[Liz]

Sabato said Kerry, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, is a liberal in the spirit of U.S. Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass., and former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis. But Sabato said that likely will matter little before Nov. 2, since this election will mainly be a referendum on Bush and whether he deserves another four years in office.

[goldstategop]

The election always is a referendum on the incumbent. Larry Sabato says this BEFORE the GOP convention. If the election were held now, I'd think he'd be right on money. It isn't though and its a long way to November.

[Militiaman7]

Never believe Larry Sabato.

[presidentbowen]

Why are so many analysts saying that this race is already over?

[AxelPaulsenJr]

When is the trial of saddam hussein scheculed to start?

[A Simple Soldier]

I love the analysis, "if the election were held now."

Uh, its not, so that is a ridiculous, meaningless statement. There are three months of campaigning to go. Both campaigns adjust to that REALITY.

[cripplecreek]

Political analysts forsaw the same things in 2000 and in 2002.

[Ciexyz]

Sigh - We'll have to endure another three months of the national media slamming the Iraq War, bringing up Abu Ghraib, hiding Kerry's dishonorable actions in slamming his fellow Vietnam Vets, and painting the economy in a bad light.

[dawn53]

Democratic nominee John Kerry easily would beat Republican President George W. Bush if the presidential election was held now, political analyst Larry Sabato told members of the Business Council of Alabama Saturday.

What a numbskull!

The election isn't today.

Candidates gauge their campaign strategy based on the November date, not on an August date.

The fact that neither the GOP convention or the debates have taken place obviously should be considered.

If the primaries had been held before Dean had his "dream scream", he would have won. But they weren't, so Kerry holds the nomination.

[ken5050]

Good Monday morning to ya..relax..Bush has BOTH Clintons in his corner...Kerry doesn't have a chance..

[Dolphy]

Sabato said Bush also must deal with a mediocre economy and a sour mood among voters that sees the economic glass as half empty, not half full.

A sour mood? Then why were consumer confidence and retail sales up?

[shortstop]

I wonder if Sabato would be willing to bet his job as a political analyst on a Kerry victory? I'd love to ask him.

[Grampa Dave]

Phil Dragoo makes this phoney baloney Cambodia adventure really easy to understand even for the pro Kerry Trolls on FR.

[Porterville]

Gore and Liberman were much better candidates than Kerry Edwards; Bush trounced them as an unkown. How are the two weak candidates going to beat Bush? Gore followed steps, he stuck to his leftist guns, so did Liberman; Bush made Gore look like a fool during the debates. How is a flip flopping joke like Kerry going to do better than Bush?

[So Cal Rocket]

Isn't Larry Sabato the guy who said the Republicans would lose the Senate in 2002 by a 52-48 margin?

[OneTimeLurker]

Yeah right! Dream on. LOL

[TUX]

Ann Coulter has it right...this is like a referendum on skirt lengths before the Paris shows.

Media attempt to show Skerry as a winner.

Middle American wont buy.

[So Cal Rocket]

Of course, if the election were held today Kerry would win... he'd be running unopposed, as the Republicans have yet to nominate a candidate.

[Mr Ramsbotham]

Your team is up by 3 runs in the middle of the seventh. If the game ended now, you'd win. Makes sense.

[chilepepper]

Iraq is (IMHO) quickly changing from a negative for Bush to a positive. Abu Ghraib, the legacy of Clinton's affirmative action for incompetent female generals, has almost been forgotten. Allawi is running Iraq (as much as it can be run at this stage) much better than expected, at least what I expected.

As the python squeezes the life out of the insurgents, Iraq will look better and better to the American electorate, and I think a huge number of people who in April were fed up with Bush over Iraq are going to reconsider by November, particularly given how seedy JF'nKerry is starting to look...

[SageofRugby]

Sabato always has some interesting perspectives. One of the pieces of analysis that gets overlooked is the electoral vote scenario has changed since 2000. The Bush states have added electoral votes due to census changes and the Gore states lost votes. Too many of the analyses have Bush losing if, for example, New Hampshire goes to the Dem column. That is incorrect analysis because Bush would pick up more than enough electoral votes in Texas to offset that.

Bush does have his work cut out for him. However he has the better part of three months to make his case to the American people. Irag is not all gloom and doom as the American press likes to characterize the situation.

The more people see Kerry and Bush side by side as leaders and on the issues the more Kerry will begin to fade in the polls. If Bush has built a lead going into the Republican Convention then Kerry will have an uphill battle.