Trump Victory in Pennsylvania Hinges on 10 Counties, Experts Say

Real Clear Politics ^ | July 6, 2016 | Salena Zito

[2ndDivisionVet]

Republicans may not be committing political hyperbole this year when they say their presidential candidate can win Pennsylvania, experts say.

Every election since Pennsylvania went for Bill Clinton in 1992, Republicans have declared “this time” the Keystone State will turn red.

And every cycle they fail.

This year might be different, according to experts in electoral math.

“Republicans don't need Pennsylvania to win the electoral vote, but Democrats do, and a loss here for Hillary Clinton on election night would likely mean she loses the White House by the morning,” said Lara Brown, director of George Washington University's political management program....

[Biggirl]

That is because of the problem with massive voter fraud problem.

[Vigilanteman]

Thanks for the correction on Dauphin County. Yes, it should have gotten a # and not a *. Every county with a # is a special case. Dauphin because of Harrisburg, Lackawanna because of Scranton, Lancaster because it is still commuting distance to either Harrisburg or even Philadelphia plus a generally nice place for the big city creeps to get away from the big cities and big government loving voting habits with them.

I'm not familiar enough with York and Luzerne to comment if the same case applies here, but I suspect it does.

[Abby4116]

Of course, the voting machines that flip the R vote to a D vote (don’t worry honey, Mr. Romney got your vote) hasn’t anything to do with the count in Bucks in 2012. /s

[LoveUSA]

York County is very blue-collar but also heavily Hispanic. It was Hispanic before Hispanic was cool.

[Vigilanteman]

Most of us think of York County as the home of our Commie Governor Tom Wolf, which didn't even vote for him. Plus lots and lots of potato chip plants.

Yeah, compared to most places in Pennsylvania, there is a pretty large Hispanic presence. Compared to California or Texas, the 4% or so in York County would hardly attract notice.

[PennsylvaniaMom]

I’m in Westmoreland County as well. It’s only July and Trump signs are every where out here. Hand painted ones as well as the “official.” My daughter and her family live in Washington County. Same YUGE amount of signage, but a tad different there. Fracking is everywhere. Jobs, houses being built, there is a boom. They KNOW where “she” stands (on the pipelines pumping out the natural gas).

I really think Trump can win PA.

[knarf]

I agree, but I don’t know where Allegheny stands

[Stentor]

I am in Lower Bucks.It is always so hard to predict.I can tell you that people regretted voting Obama.

My old home. Skating on the Fairless Hills golf course. Nickle Cokes at the Union Supply. St Francis Cabrini.

[FenwickBabbitt]

... to turn out bigly (Trumpism) for the Republicans.

Trump, of course, has never at any time said the non-word "bigly," although it's become an Internet meme because of those who misheard him or simply like the funny sound of "bigly." He does, however, say "big league" frequently (you know, like "major league.")