Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 200 Bush 321

Electoral-Vote.com ^

[Reader of news]

Vamos, Dubya! Go, Dubya!

[dc-zoo]

Oh yes.. I really do like the trend.

[dawn53]

You must not be paying attention...it's all gloom and doom...Bush lost the debate you know and his numbers are in free fall. (end/sarcasm)

[SW6906]

Wait a minute - I thought we all gave up after the debate and the Newsweek poll. I thought it was all over........ /sarcasm

[rushmom]

Somebody needs to inform Dick Morris. I've had it with him. I wish Sean Hannity would stop treating him like he's so great.

[syriacus]

Glad to read this. Thank you.

[wrbones]

Rumor has it, the man who runs that site is a Dem. I've noticed over the weeks, that his numbers do seem to favor Kerry... ;o)

[SamAdams76]

Don't be swayed by the defeatists in this forum. These are the ones who flail their arms, rend their clothing and tear out their hair everytime they hit a patch of adversity. Fortunately they are in the minority, albeit a very vocal minority. Some of them are plants sent over here from the other side to discourage us. Don't let those tactics work.

[CurlyBill]

What worries me more than anything is this sudden and unprecedented last minute surge in voter registrations in Dummycratic areas.

[Raven281]

What are these polls that Tim Russert on the Today Show is quoting? 47% to 47& and 49% to 49%? He didn't even say. Just threw some numbers out there.

[MattMa]

If these numbers really reflected how the voters are going to vote, sKerry is in trouble.

Strong Kerry (112)
Weak Kerry (46)
Barely Kerry (42)
Exactly tied (17)
Barely Bush (94)
Weak Bush (100)
Strong Bush (127)

[Dusty Rose]

Registrations do not translate into sure votes. Unless they're voting absentee, those registrations have to make it to the polls on voting day. That takes initiative and conviction. Remember, Kerry is not giving convincing reasons to vote for him. Much of the Kerry vote is anti-Bush, and the lukewarm disinterested never- registered- before antiBush crowd just won't bother.

[StayAt HomeMother]

Rumor has it, the man who runs that site is a Dem. I've noticed over the weeks, that his numbers do seem to favor Kerry

From the Welcome page: "I am a Kerry supporter. I am open about that. Despite my political preference, I have bent over backwards to be scrupulously honest about all the numbers, and have carefully designed the main page to be strictly nonpartisan. Only the third row of menu items below the map contains material that could be considered pro-Kerry (e.g., jokes about George Bush). If you are a Kerry supporter, an independent, a moderate Republican who is fed up with the President's fiscal and other policies or even a conservative Republican who feels betrayed and who has a sense of humor, you will probably enjoy them. If you want an election site that has a pro-Bush bias from beginning to end, including all over the main page, try www.electionprojection.com.

[LS]

Lo and behold, they have now finally agreed with ME. I've had Bush at 320 since early last year, and now I think I'm wrong.

I'm way low.

[LS]

Couple of other points on "registrations": 1) just because you register people in a "Democratic" district or at a "Democratic" event doesn't make them necessarily Dem voters or even Dem registers. For ex., young people are about 40% Bush. So you have a concert to "rock the vote," you will NOT be getting 100% Kerry voters.

2) Many once-Dem districts are rapidly changing (and some GOP districts, vice versa).

3) Many "new" registrations are in fact people who have just moved from one county to another within the same state. Nothing has changed.

Bottom line: I expect fraud, but I think it will be far less than some of the hysterical people here suggest. If this were FL 2000, it might be a concern, but in a place like Ohio, I don't think it's going to dent Dubya's decisive victory.

[Wallace T.]

These numbers look good, but remember that 68 electoral votes are concentrated in three states listed as Barely Bush: OH, PA, and FL. Voter fraud in Cleveland, Columbus, Youngstown, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Scranton, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and Palm Beach could very easily tip those three states to Kerry. In only one of the three states (FL) is it likely that the State authorities might take measures against vote fraud. PA may be hopeless, as its governor is a product of the Philadelphia political machine. OH's GOP is dominated by RINOs who will not confront vote fraud. If these three states go to Kerry through fraud, Kerry's totals go to 268. Then, with the cooperation of corrupt Hispanic and American Indian politicians in northern NM, the Land of Entrapment,...er, Enchantment, could go to Kerry, giving him the needed 271 electoral votes.

I hope my fears are unfounded.

[G.Mason]

"Don't be swayed by the defeatists in this forum."

That bears repeating ... So with your permission ...

Don't be swayed by the defeatists in this forum.

[uncbob]

Gallup sure ain't encouraging

[Hermann the Cherusker]

We're doomed!