Posted on 10/30/2004 8:13:28 PM PDT by CWW
Bush now has 227 EV (safely).
Kerry has 171 EVs (safely).
The following States are Battleground or possibly in play:
HI (4), IA (7), MI (17), MN (10), NH (4), NJ (15), OH (20), PA(21), WI (10), FL (27) and NM (5).
Bush likely will win these 3 additional States worth 38 EVs: NM (5), FL (27) and IA (7).
Bush's total would then be 265 EVs (227+38).
He needs on 4 additioanl EVs to get to a 269 EV tie and swing it to the House of Representatives.
He needs only 5 additional EVs for an outright victory.
Do you hear me -- he needs only 5 EVs from HI (4), MI (17), MN (10), NH (4), NJ (15), OH (20), PA(21), and WI (10).
I like those odds.
In contrast, Kerry almost has to run the table to get to 269.
Are you nuts -- Florida is 27 EVs!
Indeed my friend.
Indeed.
I don't think Bush would have taken time out of his end-game schedule to visit us in Minnesota if Florida was slipping away. Florida's 27 EV's trump MN's 10 in a close race.
There are some very good indicators coming from even a casual review of the news from the campaigns.
Bush is running all over the place in BLUE states in addition to stops in Florida & others.
Kerry is going to places that should be solidly in his base (but seemingly aren't or are the only places he can gather enough crowds for the MSM cameras.)
Minnesota and Hawaii are battleground states. That fact alone must seem like one of the horsemen of the Apocalypse to the dems.
I alos think NM is a lock here. However, I think Bush is going th lose NH and I think MN and HI are just pipe dreams. Our strength, IMHO, lies in WI, IA, and perhaps MI. I wouldn't normally consider MI but W spent A LOT of money there and the boys would not lay out that knid of green in a state they did not at least think they could win. I have no idea how OH will turn out. So much going on there all polling is probably worthless. I would like to think that most of the gentle folks there could see right through that rediculous goose hunting stunt ole Kerry pulled off but who knows.
You didn't see my correction,,add them up and I think you are off by 1.
Mason-Dixon is the best State polling Service. They got it right in 2000 for 22 of 23 states they polled, and the only they missed was by less than 1.5%
Good point about the Kerry Elector. Also, Maine is a proportional state, isn't it?
27+5+7=39 not 38 in the original post.
I think IA is looking good as well as MI (due to the marriage amendment).
That marriage amendment is going to bring out the Christian voter who did not vote in 2000 (4 million) and it is on the ballot in a number of Gore states.
Could be the real backbreaker for Kerry.
This means that Bush only needs to cherrypick a few here or there, and as you said - Kerry has to run the table of EVERY battleground state.
We need to GOTV and assure victory, but the at this point the numbers favor Bush!
>I think Bush is going th lose NH and I think MN and HI are just pipe dreams.<
I've lived in MN for nearly 20 years now - and I have to admit that while fears & doubts creep into my own mind about the improbability of MN going to a Republican... I can say with some assurance that this is no pipe dream. MN truly is up in the air at the moment with some indications of a slight trend/lean towards Bush.
I'll believe it when I see it... but I'm working towards the goal anyhow.
I think it is more easily explained this way. Bush gets:
1. South minus FL for 100 EVs
2. SW/Mountain plus AK for 105 EVs. [This included NM.]
3. IN, MO and WVa for 27 EVs.
These three groupings makes a total of 232 EVs. If Bush carries FL as it now looks to me, that gets him to 259. He then needs 10 from any source. Those 10 could come from:
1. MN
2. Wis
3. HI + NH + ME with only 1CD = 11
4. NJ
5. OH
6. MI
7. PA
8. IA + HI
9. IA + NH
10. IA + ME with only 1CD
Of course if CO surprisingly splits its EV proportionally, Bush would need to make up those 4.
The marraige amendment is the Elephant in the living room that none of the pundits or campaigns wants to look at.
It is one of the - if not THE - Deciding issue of this election. Bush rightly avoided it, because he knew those who support support him. Kerry HAD to avoid it, because it was his kryptonite.
There are 11 states with MA's on the ticket, and I cannot see any person voting for an MA and Kerry.
This is Bush's ace in the hole, and while the spotlight wasn't on it during the pre-election discussion -- it will be discussed in the future as the key to this election.
I have heard rumors that the Amish are going to vote for Bush this year and that they never normally vote. This could also be big in a few states. If it wasn't for the Dem 527's and the MSM working in tandem, I think Bush would get 60% of the Popular vote. I mean gosh, anytime you go to the MSNBC website there are three or four negative stories about Bush. What a load of horsehocky...Iraq IS part of the war on terror! This is actually a grand strategy...that will take several years and a few more wars. All you ever get out of the MSM is that Iraq was not DIRECTLY linked to 9-11. So what! The most certainly were exporting terrorism and providing terroists with saft haven. What were we supposed to do? Wait another 10 years with that intolerable Hussian in there? Sheesh
The Colorado Initiative on splitting the EVs is going down, I heard today.
The Colorado Initiative on splitting the EVs is going down, I heard today
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People have been predicting it to fail for a number of weeks, but it is still a potential fly in the ointment. One we need to try in CA in 2008.
I agree. Florida frankly is the make-or-break state. In the EC count, as long as get Florida at least and keep those battlegrounds we are virtually certain of getting....NM, CO, NV, MO, IA....we could pretty much lose all the other midwest battlegrounds and still win, including OH and PA both without getting WI.
I forgot to add that....because FL is not mentioned as much, it is clear that we got it, which is why OH is getting all the attention.
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