Posted on 09/28/2016 11:41:39 AM PDT by LS
Here is an example of his latest work on the Emerson CO poll where Trump is supposedly up 3:
Colorado: TRUMP vs Hillary vs Johnson vs Stein. Emerson, 9/9-9/13, 600 LV
Results: TRUMP 41.9% | Hillary 38.3% | Johnson 12.8% | Stein 1.7%
Adjusted: TRUMP 45.1% | Hillary 35.1% | Johnson 12.8% | Stein 1.7%
1. This poll oversampled DEM. (Page 14)
Democrats 34.2% | Republican 29.4% | Independent 36.4%
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_784e507857734ddb84b32e9d6ee1022c.pdf
2. Realistic Party ID % is - DEM 31.5% | REP 31% | Ind+Other 37.5%
1) Colorado: Party Affiliation (July,2016). Rep = DEM Active + inactive = Total 3.65 Million Registered Voters.
http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/VoterRegNumbers/VoterRegNumbers.html
http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/VoterRegNumbers/2016/July/VotersByPartyStatus.pdf
Rep: 988k(Active) + 148k(Inactive) = 1.13 Million (31%)
DEM: 980k(Active) + 170k(Inactive) = 1.15 Milion (31.5%)
3. Generally, Nowadays TRUMP gets 85%ish support from Republican,
10%ish support from Democrats.
1) So this poll should be fixed as D: -2.7%, R: +1.6%
So numbers should be fixed like, (85%-10%)x4.3%=3.2%
TRUMP +3.2%, Hillary -3.2%
Then, TRUMP 45.1% | Hillary 35.1% | Johnson 12.8% | Stein 1.7%
Those were unskewd and these are adjusted. Methodology is different, too.
Ras +5
1) he does it for Cankles in some polls
2) Many of the Trump polls have him leading, but this guy argues not by enough.
3) pretty darned detailed analysis to me.
Michigan a little disappointing compared to last week, but Washington much closer than I would have expected, which is a good sign!
Crowds are not an indicator of voting turnout.
If they were, Bernie with his large enthusiastic crowds should have won California.
Hillary had pitifully small rallies then - didn’t seem to matter.
She ended up winning the primary.
Sorry, was referring to an earlier post and didn’t see yours.
Did you see the article about AFL-CIO all worked up that 41% of its members on Labor Day said they were voting Trump, and that they knocked that down to 36% today? Still, that’s two states right there.
If we carve away some of the union vote, all of the rust belt states are in play!
PPP also has Clinton up by 4... Trump’s disastrous performance has set him back a few points.
Umm, what was their previous.
Don’t buy the “disastrous” performance.
Did you look at this?
Crosstabs: Republicans: Trump 89 Clinton 9
Democrats: Clinton 85 Trump 12
That’s awesome and it spells VICTORY in November, easy.
PPP hasn’t done a national poll in several weeks, if not months..
It’s D+9
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