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TWISTED: LA Times Poll Had Sample With 38% Democrats, 25% Republicans
drudgereport.com ^

Posted on 06/15/2004 7:37:11 AM PDT by Jimmyclyde

TWISTED: LA Times Poll Had Sample With 38% Democrats, 25% Republicans Tue Jun 15 2004 10:13:47 ET

Sen. John Kerry "has taken big lead," according "to an L.A. Times poll."

But the Times poll that showed Kerry "beating Bush by 7 points" has created a controversy over whether the poll's sample accurately reflects the population as whole, ROLL CALL reports on Tuesday.

"Not counting independents, the Times' results were calculated on a sample made up of 38 percent Democrats and 25 percent Republicans -- a huge and unheard-of margin," ROLL CALL claims.

Developing...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2004; deceit; laslimes; lat; latimes; mediabias; mediashillsforkerry; polls; rollcall
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To: NYC Republican

All of us can see it, sure. But the shock will come when they ADMIT that this was a bogus and weighted poll.


41 posted on 06/15/2004 8:37:01 AM PDT by RandallFlagg (<a href="http://www.michaelmoore.com" target="_blank">miserable failure)
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Is Bustamante the governor of California?

Oh, I forgot. That was another LA Times "accurate" poll.

42 posted on 06/15/2004 8:39:49 AM PDT by george wythe
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To: finnman69
Bush had higherr support from republicans than Kerry had from Dems. Impossible result.

I did not see the details of this LA Times poll previously. Thanks for posting this explanation

43 posted on 06/15/2004 8:43:22 AM PDT by george wythe
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To: Jimmyclyde
That spread in party affiliation is about right for the State of California; however, the Times poll is a nation-wide poll with extra polling in three states...
The Times Poll, supervised by polling director Susan Pinkus, interviewed 1,230 registered voters in the national sample, as well as 566 registered voters in Missouri, 722 in Ohio and 694 in Wisconsin from Saturday through Tuesday. The margin of sampling error for the national sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for the state polling it is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
...it is also merely a "registered voters" poll, as opposed to a "likely voters" poll. The article by Richard Brownstein claims that the poll was taken Saturday through Tuesday, but if the most polling was done on the weekend, the numbers will favor Democrats. (Republicans are out having a life on the weekend!)
44 posted on 06/15/2004 8:57:28 AM PDT by Redcloak (My tagline was abducted by aliens and replaced with this exact duplicate.)
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To: Frank_Discussion; prairiebreeze; onyx; BigSkyFreeper; Tamsey; mrs tiggywinkle; redlipstick; ...
A 13% Dem-positive difference, and STILL only a 7% lead?
Hahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!

*L* .. Not good news for Kerry is it???

45 posted on 06/15/2004 9:01:45 AM PDT by Mo1 (That's right Old Media .... WE LOVED PRESIDENT REAGAN)
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To: governorjim

Yea it's shocking, shocking I'll tell you!

hehehehe

caught again

According to ABC's THE NOTE, the RNC actaully sent out disclaimers on this poll to all the news outlets but each one of them, including Fox reported the results as golden.


46 posted on 06/15/2004 9:02:01 AM PDT by Republican Red (I actually did vote for the 87 BILLION... before I voted against it.)
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To: Jimmyclyde

POLLS POLARIZED POLLING

Remarkably, with the election 6 months away, poll after poll shows that the amount of undecided voters is low- anywhere from 2% to 8%. This shows how polarized the country is. So which poll do we turn to? The common wisdom is that we turn to Zogby because he got it right in 1996 and in 2000.

The problem is that Zogby got lucky in 2000 because he predicted (actually guessed) that more democrats would show up to the polls that republicans. Thanks to a last minute voter push by the Gore Camp in states that ironically he was predicted to take anyway, Gore took the popular vote. Florida turned out closer because the panhandle vote was light after the networks “predicted” Gore was going to win the state before the polls closed.

Luckily for Zogby, these two unpredicted factors propelled him to pollster god. Dick Morris and others love to tout how Zogby got it right in 2000, and we should only trust him. Since Zogby has the current presidential race at a tie, Morris states this is a problem for Bush. But what about the 2002 election?

Not to be outdone, Rove and the RNC revamped the grass root get out the vote for 2002. This was disastrous for (the democrats and) Zogby who was showing on November 4th, 2002, tight senate races. Dick Morris even cited Zogby in his column, (again as the only reliable source because, after all, he got the 2000 election right) stating, “… that the democrats had turned the tide”. This time Zogby’s prediction (actually, it’s a guess) that more Democrats would turn out to vote than Republicans was wrong. He blew it; Morris got it wrong in 2002.

