GALLUP B49-K47 FL K+3 PA B+4 OH K+4 MN K+8 WI B+8 IA B+2

[montereyp1]

Just released on CNN.

[Petronski]

[monkeyshine]

Well if OH, FL and PA are so close that they change constantly, chances are Bush can grab one of the three, and if he does, he gets very close to the magic number. Two of them, and he wins outright as long as he holds his own (including NV, NM and CO).

[cschroe]

My POV from here in WI: the only way Bush wind up +8 in a poll is if they undersample the People's REpublics of Madison and Milwaukee. No way Bush wins WI by 8. IF he wins, it will be by 2 or less.

[counterpunch]

If these were to hold true, giving Kerry NH, NJ and HI, Bush would win 270 to 268.

[Teslas Pigeon]

Well it is really strange, but we win with these results! Go W!

[txroadkill]

LOL, this will be what Kerry will be showing to Gore Wens. Night while they are slumped over drunk at some bar trading stories about who got the election stolen from them by Bush the worst.

[italianquaker]

GOOD EYE
W2004
CIAO

WITH ALL THE STRESS I DIDNT NOTICE
THNX

[monkeyshine]

"Where would Gallup's breakdown leave the Electoral vote count, assuming all the states not mentioned (non-battleground) go where expected?"

Bush Victory! of exactly 270.

[Rome2000]

http://home.bellsouth.net/p/PWP-hotline

Final National Presidential Poll Results, 1936-2000

National Council on Public Polls - Error Measure
2000-Preliminary

	Gore	Bush	Nader	Un- decided	Other	Gore- Bush	Margin Error Poll - Elect	Candidate Error
Election Result	48%	48%	3%		1%	0%
Zogby	48%	46%	5%	0%	1%	2%	2%	1.0%
CBS	45%	44%	4%	5%	2%	1%	1%	0.5%
Harris (Phone)	47%	47%	5%	0%	1%	0%	0%	0.0%
Gallup/CNN/USA Today	46%	48%	4%	0%	2%	-2%	2%	1.0%
Pew Research	47%	49%	4%	0%	0%	-2%	2%	1.0%
IBD/CSM/Tipp	46%	48%	4%	0%	2%	-2%	2%	1.0%
ICR/Politics Now	44%	46%	7%	1%	2%	-2%	2%	1.0%
NBC/WSJ	44%	47%	3%	4%	2%	-3%	3%	1.5%
ABC/WashPost	45%	48%	3%	3%	1%	-3%	3%	1.5%
Battleground	45%	50%	4%	0%	1%	-5%	5%	2.5%
					Avg. Error		2.2%	1.1%
Alternative Methods
Harris Interactive	47%	47%	4%	0%	2%	0%	0%	0.0%
Rasmussen	49%	40%	4%			9%	9%	4.5%

				THIRD PARTY ERROR
---------------------Allocate Undecided*-----------------------
Gore	Bush	Nader	Other	Nader Error
48%	46%	5.0%	1%	2%	100%
47%	46%	4.0%	2%	1%	100%
47%	47%	5.0%	1%	2%	100%
46%	48%	4.0%	2%	1%	100%
47%	49%	4.0%	0%	1%	100%
46%	48%	4.0%	2%	1%	100%
44%	46%	7.0%	2%	4%	100%
46%	49%	3.0%	2%	0%	100%
46%	49%	3.0%	1%	0%	100%
45%	50%

[ijkrst]

Ummm, wait a minute. The article says Bush is up 49 to 47 %, not 49-49. Is the 49-49 tally a result of their 'statistical allocation' of undecideds? If so, then this makes more sense. Gallup is really guessing on the undecideds but would have Bush with a 2 point lead among LV.

[jennyjenny]

CNN website show Bush 49% and Kerry 47% among LV.

[xuberalles]

I'd bet my life these are wrong...Bush will definitely win Ohio...and most likely florida. I agree he can win wisconsin, but no way by 8 points. These people are ill!

[KoRn]

If those numbers are the outcome here is the map. Get off the ledge everyone.

I don't see it playing this way though

[wildwood]

obviously they need bush and kerry to be tied going into the election so that, when the democrats (the party of 20/20 hindsight) start suing and protesting everything in sight, they will look justified.

the reality that bush is really ahead will be obscured in all the rage.

[LS]

Look at it this way folks: These guys have been wrong all year. They were wrong in 1996; they were wrong in 2000; they were WAY wrong in 2002; and they were BEYOND wrong in 2003. Why in the world would you think they are right now?

Here is what I know: Bush is leading in OH, FL, IA, WI, and MN; he is VERY CLOSE in PA and, yes, NJ. In many of these states, the legal teams have already been assigned to deal with the challenges and fraud!!! The Bush team is that confident.

The only one I'm not real confident about is MI, and yet Francois is having to make a last-minute stop there. Does that sound reasonable?? Folks, at some point you need to just put this crap out of your minds and LET US ON THE GROUND DO OUR JOBS.

I feel like our motto ought to be, "REMEMBER WAYNE ALLARD!" The MSM polls had him down 5% in CO in 2002 and he won by 5%. They were off in a state senate race that they had polled a dozen times by 10% points!!!

Now, either everything I'm seeing, hearing, and being told on the ground is a lie, or the polls are right. You decide.

[GOP]

According to Gallup's #'s Bush still gets 270 Electoral votes. Before everyone totally freaks out they are suicidal over at DU with this poll. They think it is as much a jole as we do. Notice Galluo gives Penn. Wisconsin. and Iowa to Bush. That evens out losing Ohio and Florida. Gallup has gome nuts.

[BlindGuardian]

Screw the polls. BUSH WILL WIN ON ELECTION DAY! NO CONTEST!

[Porterville]

This numbers can't be right--- this bucks the trend of Bush momentum everyone knows is out there. You can sense the Bush momentum.....

[Rightone]

Tradesports.com where people risk their money and has traditionally been much more accurate then the polls, has Bush at 55 and Kerry at 45. A monumental TEN POINT difference.

What's up?

[xuberalles]

What it does tell us...that if bush wins ohio and florida as we expect him too...then this could be a blowout if he picks up penn, wisconisn etc. Then it would make sense.