Posted on 09/29/2015 7:21:03 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The funniest part of this story isn’t that they’re obsessing over an online predictions website. The funniest part is that Jeb’s standing in that market really might be the best argument they have left to donors to stay aboard while this ship drifts aimlessly towards Iowa and New Hampshire. If PredictIt is for Jeb, who can be against him?
Except PredictIt isn’t for Jeb anymore.
For the past week, Jeb Bush’s campaign advisers have been using a new data point to convince nervous donors that he’s still the candidate to beat: Bush’s lead in the political prediction markets.
Just one problem: Beginning Sunday night, PredictIt, the biggest of the online sites and the one referenced last week by top Bush advisers and confidants, placed Florida Sen. Marco Rubio ahead of Bush at the head of the GOP pack…
“I don’t know if it’s panic or paranoia in Miami, but they are losing [Scott] Walker people to Marco, and if you say what’s true, they get mad,” said one Bush donor, who spoke to POLITICO on the condition of anonymity. “I think it’s just reflective of what’s been going on for the past month or so and the way the race, at least in the establishment lane, has shifted. It’s really Jeb or Marco now. Marco’s fundraising has picked up, and Jeb’s has stayed flat.”
Another Bush donor invited to Miami, assessing the state of anxiety within the former Florida governor’s operation on a scale of 1 to 10, put the panic level at a “6 or 7.”
PredictIt has Rubio at 38 cents, Bush at 35, and Trump at 19. Interestingly, both Carly Fiorina and John Kasich are slightly higher than Ted Cruz, presumably because they’re more palatable to establishment Republicans. As for Jeb, I think the reason his team’s worked up over a predictions market isn’t just the fact that it’s a rare bright spot in his campaign fortunes lately, it’s that inevitability has always been his core argument to donors. Skip the more dynamic centrists like Christie and the more electable center-righties like Rubio, Team Bush argues, and sign up with the guy whom we all know is going to win the nomination because that’s what Bushes do. Once the inevitability argument fades, all that’s left is the idea that Jeb’s financial advantage is so enormous that he’ll be able to effectively buy the nomination if need be. He can out-advertise and out-organize Rubio because his budget’s bigger. But increasingly that won’t be true either: As noted, Rubio’s already picking up some of Walker’s infrastructure. If and when Christie drops out, some of that will likely gravitate to Rubio too as the last best chance of the “Not Jeb” crowd. In fact, a weird point of commonality between Jeb and his nemesis Trump is that both of them rely heavily on the idea that they’re going to win as an argument for why they should win. That’s not true for Jeb anymore, and if Trump’s polls start slipping, it won’t be true for him either. The difference is, Trump will still have a populist base once his aura of invincibility disappears. What will Jeb have?
He’ll have this, I guess.
Yes, you’re reading that correctly. Even the famously unpopular Chris Christie has a higher net favorable rating among Republicans now than Jeb Bush does. Trump, who was deep underwater among GOP voters four months ago, does better than both of them. Bush’s huge ad budget might change that, but will it change it so much as to erase Rubio’s enormous advantage in this metric?
I wonder if, at this point, Jeb’s best hope isn’t for Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy to cave to conservatives and produce a shutdown over Planned Parenthood this fall. That’s risky in light of the CW that any potential Republican nominee will suffer by association with his party in the aftermath of that, but if Bush condemned the tactic as irresponsible, maybe it’d channel some of the frustration GOP centrists feel over brinksmanship and galvanize support for him as the “adult in the room” or whatever. The conservative base would hate him even more than they do now, but they weren’t voting for him to begin with. His problem at the moment is that he’s being overlooked by the center-right voters he covets. Denouncing a shutdown might get their attention. And a shutdown could be especially agonizing for Rubio, who’s trying to balance his appeal to the center as an electable moderate with his appeal to the right as a guy they can trust to hold the conservative line — on, er, everything except immigration. That’s another reason why Ted Cruz is eager to leverage the shutdown debate in the Senate: He knows what his position is on this and he also knows that Rubio’s going to get burned no matter which side he takes, alienating either centrists or conservatives. If Rubio backs a shutdown, the donor class will be horrified and Jeb will benefit. If he opposes a shutdown, the base will be horrified and Cruz will benefit. Presumably he’ll oppose the shutdown, partly because Bush is (momentarily) a bigger threat to him than Cruz, partly because it’s more important for him to make donors happy right now when the field is still this big, and partly because he doesn’t want the headache of defending a shutdown in the general election if he’s the nominee. But we’ll see.
