Posted on 10/22/2004 5:28:34 PM PDT by RWR8189
Bush leads in Wisconsin, Kerry in Oregon; races appear closer in Ohio, Colorado
PRINCETON, NJ -- Four new CNN/USA Today/Gallup surveys in Ohio, Wisconsin, Oregon, and Colorado suggest that there could be some switches this year in the vote preferences of "red states" and "blue states" -- the states that gave their electoral votes, respectively, to the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates in 2000. George W. Bush currently leads Sen. John Kerry in Wisconsin, which went for former Vice President Al Gore in 2000; while Kerry is competitive with Bush in Ohio, which gave its electoral votes to Bush in 2000. Oregon was a blue state in 2000, supporting Gore by less than half of a percentage point, and Kerry seems likely to keep the state blue this year. Bush won Colorado by eight percentage points in 2000 and seems to have a lead now, but the state is more competitive this year than it was four years ago.
Each state poll was conducted over four days, between Oct. 14 and Oct. 20. Among likely voters, Bush leads by six points each in Colorado (51% to 45%) and Wisconsin (50% to 44%), while Kerry leads by eight points in Oregon (53% to 45%). The contest in Ohio is a virtual dead heat, with Kerry receiving 49% to Bush's 48% support.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
If Pres. Bush saw Ohio slipping away, wouldn't he put forth more effort there? This doesn't make sense. Kerry practically lives in Ohio lately, Bush has been going just about everywhere but that state...and no way has he written it off! That is not his style!
Gallup Ping
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Arnold is coming!!!!
maybe he knows something?
Bush was in Canton Ohio today and will be going back. Also, ARNOLD is going there this weekend.
Maybe he knows something?
Like what?
What that really tells me, Bush running far ahead of 2000 in so many blue states, is that this time he'll be about five percent better in the popular vote. If that's true, you don't have to fret the battleground state strategy. Win by that much, the electoral votes will come.
There is now way Kerry is leading by 8 points in Oregon. I think he is probably ahead, but not by that much. He only won by a few thousand votes in 2000. No way it's changed that much. Also, I've been hearing locally that washington county may now have enough population to carry the state for Bush, if there are enough conservatives here.
Don't give up now Oregonians. Win or lose, we're not going to roll over. Make them work for it, and don't give them a landslide.
He is going to Ohio with The Gubernator, Ahnold soon.
I think I would rather have Ahnold on my "back" than a weakened bubba and a drugged out gore.
In fact, I don't "think"..I know!
You answered your own question... If the President did see Ohio slipping away, he would visit us more. Since he's not...it could be that the polls are wrong.
In my opinion, Wisconsin will go Bush. Oregon will stay Kerry. Colorado and Ohio will stay Bush.
Trading Wisconsin for Ohio would be a net loss of 10 EV. Hope that doesn't occur. I do think the Pres will take Wis. Ohio looks a little tight at the moment
But Ohio also has a gay marriage amendment on the ballot...when one considers the huge opposition to gay marriage, one thinks the Bush base will turn out en masse for both him and the family.
Bush also has a real shot at New Mexico this year. Maybe even Iowa. Less of a shot in Minnesota, but that is another state Kerry may have to defend.
And did you see the latest Detroit Press poll in MICHIGAN? Bush up by 4? Now, that probably isn't going to stick...but it makes even Michigan a problem for Kerry.
I think by Election weekend we're going to see Kerry joined at the hip with TheBentOne, Impeached42, trying to turn out the African American vote--essentially begging for support. Kind of like Jimmy Carter did in the last week of the 1980 election.
My opinion on this election seems to change with the wind--right now I am feeling very, very nervous. But I think you're dead-on with this--what the heck is Kerry doing still trying to shore up the black vote??
I can find no solace in either the polls or where Bush is spending his time--if Rove hadn't sent him to California in 2000 we'd never have had the Florida mess.
Don't mind me, I'm not usually the sky-is-falling type. I think I'm taking this election too personally, if such a thing is possible--I think a Kerry win would be catastrophic.
Bush wasted his time in Pennsylvania last election and I think he has visited 47 times this year. He'd have this think sewn up if he'd have ignored Penn. And I wouldn't bank on them knowing what they're doing.
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