39% Chance of retaking the senate?

Iowa Electronic Markets ^

[baking1]

According to this market based poll, the odds of retaking the Senate are only 39% (33.9 + 5.3 as of 4 p.m. 10/23) What's up with that? The volume is pretty thin so it shouldn't take too much effort to boost it up.

[pbranham]

Wow!!! That agrees with my odds almost exactly!

My odds INCLUDE the possibility of the Chafing switch, however. I'm not sure if this one does.

If you don't include Chafing, my odds are 52%

[HapaxLegamenon]

Sorry, I Don't get it????

[lasereye]

I'd say that's about right. The Iowa political futures have been pretty accurate over the years.

[JoeBobJr]

Remember, this is not a poll, it is a market. Investors (speculators) bring their own beliefs and prejudices to the IEM, just as they do to the stock market.

[baking1]

No switches are included unless they occur before the election (pretty unlikely.)

[baking1]

RH_RS = Republican House & Republican Senate
NH_RS = Non-Republican House & Republican Senate
I used the last column (averages) but even that has risen to over 40% in the past hour.

[Redmen4ever]

I'll also affirm the insight of the Iowa Electronics Market.

Two years ago, it flipped over the last weekend of the race, correctly tracking the surge Gore enjoyed in the popular vote.

Same thing in the Senate. It correctly flipped on that one, too. Because the 'Republican' side requires 51 or more Republicans.

The important thing from this market is not to assume anything. Things can change by a few percentage points over the last weekend, turning close elections around.

To use a track analogy, you've got to run THROUGH the tape, no slowing up at the end.

[BlackRazor]

Personally, I think those odds are overstating the GOP's chances of retaking the Senate. I've done a statistical analysis of all the races, and have calculated the odds at about 29%. The burden is on the GOP to come up with more pickups than the Democrats. Considering that the GOP is behind or statistically even in 3 seats they currently hold (NH, CO, AR), that's going to be a tough thing to do. The NJ situation really hurt the GOP's odds.

[PeoplesRepublicOfWashington]

Note that the smart money has been pouring out of "RatHouse-RatSenate" and the bulk of it has been going into "RepublicanHouse-RepublicanSenate." The Pubs have got the Big Mo right now.

[paul544]

The funny thing too, is that the GOP is killing the GOP in 2 of those 3 races. NH has that lunatic Smith not supporting "his" party, and in AR, the bible thumpers refuse to support Hutchinson. Eating our own yet again.

[Torie]

That market is based on the GOP gaining 2 seats rather than one. "Control" for some reason is defined as taking 51 seats, not 50%. The market is too optimistic about GOP chances. The percentage would make more sense is control was defined as gaining one seat.

[cicero's_son]

I agree with you re: Arkansas conservatives. I'm infuriated at their refusal to support Hutchinson.

Regardless of Hutchinson's personal flaws, a vote for Pryor is a vote for the party of infanticide. How could any decent Christian conservative fail to see this?