Posted on 06/06/2017 5:39:42 PM PDT by LS
I just did a quick review of some of the Secretary of State websites in battleground states (or wanna-be battlegrounds, like Joisey)
*All states do not record voters by party ID, including MN, MI, VA, WI, so getting stats there is meaningless.
*Some, such as OH and NC (to my knowledge last I looked) have not updated voter registration #s since November.
Here are the numbers compared to last November:
PA: this is the biggie. Both parties lost. Rs -67k Ds -169k Now, Is in PA gained 100k. While not necessarily the case, EVEN if every single D became an I, the net change is that the Ds lost a minimum of 2k, a possible net maximum of 102k.
The 102k is up even from last month when it was just under 100k, so the PA Dems are hemorrhaging voters.
FL: GOP net gains/D losses=27k
IA: GOP net about 4k
AZ: both have gained, Ds 15k, Rs 20k
NV: this one had me concerned, but GOP has cut into the D lead by about 5k since November. Both have fallen some.
Last time I looked at NM, it was weird: the 2017 number for Ds AND Rs was exactly the same as 2015 . . . but the 2016 number for both had risen. Makes me think something is wrong with their stats and that they simply listed 2015 for 2017 by mistake.
What are your thoughts as of now on the 2018 midterms????
Wow great info. Thanks
Thanks
Do you know what is happening in Georgia?
Just looked at NM. They apparently fixed it.
Both parties have lost voters since Nov. 2016.
Net change Rs gained 10k.
So in five battleground states, GOP has gained or picked up vs. Ds
In one non-battleground (NJ) GOP has relatively gained big
and in one battleground (CO) GOP has lost ground.
- - - Makes me think something is wrong - - -
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Makes me think it doesn’t take much to find something wrong.
No, but Richard Baris of the MOST accurate pollster in 2016 says race has gotten very, very tight and he had Handel losing. Now he has her winning a squeaker.
I think she’ll win by 1-2 points, just based on these trends I list here.
What Florida data are you using? The statewide Secretary of State data is only current to December 31, 2016.
I looked at the site a month ago. The 2015 #s were EXACTLY the same as the 2017 numbers-—for both parties. But the 2016 numbers were much different. I think a typist accidentally entered 2015 again in the 2017 column.
It’s fixed now.
They had a number up for 2017. Last I looked was in April. It was R +27k at that time.
I didn’t look today.
Just a hunch, but I think voters that are still alive favor the GOP.
Unfortunately, the DFL usually carries the cemetery vote by a wide margin on Election Day.
As best as I can tell, the Florida Division of Elections registration stats are all as of December 31, 2016.
Have been following along on the debate thread. Consensus is she is doing well. She asked him who he was planning on voting for. ;-)
Well, this is embarrassing. I went there and you’re right, there is no 2017 data up. I know I saw it there, and posted it here back (I think) in April.
I’m pinging Ravi & SpeedyinTexas, who also worked in the FL SecState site a lot, and maybe they can see my error.
Perhaps I used November election #s and December registration numbers. It’s not apples to apples, but it is a good gauge of relative changes.
That’s what I’m seeing, but I know I didn’t make this up, and even posted here. I’m wondering if they took it down, or if it’s hidden someplace else?
Trump won election day everywhere outside of Minny by 2:1.
Baris says it was the early vote that killed Trump, and without the tape, he would have won MN.
Interestingly, that’s pretty much what the HuffPo guy said yesterday, that the Dems were in danger of losing MN.
Baris said the D margin was down to +2 already.
Georgia records gender and race, but not party affiliation. (Really?)
So no way to tell. This is probably why every presidential election morons like Nate Silver say GA is “in play” and it never is.
Thank you, dearest LS, for the GOOD news!
Without data from all 57 states...
During the first three months of this year, WV has purged 47,490 from the rolls.
That leaves 1,233,703 voters....for now.
A second round is underway.
http://wvmetronews.com/2017/04/20/sos-mac-warner-clerks-purges-voters-rolls-in-wv/
With WV having an official population of 1,844,128 as of 2016, I do not see that 1,233,703 total of registered voters staying that high.
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