So obviously Dick Morris dethroned Zogby as the pollster god and would not rely on his polling data that favors more democratic voters than republicans for the current presidential race? (That’s a rhetorical question, no need to answer.)

The lesson learned is that with the country narrowly divided with a few undecided, it is going to come down to who can get out the vote. The party can increase turnout to the slightest degree can spell victory. What pollsters should be telling us is who is more motivated to vote this November.


47 posted on 06/15/2004 9:02:41 AM PDT by 11th Commandment
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To: Jimmyclyde

I re-crunched the numbers using the poll's internal percentages, but with a more accurate representation of Republicans, Democrats, and independents.
I got 49.3% for Bush, 45.3% for Kerry.


48 posted on 06/15/2004 9:05:30 AM PDT by counterpunch (<-CLICK HERE for my CARTOONS)
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To: Jimmyclyde
You mean the LA Times cooked a poll to make it look like their guy, Jean al Query, was way ahead of President Bush?
I'm shocked, shocked, I tell you!
49 posted on 06/15/2004 9:13:32 AM PDT by SuziQ (Bush in 2004/Because we MUST!!)
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To: RandallFlagg

Rush is on the poll rigging right now


50 posted on 06/15/2004 9:14:10 AM PDT by finnman69 (hOcum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestus globus, inflammare animos)
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To: RandallFlagg

Rush just spent a whole segment blasting this...


51 posted on 06/15/2004 9:15:36 AM PDT by NYC Republican (President Reagan (1911 -2004)- Greatest President of Our Lifetime- Rest in Peace)
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To: Rokke

YES! FReepers Rule!


52 posted on 06/15/2004 9:16:24 AM PDT by Libertina (Reagan showed us what being a great president was all about. Thank you sir for bringing pride!)
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To: Jimmyclyde
the Times' results were calculated on a sample made up of 38 percent Democrats and 25 percent Republicans -- a huge and unheard-of margin

Nonsense. That's a 13% difference.

The April 2nd Minneapolis Star-Tribune poll had 53% Democrats and 39% Republicans - a 14% difference. And gave Kerry the edge by 12 points.

It's not unheard of - it's run-of-the-mill among leftist media outlets determined to deliver the election to Kerry.

53 posted on 06/15/2004 9:18:08 AM PDT by jdege
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To: NYC Republican

I missed it due to my Son deciding that moment to raise hell.

Got it recorded, though!


54 posted on 06/15/2004 9:21:19 AM PDT by RandallFlagg (<a href="http://www.michaelmoore.com" target="_blank">miserable failure)
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No Dittocam, though!

Bummer!


55 posted on 06/15/2004 9:24:04 AM PDT by RandallFlagg (<a href="http://www.michaelmoore.com" target="_blank">miserable failure)
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To: Phantom Lord

Yep, Brit Hume used that piece of LAT logic on his Grapevine segment late last week - he named the spokesperson too - think it was a woman.


56 posted on 06/15/2004 9:24:44 AM PDT by Let's Roll (Kerry is a self-confessed unindicted war criminal or ... a traitor to his country in a time of war)
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To: Consort
No more poll threads.

So, how do you feel about Poll Threads?

  1. Hey, why not?
  2. Don't you mean pole threads?
  3. No more poll threads!

57 posted on 06/15/2004 9:25:25 AM PDT by freedumb2003 (I want to die in my sleep like Gramps -- not yelling and screaming like those in his car)
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To: Rokke

Rush figured it out the day the poll was released and explained it on the air.


58 posted on 06/15/2004 9:25:52 AM PDT by Eva
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To: Jimmyclyde
Twisted? It's Standard Operating Procedure for these libs and their polling partners in crime, isn't it?

I have never, ever been polled for anything, so now I know why.

59 posted on 06/15/2004 9:26:36 AM PDT by b4its2late (Hillary, it is bad to suppress laughter; it goes back down and spreads to your hips.)
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To: Eva
Rush figured it out the day the poll was released and explained it on the air.

Yeah, but the way Rush explained it was: "The only way that they could get these results would be if they polled a larger number of democrats than republicans," or something to that effect.

And, yet again, Rush was proven right this morning!
60 posted on 06/15/2004 9:30:25 AM PDT by RandallFlagg (<a href="http://www.michaelmoore.com" target="_blank">miserable failure)
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