Posted on 10/19/2016 1:15:51 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Stony Brook, N.Y. — A SUNY professor continues to project Donald Trump as the likely winner of this year's election and he's critiquing polls that predict the opposite in a new opinion piece.
Helmut Norpoth has been predicting a Trump victory since early this year. His model currently projects a win for the Republican with a certainty of 87 to 99 percent.
Norpoth is a professor at Stony Brook University on Long Island.
That flies in the face of just about every other major election forecast out there, which mostly give an edge to Democrat Hillary Clinton, notes the Daily Mail.
Norpoth wrote in The Hill that although the race looks decided, current polling methods are "bunk."
The projections for Clinton are all based on opinion polls, which are flawed because they don't reflect actions, Norpoth wrote. They're about what voters think of Clinton or Trump, but they can't tell us exactly how voters will act on those thoughts.
"It is ingrained in all of us that voting is civic duty," he says. "So nearly all of us say, oh yes, I'll vote, and then many will not follow through."
Instead of opinion polling, Norpoth relies on statistics from candidates' performances in party primaries and patterns in the electoral cycle to forecast results. The model correctly predicted the victor in every presidential election since 1996, according to the Daily Mail.
Running the model on earlier campaigns comes up with the correct outcome for every race since 1912, except the 1960 election.
Norpoth wrote on his site that Trump's victories in early primary states are key predictors of his chances in November. The cycle also favors the GOP after two terms of a Democrat in the White House.
"So hold off on trusting poll-driven proclamations of a Clinton victory just yet," Norpoth wrote in The Hill. "Voters have a way of always getting the last word."
Uh-oh.
Please, God. I remember how sick I felt when Obama easily beat Romney and all of us had been so hopeful back then.
Hope he factored in a boatload of cheating for 2016.
Please if you have not entered your prayer request on the prayer thread please go now and join us in prayer...there is power in numbers!!!
Well, we can expect cheating this time too.
Ah yes.
It won’t be that close to steal.
It is logic based on history.
true dat
You left out his title.
It won’t even be close to steal the Election like in 1960 where the popular vote win was less than 1/2%
49.72% - 49.55%
See for example How Johnson Won Election He'd Lost, a 1990 review of the second volume of Robert Caro's biography of LBJ.
In the South Texas town of Alice, for instance, the last 202 voters lined up to vote in alphabetic order.
In 2000, did he predict the electoral college vote or the popular vote correctly?
Hope this guys got tenure!
But, then it won’t matter when the bring a fake sex alegation.
He predicted the popular vote in 2000 which was correct
I am so angry right now. I want to send a giant FU to the GOPe, the Enemedia, and the Clintonese Crime Family.
1960 the one exception, and that one the DemocRATs stole with vote fraud in TX and IL.
So the model seems to be 100% accurate since 1912!!
Bookmark.
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