Posted on 09/21/2015 2:21:51 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Last week’s CNN debate stirred the pot in what has been a roller coaster of an early primary season. A post-debate CNN poll showed Carly Fiorina surging into second place behind Donald Trump (a 12% jump since early September,) followed closely by Ben Carson. Right now, it’s an outsider’s race—but how long can it last?
The tendency to wax and wane has been a hallmark of the GOP’s “outsider” candidates. Their bumps and slides have had less to do with their budding policy plans, and more to do with how they’ve handled themselves under the extreme pressure of the national spotlight. Trump (for all his faults and foibles,) Fiorina, and Carson have all found their niche in the conversation, and if that was all it takes to become president, we could vote tomorrow and eliminate the primary state middlemen.
Alas.
As time wears on, primary voters (who are on the whole completely different animals compared to general election voters) will increasingly demand more and more substance from these candidates, and some pundits cite this as the reason the “outsiders” will become supplanted by more politically experienced candidates.
Erick Erickson has an interesting piece today laying out the case for a final showdown between Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. Neither are “outsiders,” but both conform to the idea that we need a “fresh face” at the forefront of conservative politics.
Here’s his analysis:
If we look at traditional campaign data, which under the smoke and veneer of Campaign 2016 still matters, what we will find is that Ted Cruz is laying down a hell of a ground game and has tons of cash with not nearly the burn rate that even Jeb Bush has. Cruz stands to profit the most from the collapse of Carson, Fiorina, and Trump — all of whom are playing on the outsider advantages right now. Those advantages will start to go away as more traditional and necessary campaign tactics and strategies kick in like, for example, ballot access.
Cruz can get himself on ballots and get signatures collected. He can make a play through the SEC primary better than many of the other candidates can. He captures the conservative outsider angst while also being a more credible candidate long term than any of the other outsiders. Cruz has, after all, won an election and has a professional campaign team.
While conservatives will gravitate rapidly to Cruz, the more establishment oriented people who recognize the party still needs a fresh face and chage will likely go to Marco Rubio. Already I’m hearing that both Walker and Bush donors are looking at Rubio as their next pick. Rubio has the highest positives of any of the candidates and is, in fact, the one Republican that the Democrats desperately fear because of his perceived ability to attract women, young voters, and Hispanics.
Likewise, Rubio has an experienced team that will be able to navigate ballot access laws, has consistently high polling in a volatile (and inaccurate) polling year, and did I mention just how positively people view him. Rubio also is running a tighter campaign with a slower burn rate than some of the others.
It’s an interesting analysis of a split that has already shown itself in discussions amongst conservatives who are desperately seeking Not Another Romney©. The same CNN poll cited above has Marco Rubio at 11% and Ted Cruz at 6%, which puts them behind the front-runners but nowhere near the troubled territory that Jindal and Walker have found themselves in. I think Erick is right, here; if you consider the field as it stands, and look at who can lay claim to both shining media moments and the capacity to both understand and relay complex policy points, it follows that Cruz and Rubio should land on top.
I disagree with Erick’s use of the word “establishment” in connection with Rubio’s future prospects, only because it implies that Rubio is empirically less conservative than Cruz. Rubio will appeal to more “establishment” sources of funding and promotion not because he has morphed into the fresh face of moderate Republicanism, but because his tactics embrace a more innovative philosophy that reaches beyond the conservative base and into new communities and voting demographics. That being said, Cruz’s ability to reach and ignite the base is nearly unparalleled, which will serve as a boon once ground efforts truly kick off.
They both have the ability to inspire, and they both represent “something new” in terms of GOP presidential politics. It’s an interesting thought game: who would you choose? Give your preferred candidate a click in the poll below, then head to the comments for the inevitable debate!
Rubio is an invertebrate - would be great for the GOPe voters, of which I’m not.
Cruz all the way. I voted for him in the Senate primary. I voted for him in the Senate general election, and I would love to vote FOR him in the Presidential primary and again general.
