million movie goers in America, but the only ones Spiderman 3 producers are interested in are those who actually watch their show. All the rest are just a curious statistic.

[Uri’el-2012]

Meaning Calvinism? I cannot accept the idea of a God who loves the whole world and then chooses people to be saved or go to the lake of fire. No one can convince me that God is like this.

I would be careful with Calvinism, it reminds me too much of Fred Phelps and his “God Hates Fags” idea.

22 posted on 05/27/2007 10:15:39 PM MDT by Truth_will_rule_eventually

Only if you believe that the same Elohim
who created the universe is not omniscient.

Perhaps you define your god in your own image.

b'shem Yah'shua

[GoLightly]

Meaning Calvinism? I cannot accept the idea of a God who loves the whole world and then chooses people to be saved or go to the lake of fire. No one can convince me that God is like this.

Do you worship God or are creating a god in the image you find worthy of your worship? Whether or not God's plan is "fair" or not is not ours to determine, because we are not God.

I would be careful with Calvinism, it reminds me too much of Fred Phelps and his “God Hates Fags” idea.

If you see Calvinism in Phelps actions, you don't seem to have a clue about Calvinism.

[amihow]

IMHO the Church can grow and prevent losing members to secularism and other religions IF the bishops all over the world would do one thing.

That thing is to teach the power of God, Jesus as God and the facts about the supernatural power of the sacraments of the Church. It would be difficult for one who knows in the depths of his/her being about the Real Presence in the Eucharist to leave the only church which offers it.

A side issue is to teach people about the fact that all bishops, all priests and even the pope may be flawed, is that which requires submission of mind. We do not worship or idolize them as people. We just respect the offices.

A

[Nihil Obstat]

great post! God bless you with your vocation.

[ears_to_hear]

So then it is nothing “special” to be chosen?

Poor God, he sits at the mercy of men.

BTW didn’t the scripture say FEW are chosen?

[marshmallow]

Doesn't that sound a little contradictory to you? The church gets smaller but evangelism grows?

It might sound contradictory if I accepted the Osteen/Warren "butts on seats" model of Church health. Unfortunately, it's not a numbers game.

Look what just twelve apostles accomplished. Look at what just one man, St. Paul, accomplished in terms of evangelization. A small fervent nucleus of believers is extremely powerful.

If the church is getting smaller, then the evangelism is failing.

Falling numbers is due to the apostasy of those who formerly professed the faith, not failing evangelization. Furthermore, it's localized to specific regions of the world. In particular, the secular, materialistic West. Other regions are experiencing growth and a boom in evangelization. Watch China.

Throughout history, numbers have waxed and waned. It will be that way until the end of time. Scripture itself tells us that a significant number of Jesus' own followers quit due to difficulties in accepting some of His teachings.

Waiting for the Catholic Church to disappear and die is the very definition of a fool's errand.

[Uri’el-2012]

"T"

Good to see you again.

Aaronic Blessing:

May the Lord bless you and keep you:
The Lord make his Face shine upon you:
and be gracious to you:
The Lord lift up His countenance upon you,
and give you peace.

b'shem Yah'shua

[NYer]

A LOT has changed since this article was written in 2003, especially the reception of some of the most powerful Protestant theologians into the Catholic Church. Why are you posting it now?

[wagglebee]

Not to mention that in 2003, the Pope was very frail and unable to be as involved as he once was. Benedict is being incredibly forceful and that is uniting the Church.

[baa39]

“Bad bishops are being replaced - finally!”

This is the root of the problem and my biggest concern. We can count the number of good bishops in the USA on about one hand, so I’m curious how you see the situation improving? Do you mean that Pope Benedict is appointing orthodox bishops to replace the liberal and homosexual ones who are gradually reaching retirement age?

And how can we recover from disasters like Mahony, Brown, Skylstad, etc, who have possibly sent millions of people on the path of ignorance or heresy, who will now be rearing their children with these same errors?

[baa39]

Thanks, M.

“...and the gates of Hell shall not prevail against it.”

[vladimir998]

You wrote:

“This is the root of the problem and my biggest concern. We can count the number of good bishops in the USA on about one hand, so I’m curious how you see the situation improving?”

There are MORE orthodox bishops now then ten years ago an dthey are much younger than the orthodox bishops of ten years ago as well. They will be around for many years. Archbishop Burke will be an active bishop (baring some unexpected death or illness) for many years.

“Do you mean that Pope Benedict is appointing orthodox bishops to replace the liberal and homosexual ones who are gradually reaching retirement age?”

It is more than that. The actual pool of priests to draw bishops from is more solidly orthodox than what existed just a few years ago. In many diocese, you’ll discover that the young priests are more traditional and orthodox than their aged bishops.

“And how can we recover from disasters like Mahony, Brown, Skylstad, etc, who have possibly sent millions of people on the path of ignorance or heresy, who will now be rearing their children with these same errors?”

Simple. We will let them die, be replaced, and begin anew. We’ve done it before. We can do it again because God is our support. Think of 16th century Vienna, Austria. For 20 years there was not a single ordination to the priesthood. Not one. Sounds like a bad diocese to me. That situation changed. Mahoney is a disgrace - but only a temporary one. He will die or be removed. His replacement or even his replacement’s replacement will be better. It is the way of things.

[NYer]

Not to mention that in 2003, the Pope was very frail and unable to be as involved as he once was. Benedict is being incredibly forceful and that is uniting the Church.

Yes, of course. The posting of this 4 year old story to a current FR thread by freeper Gamecock, is nothing more than wishful and delusional thinking. In reality, just the opposite is true, as evidenced by the recent migrations of several notable Protestant theologians. And that does not include the flood of ECUSA members into the Catholic Church, post ordination of an openly gay bishop.

[baa39]

I have seen some evidence of what you say, you have given me some confidence that the pieces fit together. We certainly have a way to go, but if the seminaries get cleaned up, and young, good, devout men are allowed again to enter the priesthood, it will certainly change. Thanks, you have cheered me up a bit!

[livius]

My feeling is that if the Protestants have great Catholic theologians who have become Protestants, let them tell us who they are. The problem is that they don’t have any. They have only weirdos who at least are honest enough to leave the Church.

On the other hand, we are stuck with heretics who won’t leave because they know (a) the Church is their best publicity platform and (b) it’s where the Xerox machines are (as the odious Rosemary Reuther of Boston College once said - or maybe it was some other flaming heretic, I don’t recall).

Let them go to the Protestants. It would be much more honest on their part, and then the Protestants would have to pay their salaries.