Posted on 07/01/2011 3:48:08 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Over the next year you are going to hear a lot of rhetoric about Obama and how no one can beat him. About how weak the Republican field of candidates are, and how they are too weak to make a difference. Obama has likely already lost in 2012. He just doesn't know it yet, and those around him are unwilling to tell him.
I am going to go out on a limb (although it is a rather large solid limb from where I am sitting), and tell you that you have little to worry about(unless John McCain gets back in and wins the nomination). What's in the pot is Obama's Presidential goose.
Here's the rationale:
The economic outlook is weakening. It is weakening rather quickly. This weakening is going to show it's ugly head in the Summer and Fall of 2012. Corporate profit growth, what I believe is the key to employment growth is weakening rather rapidly. When year over year growth rates fall below 6%, private sector employment shrinks. Corporate profits today are only slightly higher than in the third quarter of 2006. With six million fewer private sector employees working today to get to the same level of profits, there is no hope to return those jobs under the current US economic structure. The rate of profit growth needed to return all those folks to work is simply not going to happen.
First quarter corporate profits were released this week. Year over year corporate profit growth slipped from 29.16% at the end of 2010 to 21.47% at the end of first quarter 2011. At this rate, we are six months from signalling a contraction in total private sector employment four quarters down the road. The growth rate was 35.37% at the end of the third quarter of 2010. This was profit growth compared to very weak quarters from the previous years. So the easy comparisons are way over.
There is nothing on the American economic horizon that would allow us to speculate that corporate profits are poised to rebound their growth over the next six months. Companies like Lowe's and Cisco and others are already drastically lowering their outlook for the rest of 2011.
Government debt, more regulations for business, Obama's administration stepping in and stopping the free movement of corporations from one state to another to improve profitability, higher fuel costs, higher food costs, and other items are just some of the reasons I feel that fewer dollars will be flowing to the bottom line, not more.
So this is what is going to turn the heat up on Obama's goose cooking as we speak. Over the next 12 months, we will hear relentlessly about the Obama recovery. We will hear about the jobs growth we have had and the Obama administration will, of course, dismiss any ideas that it is weakening. They will say it is not where they would like it, but it is headed in the right direction. They are very wrong. By surrounding himself with people that haven't a clue on what drives the private sector economy, there is no sense of cause and effect in the White House. So there are no efforts to address the problems we face in the economy. At least not real solutions that affect the real causes.
There is nothing that this administration can do in the short term to turn this around, even if they were to understand and grasp these concepts. It takes at least a year for the changes made to start to be felt within the economy. But when you have a political party such as the democrats that attacks the very item that drives job growth, and I am talking about profits, you know they do not understand. You cannot attack profits and promote job growth at the same time. At least not in the private sector.
I predict that just at the final stages of the Presidential Election cycle kick off, the often touted Obama Recovery will gasp it's last breath. The most important thing is that Obama will own this outright. The days of blaming Bush will be over. Obama may try, but we will have become immune to it's effects. He will have taken too much credit to be successful a second time at the Blame Bush game.
The Obama administration will not be able to offer any steps, plans or promises to improve the situation. If his opponents are smart, they will use snippets of his own speeches against him. The American people, once again facing higher unemployment, will have had enough. Hope for Change will not be enough.
A word or two on the Republican candidates: Those that are dropping out of the race before it has even started likely do not understand the dynamics of profits, employment growth and the economic cycle any better than Obama. So it is good they are going. If they did understand, they would realize that the last person standing in the Republican Party will be odds on favorite by September 2012.
We are simply not going to support a sitting President in office as unemployment rises. The Obama recovery was not strong enough to erase the memories of the last downturn. For most of us, these memories are painful and fresh.
While some will be shocked at the outcome for a President that was so loved by mainstream media, you will have known that Presidential goose has been cooking for months. They will blame racism, hate, greed, and anything else than can throw.
But you and I will know better.
Classic the emperor has no clothes syndrome, I love it. There aint nothin like a smack down
Uh-huh...
But...they “elected” the Klintons...twice...didn’t “they”...?????
The Community Agitators Formerly Known As ACORN have all the fraudulent votes Ubama needs lined up, as long as they can keep voter IDs out of the equation.
However, I suppose the army of regulators, green activists and communists swarming the offices of Government will balance any progress to the negative and do their damage all the way through '12.
I’m pretty sure that he is going to step aside and let Hillary run in 2012. It will allow him to double down on his leftist policies not caring about his political prospects. He will willingly take all the heat on himself in effect “martyring” himself to shelter the Dem party and its communist goals.
re: “...you are going to hear a lot of rhetoric about Obama and how no one can beat him.”
That’s so the corrupt Dem machine can rig the votes and we won’t question the counts [or be suspicious] when Zero wins.
I sure hope the states and GOP are going to be up to the task of keeping the vote clean/legit. God help us.
Preach it, Brother!
Amen, Brother!!!
FDR - four freakin' times!
That was before the Internet was in full swing, conservative talk radio (other than Rush) and before FR and other conservative sites and organizations. Plus, as much as I don’t like Bill Clinton, Barry wouldn’t make a pimple on his backside.
Good reasoning, but I have to correct one part.
For over two years, the left and their cohorts in the LSM have tried to destroy her -- to no avail.
Sarah will run, Sarah will crush the RINOs, and Sarah will go on to utterly crush the Marxist traitor (>370EV)
Yeah, as I’ve been saying (now, with slightly more confidence) Elmer Fudd could beat Obama in 2012. So it’s essential the GOP chooses well.
The Clintons had, by comparison, a roaring economy. Now, much of that was thanks to the GOP House, but this time the House can’t do much because unlike Clinton, Obama absolutely refuses to “triangulate” (good for us, bad for the country). So, I don’t think the similarities are there. By 2012, Elmer Fudd can beat Obama.
In order to get the job done that Obamajaad was sent to Washington, DC, the democrats CANNOT allow any economic growth or job creation. Their full intent is that the US be destroyed from within.
They want the US on it’s knees begging. And that’s what they intend to get.
The big question is, are we going to let them do it?
I agree totally.
The only risk of continuing the Baraqqi regime is a 3-way election where his 42% “base” could produce a Clintonian plurality win.
Baraq loses any 2-way matchup for sure.
‘It’s Not the People Who Vote that Count; It’s the People Who Count the Votes’
(...and who decides who will run and who will run against...)
not exactly tic*tac*dough...
but the little people can continue to believe as they like,,,for now...
Beating Obama is not the goal. It’s only a necessary step.
Turning back the tide of socialism is the goal.
In choosing well, the GOP first needs to understand the nature of socialism. (A hint to the GOP: socialism is cultivated in the soil of corruption itself).
The next step is to understand which of the GOP candidates will only add to the tide of socialism, either directly or through inaction.
At this point, the GOP is not even sure socialism exists. So you see how much the GOP needs to work on goals.
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