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Impeaching Trump is a heavy lift
Brookings ^ | June 16, 2017 | Jonathan Rauch·

Posted on 06/17/2017 4:57:52 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Suppose most Americans were to conclude that President Trump is unfit for office. How long would it take to remove him? If President Nixon’s example provides any guidance, the answer is: a long time—if ever.

(GRAPH-AT-LINK)

Consider the first chart, which shows Nixon’s approval ratings throughout his truncated second term, and also Trump’s approval ratings so far. (All of the approval numbers cited here are from Gallup’s Presidential Job Approval Center.) Nixon’s second-term approval started strong, in the high sixties, but plummeted as Watergate revelations emerged. By the time the Senate Watergate hearings began, in May of 1973, his ratings were under 50 percent. By the time of the Saturday Night Massacre, in October of 1973, his approval was mired in the mid-twenties, never to recover.

Still, Nixon held onto office for more than 17 months after his ratings sank below 50 percent, and for more than nine months after they sank into the twenties. Being loathed by the American public, and being widely and correctly perceived to be a criminal, did not do him in for a long time.

The reason was that the critical variable was not overall approval but Republican approval. Removal either by impeachment or under the 25th Amendment, the two mechanisms available, requires a 67-vote Senate supermajority (unless a president is too incapacitated to serve). As a result, even though Democrats controlled Congress in 1974, Nixon could not be removed without Republican legislators’ support.

The same arithmetic applies to Trump today. Even if Democrats manage to win a House majority next year, the most Senate seats they could possibly capture in 2018 (if they won every race) is 56. Unless Republican Senators, and quite a few of them, defect from Trump, he stays put until at least January 2021....

(Excerpt) Read more at brookings.edu ...


TOPICS: Polls; State and Local; U.S. Congress; U.S. Senate
KEYWORDS: democrats; impeachment; republicans; trump
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Comments?
1 posted on 06/17/2017 4:57:52 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“unfit for office”? Votes determine if someone is fit. Removing him wouldn’t be impeachment, it would be a coup. Let them try.


2 posted on 06/17/2017 5:00:07 PM PDT by Telepathic Intruder
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Trump is a duly elected President. He is smart, competent, and loves his country and the people.

We will not allow the crooks, liars and scum in DC to remove our vote without a fight that will have dire consequences.

I will never accept any phony unelected person to be my President.


3 posted on 06/17/2017 5:03:28 PM PDT by dforest
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The Demonuts want to impeach Trump because he was Elected ? LOL


4 posted on 06/17/2017 5:06:26 PM PDT by butlerweave
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

There are no grounds, other than their desire to continue their 30 year bipartisan policy of non-enforcement of laws and borders to change the demographic makeup of the country.


5 posted on 06/17/2017 5:08:57 PM PDT by Lurkinanloomin (Natural Born Citizen Means Born Here Of Citizen Parents - Know Islam, No Peace -No Islam, Know Peace)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

6 posted on 06/17/2017 5:10:32 PM PDT by HarleyLady27 ( "The Force Awakens!!!"...Trump and Pence: MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!)
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To: HarleyLady27

The election proved this to be true....


7 posted on 06/17/2017 5:11:50 PM PDT by JBW1949 (I'm really PC....PATRIOTICALLY CORRECT!!!!)
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To: butlerweave

That’s about it. They believed their own dishonest polls, cheated, had the media on their side,used Jill Stein to contest the votes in 3 states and they STILL LOST.

They had big plans for keeping the Swamp, and its powers, in place.


8 posted on 06/17/2017 5:12:01 PM PDT by madison10 (My language has gotten 10 times worse since June 14 2017.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Why not use Bill Clinton as the model?


9 posted on 06/17/2017 5:12:02 PM PDT by Williams (Stop tolerating the intolerant.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
KKK started by the Democrat Party...
10 posted on 06/17/2017 5:12:40 PM PDT by HarleyLady27 ( "The Force Awakens!!!"...Trump and Pence: MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Dems are ‘shooting their wads’ too early. The Trump presidency has not been in office long enough to mount much in the way of ‘concerns’. They should have waited until after the 2018 election to see how things were then.

Now, every allegation they try to lay on President Trump inadvertantly points to Clinton and Obama people, too.

Dems got in too big of a hurry. Assuming they do not gain much, if anything, in the 2018 election, they would likely have near zero ammunition then to try impeachment or anything else.


11 posted on 06/17/2017 5:15:49 PM PDT by TomGuy
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

What amazes me is how many think if he is impeached Hillary will become president. Proof Civics should not have been taken out of schools.


12 posted on 06/17/2017 5:15:57 PM PDT by Tammy8 (Please be a regular supporter of Free Republic !)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Left wing wet dream fantasy.


13 posted on 06/17/2017 5:16:20 PM PDT by Hugin (Conservatism without Nationalism is a fraud.)
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To: HarleyLady27

Before the Klan there were the Knights of the Golden Circle that wanted to start a slave-owning country that included the American South, Cuba, the Southwest and other locations.


14 posted on 06/17/2017 5:17:04 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland US. There'd be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I think over 65+ million American Voters will have something to say about this...
15 posted on 06/17/2017 5:19:28 PM PDT by HarleyLady27 ( "The Force Awakens!!!"...Trump and Pence: MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

16 posted on 06/17/2017 5:24:49 PM PDT by Travis McGee (EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
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To: HarleyLady27; nathanbedford

Nathan Bedford Forrest’s speech to the Pole-Bearers Association

http://tennessee-scv.org/ForrestHistSociety/forrest_speech.html


17 posted on 06/17/2017 5:25:55 PM PDT by onedoug (Remembering 68-69 Tonkin Gulf Yacht Club)
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To: HarleyLady27

I wonder, are those three on someone’s “list”?

Again, just wondering.


18 posted on 06/17/2017 5:27:15 PM PDT by Kickass Conservative ( Democracy, two Wolves and one Sheep deciding what's for Dinner.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
The same arithmetic applies to Trump today.

Yes, not only is the arithmetic difficult, but—as contrasted with Richard Nixon—there's also the inconvenient fact that President Trump has done absolutely nothing wrong.

Additionally, impeaching a President who maintains a fiercely loyal and substantial base will prove to be a rather daunting task. Prohibitively daunting, in fact.

NeverTrumpers and Leftists who are excitedly engaging in this whimsical circle jerk should probably cut back on the lubricant they're masturbating with, because it seems to be interfering with their ability to engage in rational thought...

19 posted on 06/17/2017 5:27:40 PM PDT by sargon ("If we were in the midst of a zombie apocalypse, the Left would protest for zombies' rights.")
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To: Williams

Neither Bill Clinton nor Nixon were impeached.

It ain’t gonna happen.


20 posted on 06/17/2017 5:34:01 PM PDT by Baldwin77 (They hated Reagan too ! TRUMP TOUGH - AMERICA STRONG)
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