Agree - Trump.
TED CRUZ 88.58% (1,287 votes)
MARCO RUBIO 11.42% (166 votes)
Total Votes: 1,453
Rubio - NEVER. He still has that gang of 8 stinch on his shoes.
Some have reported him saying one thing to Hispanic groups in Spanish and the opposite to groups in English.
Even in some English interviews, Rubio has slippery on his support for amnesty.
Rubio - NEVER.
Carly and Carson were (somewhat) useful tools, with the express task of taking Trump down.
Carson is already fading. Carly will too. The GOPEstablishment has no intention of either being their nominee.
Cruz. Not even close for me.
Both support raising the H-1B visa cap by 500% and further eviscerating the American middle class.
No sale.
Trump, because the others will lose.
Cruz 88.75%
Rubio 11.25%
Only for people who set their DVRs for "Entertainment Tonight."
Agree. Trump. And the “Make America Great Again” hats say made in the USA.I have to look at clothes I have had for years to read made in USA.
Trump, and whoever he feels is best for vp.
Go freep the poll Rube the Boobio is catching Cruz
1796 total votes.
Immigration is my main reason to consider Rubio.
I speculated Rubio would be better at negotiating with Congress and get half of what he wants that way.
I speculate Cruz would not be good at negotiating with Congress. Congress would know he would veto things and the House would never over-ride his vetos. So no need to negotiate.
Cruz is more likely than Rubio to reverse executive orders.
I’d like to see both of them refuse to request a raise in the national debt. Then selectively not pay the salaries of the alphabet agency staff and just let them all go because there was no money to pay them.
Since I’m in love with ground games, I end up siding with Cruz.
I see both of them hoping to not peak until 2016. Big mistake for the amateurs to peak too early. The 24/7 media will abandon the peaker of the month as soon as a new person comes along to boost their ratings. Rubio and Cruz are really not well known yet. They hope they boost ratings in 2016, not 2015.
How come nobody ever commented on what Rubio said at the last debate? That he is only running for the POTUS, and is not running for reelection for Senator.
You mean versus Rand Paul?
Rand Paul said that too? I thought he got the law changed in KY to allow him to run for both seats?
No, I meant versus him running for both.
Not long ago, Marco Rubio of Florida lost in a poll of Florida Republicans to Donald Trump.
If the Republicans of Florida, who know Marco Rubio best, don’t want to support him, why should anyone else?
As for Ted Cruz, his poor showing in the polls after two debates is not good news either for himself or for Conservatives.
Not only is Ted Cruz the favorite candidate of Conservatives, he’s also the most anti-establishment candidate, since he defied the Boehner/McConnell axis of the status quo by shutting down the government.
Maybe if Ted Cruz had dared to say something even mildly unflattering about Donald Trump instead of blindly supporting him, Donald Trump might have attacked Ted (’’That face!’’ or ‘’That ivy-league education!’’) and Ted could have struck back a la Carly Fiorina and been in her place now, second in the polls.
Until the next Republican debate at the end of October, the media is likely to ignore the Republicans in order to spend its days manufacturing new Democratic-themed brouhahas involving Joe Biden and his Donald-Trump-like gaffes, Hillary and her latest scandals, and Bernie Sanders’s growing poll numbers — all leading up the first Democratic debate in mid-October, followed by non-stop bloviating about who won the debate.
By the time the spotlight gets back to the Republicans, who is most likely to be ahead in the race? Can Donald Trump survive not having non-stop media coverage? Can Ben Carson overcome his public hatred of Muslims and his extreme pacifism, as demonstrated by his non-support for the Afghanistan war, which even Obama supports? And can Carly Fiorina keep being as politically astute and as successful at attracting new supporters as she’s been up until now?
And will Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz continue to be so irrelevant that by the end of October polls like this one will be even more foolish than they are now?
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