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Donald Trump’s Struggle in Wisconsin Is About Demographics, Not Momentum
The New York Times' The Upshot ^ | April 4, 2016 | Nate Cohn

Posted on 04/04/2016 5:07:43 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Donald Trump has had a rough couple of weeks. He said he supported punishing women for abortion and then walked it back; his campaign manager was arrested on a charge of battery; he retweeted an unflattering picture of his main opponent’s wife, Heidi Cruz.

And the polls show him trailing by a wide margin in Wisconsin, which holds its primary on Tuesday. For some people, it’s a sign that Mr. Trump is finally losing ground.

But his problem in Wisconsin is mainly about the state’s demographics, not self-inflicted wounds. Even a 10-percentage-point loss there wouldn’t necessarily indicate any shift against him.

The state has always looked as if it would be one of Mr. Trump’s worst. This was true even before the primaries began. Polling by Civis Analytics and Marquette Law both showed Mr. Trump faring much worse there than nationally, just as was the case in neighboring Iowa, where he wound up losing to Ted Cruz.

The results of other primaries have consistently pointed toward Mr. Trump’s weakness in Wisconsin. We’ve frequently published articles using models to predict the results of contests based on demographics, and both models — one after the Super Tuesday primaries and one after the March 15 primaries — projected Wisconsin to be one of Mr. Trump’s worst remaining states....

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Wisconsin; Campaign News; Parties; State and Local
KEYWORDS: cruz; tedcruz; trump; wisconsin

1 posted on 04/04/2016 5:07:43 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

whites are the new n-words so actually, Trump is scoring very big in the black community , my negroes


2 posted on 04/04/2016 5:09:45 PM PDT by ghosthost
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Donald Trump's Struggle in Wisconsin Is About Demographics, Not Momentum

Trump is Toast and Good Riddance

Cruz, Clinton lead respective races in new poll (Wisconsin)

Donald Trump's Poll Numbers Collapse as General Election Looms

Insiders: Ted Cruz wil capture Wisconsin - Democrats expect a Bernie Sanders victory

Trump is collapsing in Wisconsin: And that's bad for his delgate math

Fox Business Network Poll: Cruz leads in Wisconsin

Trump Facing Inconvenient Defeat in Wisconsin

Latest Marquette poll in Wisconsin shows Cruz pulling away: Cruz 40%; Trump 30%; Kasich 20%

Poll suggests Donald Trump just stumbled into Scott Walker town

Donald Trump berates Scott Walker for not raising taxes in Wisconsin

Marquette Law School (WI) - Cruz 40%, Trump 30%, Kasich 21%

Polls: Cruz Leading in Wisconsin, Closing in California, Pennsylvania

Cruz expanding lead in Wisconsin

Free Beacon Poll: Cruz Expands Lead over Trump in Wisconsin (Cruz 36, Trump 31, Kasich 21)

Trump's Dirty War Losing Steam: CRUZ Leads Fresh WI Poll - and Now Within 3 Points Nationally

It's on, Wisconsin: Cruz, Trump in virtual tie

Glenn Grotham endorses Ted Cruz, blasts Donald Trump (Wisconsin)

Trump Fever Has Broken: It's Over for the Donald

Scott Walker: Nominee Brokered Convention Someone 'Not Currently Running' (Fake Cruz Endorsement)

Crow will be served tomorrow.

3 posted on 04/04/2016 5:10:29 PM PDT by Extremely Extreme Extremist (Rafael Cruz: Canadian-born, Cuban ancestry, ineligible for POTUS)
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To: Extremely Extreme Extremist

Nice work.


4 posted on 04/04/2016 5:14:28 PM PDT by Souled_Out (Our hope is in the power of God working through the hearts of people.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Over the last few years Wisconsin Republicans have been throughout the ringer.

They have been tested and they are immune to delusion.

5 posted on 04/04/2016 5:18:41 PM PDT by Slyfox (Donald Trump's First Principle is the Art of the Deal)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

That lying dirty media...oh, wait...


6 posted on 04/04/2016 5:27:45 PM PDT by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: Extremely Extreme Extremist

Very professional indeed.


7 posted on 04/04/2016 5:31:21 PM PDT by Bogie (Just a coincidence?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

According to Krauthammer on BOR tonight there aren’t enough poorly educated Whites in America to elect Trump President. Krauthammer says women and minorities will not vote for Trump and if he is the candidate he would lose to Hillary in a landslide of historical proportions.

So, it’s a safe bet “women and minorities”(or “educated” Whites supposedly)won’t for Ted Cruz either. No way. No how.

Based on that, look for a Paul Ryan nomination this summer. And for Paul Ryan to “lose to Hillary in a landslide of historical proportions.”

America is in deep, deep trouble folks.


8 posted on 04/04/2016 5:32:38 PM PDT by TTFlyer
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I thought Trump was ahead of Cruz in earlier Wisconsin polling.

The demographics in Wisconsin haven't changed since that earlier polling.

How can this NOT be about momentum?

9 posted on 04/04/2016 5:49:57 PM PDT by Washi (Don't blame me. I voted for the conservative.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Beauty Queen with Terminal Illness Pleads with WI Voters to Vote for Donald Trump (4-4-16)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9zUwVEXZWI

Donald Trump Emotional Moment with Former Miss Wisconsin (3-29-16)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3415371/posts


10 posted on 04/04/2016 6:13:07 PM PDT by dynoman (Objectivity is the essence of intelligence. - Marilyn vos Savant)
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To: TTFlyer

I get so sick of this uneducated junk thrown out there by the “pundits”.

I know lots of people from every demographic and have been fortunate enough to have so known them for most of my life.

This is pure, unadulterated arrogant and self serving blather.

Blacks, Mexicans, uneducated, highly educated, not educated and smarter and more informed than the pundits, all who understand that Cruz and every other candidate will sell the country out for money, power and self interest will vote for Donald.

The issue is the never ending attacks on Donald. Those attacks can possibly change the minds of those who just see the problems as does Donald, but do not recognize the actual danger of Cruz and the GOPe. That could be overcome if Donald would hammer the truth of Cruz the globalist who flip flops so he can win the nomination.


11 posted on 04/04/2016 6:46:17 PM PDT by amihow (l)
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To: Slyfox; TTFlyer

Well.... I’m a gal and I am voting for Trump tomorrow.

Yes, we Republicans have been through the wringer and back again. Stood by our Gov through thick and thin and massive outside the state money and influence. Proud to say we withstood it all. But with Gov. Walker, whom I like tremendously, has sided with his good friend (sincerely) to Dump Trump I just cannot stand with him. I appreciate his loyalty, but ya know... I can think on my own.

Had enough of the GOPe telling me who to vote for..... Had it up to here!

Trump it is for me.
PS: Go Bradley for Supreme Court


12 posted on 04/04/2016 6:49:10 PM PDT by WaterWeWaitinFor (Would Winston Churchill stand still for all this nonsense?)
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To: amihow

Did you hear Krauthammer tonight telling me ONCE AGAIN that I’m uneducated, lower income and just plain a moron. Well, well...... I’m not any of that, Kraut.

Wisconsin..... let’s make them eat crow tomorrow. Who’s with me?


13 posted on 04/04/2016 6:52:54 PM PDT by WaterWeWaitinFor (Would Winston Churchill stand still for all this nonsense?)
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To: WaterWeWaitinFor

Well I am a woman and in no way fit Krauthammer’s profile.

I am all in for Trump!


14 posted on 04/04/2016 6:57:04 PM PDT by Irish Eyes
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