Your exit question: If Jeb’s big financial advantage is going to translate into rosy poll numbers eventually, how come it hasn’t already? Because he’s the big ad spender of the campaign so far, as it turns out.
Mark Murray
✔ @mmurraypolitics
Look who's now leading the TV-ad spending race. Jeb Bush (Super
PAC, camp) -- and it all started this month
3:01 PM - 29 Sep 2015
Is anyone familiar with how this works? I took a look at the site and the prices appear to be too high. For instance, if you add up all the “sell” prices it comes to way over $1. In other words, if you sold one share for each candidate at the listed prices you’d be guaranteed to make money no matter who wins. Got to be something I’m not understanding.
The Republican nominee will be whomever the GOPe selects. The whole primary process with its new rules just for Bush and this election cycle is rigged for Bush so that he doesn’t even have to show much voter support at all to become the Nominee and Candidate.
How dose trump’s socialized medicine plan sit with you? I didn’t want 0’s and I sure don’t want trumps! Nearly 70% of Americans don’t want it, he is tone deaf or didn’t read the poll numbers or see the protest. VERY STUPID to propose it at all, to me that and being PRO AMNESTY are the kiss of death for a candidate for me. Along with being Pro abortion and giving homosexual special treatment in the Military. Or any where in the USA. It is UNCONSTITUTIONAL. Don’t give a flip what the stupid USSC says.
Cruz is in the Senate standing up for America and fighting hard...
There are people in the House doing the same thing, we just got Boehner kicked out...
Trump is leading the way with getting people to stop the p.c.b.s. and standing up and saying it like it is, there are more people doing that now...
And soon your going to see a Trump/Cruz ticket where Cruz as V.P. will be sitting up in the Senate and the rest of them will have to look up at him....says a lot in that statement!!!
The Gopes don’t care whether the conservatives eat their crap sandwich or not. They do not intend to win the election- better- they intend to not win the election. Bush is to be nominated in repayment for the Bush family service to the GOPe. Beyond that Jeb does not want to be President and the GOPe doesn’t want Jeb or anyone other than the Democrat to be President. It would disturb their racket. The GOPe loves Mrs. Bill because she is authentic Organized Crime and therefore totally predictable and better to make deals with that enrich them.
he’ll be dead to everyone after Trump gets done with him
Ah yes, found it. Looks like the site takes 10% off any profit you make, which would explain the inflated prices.
Rubio is a fraud and a phoney..he can’t even show up to vote!
Watching rooooobio on Hannity now and he was just asked if it was time for the turtle to be gone and he looked like he choked on something.No dice.
Begin the FReeper statist mantra “If you don’t support Rubio you want Hillary to win”.
He practically went “uh, uh, uh, I don’t, uh, you know, uh”
Rubio...”the clown”!
The rules for the primaries are set for this cycle and can only be changed by the RNC because the primaries are a creature of the RNC. It doesn’t much matter what gets accomplished in and out of Congress. Those rules could be foiled if Trump is the only conservative candidate after NH or if he manages to deny Bush majorities in primaries in states like Connecticut and Rhode Island.
Who is your ideal?
Who is your ideal?
Columba may need another shopping trip to Paris and won’t get one if Jebbers keeps spending on ads. I always thought Jebbers/rube was a bait and switch. Rubio as one of the gang of 8 was a deal breaker for me. He’s my senator and I won’t vote for him. I worked jeb’s governor campaign years ago before I knew better and I won’t vote for him either. Both are a vote for Hillary.
I don’t think so this time. Instead of 4 million sitting home they will have 25 million sit home and the party will collapse in on itself like a Cake in an oven. They can’t afford how that will “look.” They will have no fake opposition party to give the appearance of choice. Rove and the gangs are having serious come to JESUS meetings on how to limit damage that will be inflicted by Trump/Cruz/Carson presidencies. Unless we are all being played just from a campaign funding aspect and TPTB have already told Hillary she is to be sworn in no matter what and then what difference will it make.
That’s it right there...
“I always thought Jebbers/rube was a bait and switch.”
Thank you Donald Trump!
Love him or hate him, Trump has taken the anointed choice of the GOPe and stomped him into the dirt. Defined him as the low energy lightweight that he is and sent him to single digit land.
Cruz, Lt Col Allen West
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