Posted on 10/27/2004 4:08:30 PM PDT by MillardFillmore
BUSH LIKELY LEAD by 5 POINTS in Rasmussen in Oct 26 one day sample! See comment below for my analysis
Wednesday October 27, 2004--Six days to go and President Bush has regained a slim lead in his bid for re-election.
The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48.8% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 47.1%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.
Today's Rasmussen Oct 27 (based on Oct 24, Oct 25, Oct 26 samples) shows Bush 48.8 Kerry 47.1 (Bush + 1.7)
Rasmussen also indicated the other day in his commentary that Kerry lead in each of the one day weekend samples on Oct 22, 23 and 24 (shown as three day average of a two point lead for Kerry (46.4B to 48.4K) on Oct 25
I Designed a linear programming excel model to exactly match the rasmussen model's three day averages, incorprate what he said the other day and then estimate what each individual day's sample was.
Based on this I estimate the following one day results
Oct 26 B50.7 K45.5 Bush +4.9
Oct 25 B48.7 K48.3 Bush +0.9
Oct 24 B46.8 K47.5 Kerry +0.7
Expect tommorrow's (Oct 28) 3 day rasmussen (Oct 25,26,27) to show a larger lead than today's
PROBABLY BUSH +3 POINTS or more as the Bush+4.9% day and the Bush+0.9% day will still be in the sample but the Kerry +0.7% sample from Oct 24th will no longer be in the 3 day average
Bush is sweeping the midwest and south..
This is the most confidence I have had in WEEKS..
The low-blow from the NYT had a minimal 1 or 2% effect at most, and the last 5-6 days will be backfire..
The new Bush ad is BRILLIANT and the best one of the entire election.
Kerry is in DEEP DEEP TROUBLE and the DUmmies don't even see it coming.
I AM GLOWING RIGHT NOW WITH CONFIDENCE.. WE ARE GONNA WIN THIS SUCKER!!!!!!!
good theory
I was thinking the same thing, depends on today's polling though, and how this missing weapons/explosives is being taken in.
don't think so. I think Rasmussen will show it somewhere around Bush 49.5 Kerry 47.1--a 2.4% Bush lead.
So Bush has generally done well on Tuesdays? That's good news.
Poll Lie, Markets Don't:
http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm
I track Ghengis Johnny.
He is defending Hawaii, New Jersey, Michigan, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Iowa. He has abandoned WV, Arkanas, Nevada, Colorado and now he is leaving Florida.
Bush is attacking in same.
Thats all I need to know.
Comments & discussion?
The explosives "issue" is already backfiring. Clarke has stated publicly that no one knows when the explosives went missing and McCurry said the same today. Apparently, Kerry doesn't even know what his staffers are saying.
If Rasmussen hadn't been soooooo far off in 2000 I would be ecstactic!
Markets (especially small ones) can be manipulated.
Oooh Oooh look at me! I designed a linear programming excel model! I designed a linear programming excel model!
Think you're better than me?
It... Is... OVER..
DUmmies.. Get ready for FOUR MORE YEARS of one of the greatest president's ever elected.. George Walker Bush!!
He's defending Minnesota!!!!!!! Enough said.
My current total Bush 53 Al Qaeda 46 Bush 367 EV's
I was talking to my daughter in law today. They are stationed in Hawaii. She told me the absentee votes did not arrive in time for military voting. Grrrrrrrrr
How could I have left out Minnesoota!!!!!
Is Kerry scheduled to be in Florida in the next few days?
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the World of the Imploding Kerry Campaign!
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