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Why Trump Could Still Pull Off a Surprise
Politico Magazine ^ | October 16, 2016 | Matthew Goodwin

Posted on 10/17/2016 8:44:03 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

You Americans should learn the lesson of the Brexit shocker, and the stunning success of right-wing populists in Austria and France.

LONDON—Don’t underestimate the power of nativist populism. That’s the harsh lesson we in Britain learned less than four months ago, when Brexit blew up in our faces and confounded nearly every prediction. It’s one the Austrians and French are learning even now, as they keep counting out (then are forced to count back in) right-wing populist backlashes to the establishment. And it’s the lesson that American pundits who are already predicting a comfortable victory for Hillary Clinton over the embattled Donald Trump—if not a historic landslide—should take on board before they start relaxing too much in the next few weeks.

Of course, every election, and country, is unique. And with little more than 20 days left until America elects its next president, there is reason for the new sense of confidence in the Clinton camp. In recent weeks, Trump has been engulfed by scandal, and Clinton’s position has strengthened considerably in the polls.

But recent elections outside the United States should check too much complacency in the Clinton camp, especially when the side that is perceived to be losing is preaching nativist populism to voters who have been economically left behind and feel culturally under threat from ethnic change....

(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...


TOPICS: Campaign News; Polls; State and Local
KEYWORDS: hillary; trump
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To: romanesq

i wish to report.....just the other day I was talking with a local contractor. Just that guy who knows the ropes and is a dyed in the wool democrat. So then he told me that what with the disaster at Benghazi, and Hilary Clinton being responsible for four American deaths, he could find no way to vote for her.

I just know there’s a whole lot of local contractors out there just like him.


21 posted on 10/17/2016 9:19:54 PM PDT by tenthirteen
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To: Kenny
How do her numbers go up with each breaking scandal?

Because the polls are manipulated to maximize Hillary's numbers. She's not leading by double digits. I doubt she's convinced 50% of the expected voters, and I believe it will take 50% to win this election (I believe 3rd party candidates cumulative will not exceed 3.5%).

22 posted on 10/17/2016 9:21:00 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

This is a piece to keep the libtard’s spirits up.

Like Trump winning is the real surprise.


23 posted on 10/17/2016 9:23:35 PM PDT by Secret Agent Man (Gone Galt; Not averse to Going Bronson.)
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To: Unam Sanctam

I’d like to think there will be another Brexit upset, but I also remember the disappointments of 2008 and 2012, when it turned out the pro-Democrat polls were right. Also, I just understand why it is Trump mired in scandal when Clinton seems pretty much head barely visible in the mudhole of emails, Clinton Foundation slush fund, Wikileaks-exposed corruption, etc.


The Party of Lincoln is truly finished if the GOP can not 100% unite behind Trump to defeat the STAGGERING corruption and STAGGERING criminality of Hillary Criminal and the DemoKKKrat party. Hold on to your hat because it’s going to be an unbelievable 3 weeks until the election.


24 posted on 10/17/2016 9:27:41 PM PDT by lodi90 (Clear choice for Conservatives now: TRUMP or lose)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Trump has been engulfed by scandal?

Matthew Goodwin is a drama queen.


25 posted on 10/17/2016 9:29:52 PM PDT by july4thfreedomfoundation (You can't spell TRIUMPH without TRUMP)
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To: JBW1949

56% of the people get their news from the internet. Bet 75% of voters do.

Pray America wakes


26 posted on 10/17/2016 9:32:32 PM PDT by bray (Because you would be in jail)
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To: Unam Sanctam

You forget—there are very few parallels between this election and any others in recent history.


27 posted on 10/17/2016 9:32:35 PM PDT by reasonisfaith ("...because they received not the love of the truth, that they might be saved." (2 Thessalonians))
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To: Unam Sanctam

Obama excited the libs and motivated them to vote in great numbers.

Hillary is about as exciting as sour milk.

That’s pretty much the difference between 2008, 2012 verses 2016.


28 posted on 10/17/2016 9:32:35 PM PDT by july4thfreedomfoundation (You can't spell TRIUMPH without TRUMP)
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To: JBW1949

I don’t think the fraud can overcome the number of dems who will sit out the election, not to mention the number of first time voters who will go Trump.


29 posted on 10/17/2016 9:36:17 PM PDT by reasonisfaith ("...because they received not the love of the truth, that they might be saved." (2 Thessalonians))
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I don’t care what the polls say, there is a distinct difference in the rallys that PIAPS and the Donald are having.

I believe that will manifest itself positively for Trump come the eighth.

Its the ninth I worry about. The socialists are not going to allow this to happen without a couple hundred fires.


30 posted on 10/17/2016 9:37:57 PM PDT by Molon Labbie
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I’m getting bummed by all the “Maybe he could still get lucky and win” threads on here.


31 posted on 10/17/2016 9:38:08 PM PDT by pepsi_junkie (ui)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Of course, every election, and country, is unique. And with little more than 20 days left until America elects its next president, there is reason for the new sense of confidence in the Clinton camp. In recent weeks, Trump has been engulfed by scandal, and Clinton’s position has strengthened considerably in the polls.

............................................................What????? She been in bed almost the entire month.....

32 posted on 10/17/2016 9:39:11 PM PDT by vinny29
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To: Unam Sanctam
This is a different election, and Donald Trump is NOT McCain or Romney. Lets all be positive, FIGHT, FIGHT, FIGHT, GOTV
33 posted on 10/17/2016 9:43:07 PM PDT by vinny29
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To: Meet the New Boss

“...We will find out .....the media polling was (is) coordinated with the hits on Trump and the numbers massaged to try to provide momentum to Hillary and discourage Trump supporters at key points in the race...”

Exactly. This is absolutely what is happening.

The pollsters are crooked and lying. There is no doubt so ignore them all and vote Trump!!

The question is why have all of the corporate “journolists” become third world socialists gone to the dark side instead of American patriots?

Money and power? Sickening!


34 posted on 10/17/2016 9:47:46 PM PDT by stonehouse01
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To: cherry
I agreed!!! Why you think she is bombarding the airways and TV 24/7? If somebody was so safe and far ahead, will be sitting waiting to be coronated and saving all that money.
35 posted on 10/17/2016 9:47:58 PM PDT by vinny29
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The People are going to rise up, and Donald Trump, the best candidate we’ve ever had, will be elected President.

We will be great again!


36 posted on 10/17/2016 9:49:08 PM PDT by Blacklisted ("Paul Manafort, you're fired.")
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To: cherry

Yes, we MUST believe; but that belief has a much greater basis than 2008 & 2012. The Republican candidates in 2008 & 2012 were not interesting nor exciting. Granted, Mr. Trump is a little more than rough at the edge on more than one occasion. BUT, he speaks the truth in plain ENGLISH with inspiration that we haven’t seen since Ronaldus Magnus.


37 posted on 10/17/2016 9:50:51 PM PDT by caprock
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

If he wins its because we are all native populists. Not intelligent decision makers.


38 posted on 10/17/2016 9:55:19 PM PDT by samadams2000 (Someone important make......The Call!)
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To: Kenny

They can weighted different to come to that result without telling everybody how they are doing it. It is a push poll to get the Republican base demoralize. This is our last election before all goes down to H**l so I think and I hope people will not take it slightly.


39 posted on 10/17/2016 9:56:07 PM PDT by vinny29
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Brexit shocker is a myth. The result was within the margin of error that the polls were showing at the time.

However Trump will win a shocker because some of his support has taken to ground so the polls are moved outside the margin of error.

40 posted on 10/17/2016 10:06:22 PM PDT by Berlin_Freeper
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