Posted on 12/27/2014 1:37:14 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
I’ve been dismissive of Jim Webb’s prospects for winning the Democratic presidential nomination. But Jacob Heilbrunn’s column on Webb, and Steve’s commentary on that column, made me take another look.
On second look, I still don’t see Webb getting very far.
Will female Democrats favor Webb — currently in his third marriage and the author of what some might consider a sexist novel — over Hillary Clinton? Not likely.
Will African-Americans favor Webb — so proud of his Scotch-Irish heritage — over the wife of “our first black president”? Not likely.
Will white southern Democrats favor Webb? Arguably. But he’s going to be running as a left-wing populist, and many white southern Democrats remain moderate.
Will wealthy Democrats back Webb? No. They can forgive populist rhetoric if they know it’s insincere, but they can’t be sure that Webb doesn’t mean what he says.
Suppose, however, that Hillary Clinton’s campaign implodes. In this scenario, we can expect Elizabeth Warren to enter. Warren would then become the favored candidate of females, radicals, and many other leftists. Even the wealthy would probably favor Warren over Webb, since she comes across as less than sincere.
If the scenario I’ve just described sounds familiar to old-timers, it’s because it resembles what happened in 1968. Going into the campaign season, President Johnson was the heavy favorite (as Clinton is now) but many on the left were urging Robert Kennedy to run (as they are now urging Warren to do).
Kennedy lacked the guts to challenge LBJ, but Eugene McCarthy was up for the fight. Though McCarthy didn’t defeat Johnson in the New Hampshire primary, he did well enough to cause Kennedy to enter the race. Soon thereafter, Johnson announced that he would neither seek nor accept his party’s nomination.
I would expect Warren to follow Kenney’s example and enter the race if Clinton were to withdraw or falter in 2016. Warren’s challenge will resemble Kennedy’s in terms of ideology, though she will be nothing like the campaign trail dynamo Kennedy was in 1968.
With Johnson out of the race and with two left-wing antiwar candidates fighting for the nomination, Vice President Hubert Humphrey announced his candidacy and attempted to rally the party establishment around him. Would Joe Biden do the same in 2016? I believe he would.
Whether Webb finds himself in a two-way race against Clinton, a two-way race against Warren, or a three-way race against Warren and Clinton or Biden, I consider him very unlikely to prevail.
I don’t deny that Clinton, Warren, and Biden all have serious deficiencies as campaigners. Webb, though he hasn’t shown himself to be a great campaigner, possesses the authenticity Clinton and Warren lack, and is not a bumbling windbag like Talkin’ Joe Biden.
But the logic of the race in a party where identity counts for so much is badly stacked against Webb.
Sickening just sickening, the hacks
From both parties that think they are qualified to be president.
The "identity politics" may come into play in the middle. Women in the middle who don swing either left or right would be more likely to vote a Republican woman than man.>
Also, she's a Vet. What other Conservative choices do we have that have earned that qualification?
If that’s the ticket, I’m in.
That would be true from the left, but Conservatives would vote for her, and I like her chances of winning the middle.
Yes!
I absolutely and positively cannot stand her. Comes across as a complete fake.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gGjAHnlgQ38
She simply is not Presidential caliber, period, obviously, by a long shot - and she’ll only be a junior member of Congress to boot at ‘16. I am glad she won her seat, hope she stays a long time - but she’s not Prez material.
That is my dream ticket!
Cruz can not, and would not be elected president. I won’t say it’s impossible, but it IS extremely unlikely.
He’s an awesome guy, and I agree with him on 99% of the issues, but he lacks the necessary charisma/looks/charm to get the support of our increasingly shallow minded voters. Sad, but true.
I know it sucks, but that’s the kind of country we are living in now. If he’s on the ballot, I will happily vote for him with enthusiasm, but he will NOT win in the general election.
Folks can flame me, call me names, and do whatever they like, but that won’t change that fact...
If Hillary Clinton is the best the Democrats have, they are pitiful.
Too bad he’s a scumbag.
I was in the Navy with a guy from Scotland. I once referred to him as being “Scotch” and he said “Scotch is effing drink.”
I agree with you. Good points. Unfortunately.
Very interesting piece.
I was a McCarthy supporter in those days. LOL!
Humphrey, a veteran party wheelhorse, almost won the election by rallying elements of the old FDR coalition such as unions, bringing in much of the black electorate and, in the closing days, winning over a big chunk of the anti-war Left. I can't see Sir Gaffe-Alot doing the same.
In 1979, Eugene McCarthy addressed the Young Americans for Freedom's national convention. As he was introduced, there were cries from the audience of "Joe! Joe! Joe!" A number of attendees wanted a different McCarthy.
She’s not even that well known in Iowa where people are much better politically informed than most states. Give her a few terms to establish herself.
BTW, I moved to Iowa five years ago. Joni was the only candidate I gave money to.
She has a pretty creepy laugh. Everyone here hopes that she gets a coach to improve her presentation. She is not a phony, but she is very low key, almost passive, as if too much under the control of her handlers.
That said, she now has Tom Harkin’s seat. WOW!
But then again, we're still two years off, so let's see.
Joe had long since passed by then - never had the opportunity to fight his national villanization by the MSM.
Gene had a vagueness about him that liberals loved in 1968, but could not organize a two-car funeral. Neither can the current POTUS. They are sort of alike, but Gene was a nice guy.
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