Posted on 02/18/2012 4:39:12 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
270 Electoral Votes Needed To Win
Likely GOP Votes - 224
Likely Dem Votes - 217
Tossup Votes - 97
(Excerpt) Read more at freedomslighthouse.net ...
it will all be about ohio. just like it was in 2004.
If someone could put up a picture of this map on this thread, it would be helpful.
Here’s my take- barring something unexpected, the nominee will be either Rick Santorum or Mitt Romney. There are 97 electoral votes up for grabs on this map.
Pennsylvania is a key. Obama won it by a comfortable margin last time, but is now unpopular there. But he still has the bastions of Philly and Pittsburg, which could be enough to win it again. If Rick Santorum is the nominee, he would do well, but not be guaranteed to win there. An aristocratic plutocrat like Romney wouldn’t appeal there. However, he would still have a shot.
Ohio is another state where Santorum would be a pretty good fit, and Romney far less so. Obama just narrowly won it last time and is highly unpopular there. Santorum’s Midwestern working class Catholic roots should be appealing. Romney could still win it, but as with Pennsylvania, his chances would rest entirely on being the alternative to Obama.
Wisconsin bears close watching. This summer, Governor Scott Walker faces a recall vote. The outcome of this will reflect on Republican chances this fall. Santorum would be polarizing there, while Romney would be less so. There will be a U.S. Senate race there and the likely Democrat nominee will be very polarizing.
North Carolina just barely went for Obama last time, but he will make it a top priority this year. Much population growth is in areas that are trending DemocRAT. Romney may appeal to some of its swing voters, white-collar workers and entrepreneurs who support free enterprise and don’t place importance on cultural issues. How will its Protestant Evangelicals react to a strong Catholic like Santorum? Time will tell.
Virginia bears close watching. Obama won it by more than expected against McCain and much of its population growth is from government workers. Mitt Romney might appeal to swing voters in northern Virginia. Rick Santorum is expected to appeal in the southern and western parts of the state, but these areas are strongly Protestant. Popular Governor Bob McConnell is considered a possible running mate for either candidate and he could easily tip the state to the GOP.
Iowa is the Vermont of the midwest and I expect Obama to win it. However, Santorum should be able to swing working-class Catholic Democrats to his column while winning big margins in the conservative western parts of the state, making it close. I don’t see how Romney can win here.
Obama won big here in Nevada 2008, but the state’s economy has tanked on his watch. Nevada has a significant Mormon population and Romney will have natural appeal.
He may also appeal to its white collar voters, particularly in Las Vegas. There is also Libertarian sentiment there. If Santorum is the nominee, we can probably write it off.
Colorado also went for Obama by more than expected. Romney may have appeal, both in the Denver suburbs and at the western edge of the state, which has a higher-than-average population of Mormons. Rick Santorum might have some appeal to Hispanics, who are overwhelmingly Catholic. I still give Obama a slight advantage there.
A few other states could tip the other way than what they’re currently leaning. Florida leans our way, but is very unpredictable. We can’t count on it. New Hampshire went for Obama comfortably before and another win there can’t be ruled out. Maine went heavily Republican in 2010 and Romney may appeal there. Montana almost voted for Obama in 2008 and he’ll try to flip it to offset losing Indiana, which he unexpectedly won. Democrats claim that Arizona only voted for McCain out of home-state loyalty and will spend heavily there this year. Running mates could put in play states which currently aren’t. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie probably can’t tip his home state in spite of his popularity there, but he would make it competitive, forcing Obama to spend money in its costly media market. Same with former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, who has won statewide against considerable odds twice.
Colorado Obama +9% to tossup
Florida Obama +3% to GOP
Indiana Obama +1% to GOP
Iowa Obama +10% to tossup
Nevada Obama +12% to tossup
New Hampshire Obama +10% to GOP
North Carolina Obama +0.33% to tossup
Ohio Obama +5% to tossup
Pennsylvania Obama +10% to tossup
Virginia Obama +6% to tossup
Wisconsin Obama +14% to tossup
I'm surprised about the difference between Wisconsin (14 point shift) vs. North Carolina (less than a point shift).
Great posting.
I wouldn’t count too heavily on Michigan if I were Obama either. Things have changed a great deal here since 08. Our voter ID law is in full force and we have a secretary of state who sees her primary job as protecting the integrity of our elections.
Tea party sentiment is strong here and the GOP ran the table in 2010. The democrats lost many seats and didn’t pick up a single seat above the county level. The fact that Santorum leads Romney here shows a sea change in sentiment.
Too bad we have to share this great land with those who loath it. i.e. Øbama-bots
JMHO
Thanks to you hard working Freepers who posted this.
What about Arizona?
Obummer is not well liked here in PA. It was Hitlery country in the ‘08 Primary. PA is not going to be an easy feat for him this go round in the General. The state is controlled top to bottom by the GOP so the Rats won’t have anywhere the same help they had with Fast Eddie Rendell running things. There machine doesn’t exist anymore.
I know things get confusing due to polls, msm, dem lies.
Still, I voted in a local fire commisioner election in a blue state today, in the few minutes I was there people were making anti Obama comments and saying they’ll be back to vote in November.
I have to believe the swing voters who elected Obama are now angry and scared.
Wisconsin also did major shifts towards republicans since 2008-we’ll be watching the recall effort and pray Gov Walker gets to keep his job! Those Union thugs are a nightmare and need squashing!
This is not a map, however it contains a lot of good info-
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/ccad.phtml
Count Wisconsin republican. Bank on it.
Thanks for the info. I have some family there and in Virginia and they say it’s going to be really tough for Barry to win no matter what the poles may say. Some local folks who moved here from Ohio say the same thing about Ohio.
poles??
how about, polls??
“Iowa is the Vermont of the midwest and I expect Obama to win it”
Can you explain to me why Iowa voted for Obama (and is likely to again)?
I always thought rural areas like alot of Iowa was populated with conservative, family people.
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