September 29
September 30 (watch this space)
Posted on 09/29/2004 3:57:40 AM PDT by pjsbro
WASHINGTON, Sept. 28 -Days before the presidential debates begin, President Bush appears to be gaining in several swing states he lost in 2000.
Experts caution that the race is highly fluid, but Mr. Bush, for now at least, is surging ahead in several crucial states. Polls show Mr. Bush making headway in Iowa and Wisconsin, both of which he lost last time. He was also building leads in Ohio and West Virginia, states he won in 2000.
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All four states have been hotly contested this year. And Senator John Kerry seems to have ceded Missouri to Mr. Bush.
The shocker in the last week was New Jersey, where three polls showed Mr. Bush pulling even with Mr. Kerry. The state, never on the battleground list, has voted Democratic since 1988 and comes with a sizable chunk of electoral votes, 15. Mr. Bush's strength there was a source of concern to Democrats.
Experts said New Jersey would in the end almost certainly go Democratic, but a snapshot of polls last week put it as a tossup.
Mr. Kerry led in Maine and was solidifying leads in Michigan and Washington, states that Al Gore won in 2000 but that Mr. Bush is contesting this year. Polls also showed the candidates nearly even in Colorado.
An analysis of state polls by The New York Times showed that the race in the last six days has been most competitive in nine states, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon and Pennsylvania. They have a total of 105 electoral votes.
These polls show that if the election had been held in the last week, Mr. Kerry would have been able to count on 10 states plus the District of Columbia, for a total of 153 electoral votes, and that Mr. Bush would have been able to count on 18 states with 144 electoral votes. Three other states - Maine, Michigan and Washington - were leaning toward Mr. Kerry, and if they vote that way will provide Mr. Kerry an additional 32 electoral votes, for a total of 177.
Ten others - Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin and West Virginia - were leaning toward Mr. Bush and would provide him with an additional 104 electoral votes, for a total of 248.
A total of 270 electoral votes is needed to win.
The first of the three debates is scheduled for Thursday. Then, the campaigns will start examining the responses of swing voters and independents and redirect money, commercials and candidates' time to where they think they can be most effective.
Last week, Mr. Kerry pulled back advertising time he had bought in Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana and Missouri. He has made little effort in North Carolina, even though it is the home of his running mate, Senator John Edwards.
The hope in the Bush camp, aides said, is that his debate performance will help nail down the swing states where he is leading and let him move more vigorously to contest other states that Mr. Gore won in 2000.
A senior strategist for Mr. Kerry, Tad Devine, conceded Mr. Bush had made gains in Iowa and Wisconsin.
"They will be competitive all the way to the end, without a doubt,'' Mr. Devine said.
He predicted that those states would repeat their 2000 dynamic, when late polls showed Mr. Bush ahead but Mr. Gore narrowly won both. Mr. Devine also pointed to recent national polls to say Mr. Bush was on shaky ground.
National polls show Mr. Bush opening up a lead of several percentage points over Mr. Kerry. A Pew poll released on Tuesday gave him an eight-point lead, and a Washington Post/ABC News poll on Tuesday showed a six-point edge. The polls did offer some comfort to Mr. Kerry, with voters in the Pew poll, expressing less confidence in the president on Iraq and saying Mr. Kerry would be better for the economy.
"It's on its way back toward a dead heat,'' Mr. Devine said. "Bush got a big bounce out of his convention. But the bounce is coming down, and the situation is not favorable to him. He's an incumbent president who can't gain a decisive advantage.''
A strategist for Mr. Bush, Matthew Dowd, said that the electoral map had "tilted'' to Mr. Bush's favor and that the Kerry camp had to spend money trying to cement leads in states that voted Democratic in 2000.
"They're spending a lot of their resources just keeping the Gore states,'' Mr. Dowd said. "They are increasing their buys in Maine and Michigan and they're trying to get Wisconsin back.''
This had to be hard for the NY Times to write...
Translation: we're looking ahead to 2008.
bttt
Yeah they were so upset they shorted Kerry 8 electoral votes...
Devine is smoking crack, or dropping acid... or BOTH! What a loon!
LLS
"Making headway" in Iowa and Wisconsin?? What kind of nonsense is that? EVERY poll for several weeks has shown Mr Bush leading in both those states. More than one poll had the Repubs up by a substantial margin in WI. It almost looks like GWB is unbeatable there. Those 10 votes will make up for a possible loss in NH or NV, though I think those 2 will stay in the GOP column anyway.
Why? Because it always vote Dem? Since 1988, LOL. That's not long enough to call it a lock. New Jersey IS in play, and the experts don't know what will happen 2 November. Kerry sure better put some campaign dollars in the Garden State and not rely on the experts' outcome.
Remember, you are reading the New York Times...
I must have missed this late-breaking news item.
A senior strategist for Mr. Kerry, Tad Devine, conceded Mr. Bush had made gains in Iowa and Wisconsin.
'"They will be competitive all the way to the end, without a doubt,'' Mr. Devine said.
He predicted that those states would repeat their 2000 dynamic, when late polls showed Mr. Bush ahead but Mr. Gore narrowly won both. Mr. Devine also pointed to recent national polls to say Mr. Bush was on shaky ground. '
Translation: The Dem fraud machine is in place.
You could almost feel the disconsolation coming from this reporter's typewri-- ER, ER -- word processor.
Especially since they seem to very reluctantly concede what everyone else has know for a month.
Nonsense is right. How can he be making headway when he is losing states that Al Bore won four years ago. These should be at least leaning Kerry by now. But they are not.
What experts, James Carville, Paul Begala and the homeless guy that hangs out in front of the Times building?
I'm going to keep a copy of this article and e-mail it back to this particular Times hag after Bush carries NJ.
That's the editor.
Memo to Mr Devine:
Forget Iowa & Wisconsin-Orange boy & the Hairball are being swamped in these 2 states according to polls-start worrying about NJ & Mich.and then start worrying about why anyone would ever hire a guy like you who's probably going to be partly responsible for what starting to looks like one of the greatest electoral disasters in modern times.
More sloppy reporting from the Slimes. Bush could still win 1 EV if he wins one of the 2 CDs.
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